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Australian economy heading for meltdown!

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by numbercruncher, Jan 23, 2009.

  1. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    Seems we may be barelling down on our date with destiny in the Banana republic !

    The Good readership of ASF would of course long known this and planned accordingly ??

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24930554-953,00.html

    I wonder will Middle class welfare cop it ? Swany need that couple of grand back he recently sent me ?..... its still sitting idle if he does :D
     
  2. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    No need to worry...Kevin has a plan.

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24946546-462,00.html

    Rudd Government moves to rescue Australian businesses

    The federal Government could soon become lender of last resort to Australian
    businesses, with the creation of a multi-billion-dollar scheme partly funded
    through the sale of commonwealth bonds.

    The emergency measure is considered necessary to allow some of Australia's
    biggest companies to roll over existing credit facilities and avert a new wave
    of layoffs and a further plunge in business and consumer confidence....etc.
     
  3. nomore4s

    nomore4s Commonsense isn't that common

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    Just make sure you charge him interest;)
     
  4. Stormin_Norman

    Stormin_Norman Currency Trader

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    bring back keating.
     
  5. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    Corrected for accuracy. ;)
     
  6. Absolutely

    Absolutely

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    I work in resources, prvivate and public civil infrastructure Australia wide. I am a business development manager. Right now I have to say I am not seeeing this massive slow down. On the contrary, we came off a record turnover last year and have brought in to this year a record carryover and are already building on our record and robust order book. Mining continues to be our dominant sector. The level of enquiries if anything is increasing. I have no time to scratch myself at work just trying to meet the level of demand.

    Something is not right here. The story we see in the media does not gel with the massive infrastructure programs either underway or about to get underway in both the public and private sectors I deal in.
     
  7. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    Hiya Absolutely ....


    I think the reason you havnt seen it yet is because it hasnt happened (much) yet ...


    The big tip is that it will "unwind scarily fast" this year ..


    Heaps of mining Industry job losses just this past few days, thousands.
     
  8. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    Perhaps infrastructure lags reality?
     
  9. Glen48

    Glen48 Money can't buy Poverty

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    If Rudd and co. want to spend money they should be getting the High speed broad band up running by spending money in country towns putting up towers, workers ,hire equipment etc the money is going directly where it is needed but first we need a big fight and a few court cases and some time soon like 10 yrs it will be under way and we will be back to using jam tins on a piece of string.
     
  10. pacestick

    pacestick

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    I'm in retail and our sales are up about 8% nationally for January I expect that to unwind a little in the next week
     
  11. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    Ummm. "Retail" covers an awfully wide spectrum of goods and services. It depends on which area of "retail" you primarily deal in as to whether you are feeling the pinch (or worse, a knockout punch) yet.

    So, which is it?

    Retail food?
    Retail clothing?
    Retail electronics?
    Retail jewellry?
    Retail automotive?
    Retail hardware?
    Retail discounter?

    I'd guess that food and hardware stores are doing relatively pretty well atm. Jewellry and automotive maybe not so good, depending on location of shop and surrounding demographic. Discounters? Well, we know where they are heading.

    I get the impression a lot of Aussies are reading about the "big picture" in the media etc. Yet many seem to be lulled by a false sense of security in that their businesses are sitting in micro-economies at the outer edge of the toxic cesspool, where the water is a bit sweeter.

    However, in the end that "plus" factor might not help much, since a REALLY BIG boulder has been tossed into the middle of that cesspool. Those at the deep end have gone under the tsunami real quick - but even those on the outer "safer" edges will eventually feel the effect of the rapidly expanding "circles of pain", which will eventually wash over everyone to some degree.

    IMO


    aj
     
  12. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    Yes and sales up (perhaps because of massive discounting?) doesnt always translate into profits up just take the company behind bargain retailers Go-Lo, Crazy Clark's and Sam's Warehouse just fallen into receivership potentially costing 2700 jobs .....

    ;)
     
  13. Aussiejeff

    Aussiejeff

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    How quickly they forget that "Federal Government" = "Citizens of Australia". They are supposed to govern "on our behalf" - though you would take THAT with a big pinch of Cynical Salts.

    So, in effect KRudd & Co. are saying WE, the PEOPLE will effectively become the "lenders of last resort" to BAIL OUT many companies and businesses, many of which may NOT deserve to be bailed out.

    Yet KRudd & Co. WILL DO SO, regardless of whether the citizens of Australia feel it is fair or just, simply because they are now in a blind panic to save thgeir lobbying business mates and supporters from a crash in their luxuriant lifestyles.

    Here's what I think would be 3 better ideas to start with.

    (a) Since cushy, executive Government jobs are the least at risk in this unfolding scenario, how about ALL Federal, State & Local Government ministers and executives agree to slash their perks & incomes by 25% starting next month? LEAD BY EXAMPLE!

    (b) STOP promising endless and unlimited financial support to big businesses and banks. This is a CORRUPT and UNFAIR policy - especially to the 100's of 1,000's of small & medium business owners and their MILLIONS of employees - many of whom will face the dole queue because a BIG business has been favoured with a bail out over their smaller one.

    (c) Bail outs should only be considered on MERIT - NOT size. ie: Is the business more productive? Does the business have VERY GOOD potential for future productivity IF it is bailed out etc... etc...



    aj
     
  14. moXJO

    moXJO menace to society

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    It’s a very hard thing to pick. I was saying the same thing a few months back. I was flat out with work (construction) till oct-nov 2008. But now things have slowed down. We have a lot of quotes out there but now they are very slow to come back. A lot of the time we are beaten on price by a substantial amount. Others I know are going out of business. And a lot of different companies that were affected before us are folding, after hanging on as long as they could.
    This whole process is very slow moving. It nibbles at each sector until they collapse. Which in turn then affects those sectors that service them and so on. It "moving slowly" is probably the worst thing that can happen As you do not even realize there is a problem until it’s too late. If you keep a good stock of cash and low debt then you should be fine.

    It’s still a bit of a mixed bag, infrastructure should boom given govt stimulus.
     
  15. MrBurns

    MrBurns

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    This scares the crap out of me, Rudd really does think he's smart enough to pull a stunt like this and get away with it, but he's not.

    He will stuff it up and the debt this will create for us on top of everything else will be just too much.

    How dare he delve into this type of activity he has not got a mandate to bankrupt you, me and future generations.

    Lets hope the Libs can slow him down at least.

    Geez people THINK before you vote next time.
     
  16. gfresh

    gfresh

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    Do they know something the general public doesn't know yet? ;) just a little something the banks may have told them, you know, something minor about all their international lines of credit about to be completely cut-off sometime in the next 12 months.

    I'm NOT a fan of being indebted for all my future working years, simply for the idiots of today. Let them suffer (along with me if so be it), but eventually things will settle, and growth will return on it's own.

    The process is already starting to occur with companies scaling back, reducing production, etc.. It's all going the way things should go, where eventually supply will be unable to meet demand once again... but if the government sticks their finger in, and messes with this process, then who knows what the longer-term consequences could be, and which things will simply fall off a cliff later on once the stimulus can no longer be applied and/or the money runs out.

    Seems ironic (crazy?) that companies and individuals are doing whatever they can to reduce their levels of indebtedness, yet the Government is hell-bent on taking on as much as possible!
     
  17. Bushman

    Bushman

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    ....and especially if they are going to run up a large foreign debt to fund it, robbing future generations to ease unemployment for 6-months.

    They said we should back globalisation; so back it warts and all. Take this time to increase productive capacity so that we can become a full service provider for the future global engine room, China and India.

    Then again, election terms last 4 years, right? So borrow, finance 'bread and circuses', dividends and part-time employment, and leave the brown stuff for the next bloke/sheila and their constituents. Worked for the Yanks after all.
     
  18. Dowdy

    Dowdy

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    We're heading for meltdown because Rudd is copying the US. The US gave a $31b stimulus, didn't work. Rudd blew $10b on stimulus, didn't work.

    The only thing keep our housing market up is the inflationary government grant.

    What is going to happen is commercial property will collapse due to all the retail stores shutting down (the government isn't going to give 'first commercial property grant') then housing will follow
     
  19. noirua

    noirua

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    This contagion does seem to be affecting all in a sector eventually, as you infer moXJO. Only the biggest and the strongest seem to survive. Many companies move to a no profit mode as they price contracts and cut pay - only way to survive for some.

    In America and Europe the largest stores see that they can only increase turnover, by selling some items at such low prices that they drive others out of business as they've no chance of competing.
    Every few days a big store picks on a few items and crashes the price by up to 66% and then piles them high.

    Survival of the fittest, as they see this recession going on to 2012 and beyond.
     
  20. MrBurns

    MrBurns

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    Spot on, commercial property is already stuffed but this will be a new low.
     
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