Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Joined
8 June 2008
Posts
9,844
Reactions
12,681
Just when you think that things couldn't get any worse for the AUD. Taking a nose dive after Interest Rate Hike, showing just how much the AUD is under selling pressure. Long overdue for a correction I say, but when will that happen; Analyst Suggested,
The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6751 and 0.6781).

Preference:
The downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance.
Alternative scenario:
The upside breakout of 0.6761, would call for 0.6795 and 0.6815.
View attachment 146450
I look at the year trend and will sell around 66c and not all of parcel..but not doing daily trade
 

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
Joined
2 January 2006
Posts
11,777
Reactions
5,446
I agree it will be tough for the AUD today.

More though from fundamentals although your TA seems reasonable on the face of it.

We will see 0.6700 or lower soon imo.

A v. strong USD. China still locked down. Russia going the full Nazi and looking at a v. poor Aftermath, and Europe as usual a bloodthirsty mob of self interest feeling the chill.

gg
As I mentioned above I felt the AUD might find support at 0.6700

Looking at last night's forex action this would seem to be optimistic.

This is very good for Gold, so even as Gold retreats it keeps its value in AUD.

If Gold takes off and the AUD stays low or goes lower, then it will be Christmas on a stick.

gg
 
Joined
4 December 2010
Posts
507
Reactions
1,078
Is that good thing or a bad thing?..Looking at current market conditions! (bad thing)
I'm not too worried about the market. Its the old "hip pocket nerve" which gets all my attention. In my mind, its a good thing for the RBA to keep raising rates. I like the idea of being able to take some of the risk out of the futures market and putting it back into term deposits.

As far as AUD / USD goes, I have a short futures position in M6A (AUD - from 0.6883), which was added to last night. Its all systematic, a combination of moving averages, breakout and carry. I don't target an exit price, just hold the position until the system is ready to reverse. Its only numbers, so no pretty charts to look at, but, as I said a few days ago, I'm comfortable being short AUD.

KH
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
The AUD a bit overdue, for a correction and to go north. Balance of trade, Imports, Exports results are in today and it all looks positive, they say there is a boom on Imports at the moment. And this should excel the AUD higher, plus the US market looks quite. Analyst have suggested a rebound north off support 0.6731. A fair call giving todays conditions...
The RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6731 and 0.6725).

Preference:
The upside prevails as long as 0.6731 is support.
Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6731, expect 0.6696 and 0.6676.

1662587765263.png
 
Last edited:

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
After Yesterday's day of uncertainty, the AUD sits perched at the bottom end of the scale, looking for some up turn in momentum. It doesn't appear to keen in this, but with a weaker looking USD today it might prevail...Analyst have suggested 0.6718 as a pivot point...

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6742 and 0.6744).

Preference:
The upside prevails as long as 0.6718 is support. Looking for 0.6814.

Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6718, expect 0.6683 and 0.6663.

1662673037545.png
 
Last edited:

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
AUD regaining confidence and momentum on a high yesterday, much the same expected for today. Not much on the economic front for AUD/USD. Analysis suggests highs again with 0.6808 support, looking for 0.6909. A fair analysis considering the robust form the AUD has taken up.

The RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is below its 20 period moving average (0.6841) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6823).

Preference:
As long as 0.6808 is support look for 0.6909.

Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6808, expect 0.6773 and 0.6752.

1662933994687.png
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
What's in it for the AUD today. Analyst suggesting further upturn from pivot point support of 0.6848 looking for 0.6944. Not much in it as far as movement goes. But suspect the alternative scenario below 0.6848. I chance it, that it's a stronger USD.

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is below its 20 period moving average (0.6881) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6862).

Preference:
As long as 0.6848 is support look for 0.6944.

Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6848, expect 0.6813 and 0.6792.

1663017116129.png
 
Joined
8 June 2008
Posts
9,844
Reactions
12,681
Well happy to have bought a few USD (etf) yesterday and hope none of the daily traders here got burnt as outch
Screenshot_20220914_051917.jpg
I got aware of inflation data release calendar thanks to the forum so thank you
 
Joined
8 June 2008
Posts
9,844
Reactions
12,681
The AUD had fallen 2.4% against the USD about 1 minute ago.
So USD uberall
And the worst is:
This is the supposedly leader of the US
..,
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
But suspect the alternative scenario below 0.6848. I chance it, that it's a stronger USD.
AUD would appear to be on downward spiral, after yesterdays fall from mid term highs. Still looking at the lower highs lower lows situation that seems obsolete, this pattern appears immanent due to US Inflation figures and hikes, boosting over the AUD. Analyst suggest that more downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance. Pressure in on the AUD.

The RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6801 and 0.6850).

Our preference:
The downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance. look for 0.6663

Alternative scenario:
Above 0.6761, look for 0.6795 and 0.6815.

1663108508740.png
 
Joined
4 December 2010
Posts
507
Reactions
1,078
yes, but ... even though I don't discretionary trade, and my futures system still wants to be short AUD futures ..

on both your 30 minute chart, and this daily chart, MACD is about to go positive. Also, longish term support is just below where we are now. Its either going to crash through support, or rise quickly again. A coin toss ..

Screenshot 2022-09-14 at 11-22-20 $AUDUSD - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (EOD).png

KH
 

Stockbailx

"Profit Compoundd" Rules
Joined
10 May 2021
Posts
632
Reactions
503
yes, but ... even though I don't discretionary trade, and my futures system still wants to be short AUD futures ..

on both your 30 minute chart, and this daily chart, MACD is about to go positive. Also, longish term support is just below where we are now. Its either going to crash through support, or rise quickly again. A coin toss ..

View attachment 146798

KH
Fair Call!
Longer range charts are certainly the way to go. But for today I can only see a commitment to lower lows, sinking through and ca lapsing past support. but hard to say, can go either way, I'm looking to go short, below support, should price meet short target of 0.6663. The AUD would be looking to go long for future reference. Just in case took a long position above 0.6761.
If a weekly chart was any to go by momentum is short by any means. looking for the lower low, to retrace long, tomorrow...

1663121978834.png
 
Last edited:
Joined
8 June 2008
Posts
9,844
Reactions
12,681
Joined
6 September 2016
Posts
1,052
Reactions
1,396
yes, but ... even though I don't discretionary trade, and my futures system still wants to be short AUD futures ..

on both your 30 minute chart, and this daily chart, MACD is about to go positive. Also, longish term support is just below where we are now. Its either going to crash through support, or rise quickly again. A coin toss ..


KH

A bit more of the "if it goes up it's going up and if it goes down it's going down" TA eh?

To me the main observation is that AUD and other commdolls diverging by not making new lows compared to currencies from commodity importer countries like JPY, EUR, GBP that can't help but make new lows. Will it be enough to hold them up? 🤷‍♂️
 
Joined
4 December 2010
Posts
507
Reactions
1,078
Will it be enough to hold them up?
Don't know. All my systems (combination of moving average and breakout) tell me to be short anything against the USD, and the systems have been saying that for quite a while. Apart from the fact that these type of trend following systems (MA and BO) have a history of give-back when the trend stutters, goes sideways or changes, I'm happy short.

We'll soon see how long my happiness lasts.

KH
 
Top