- 8 June 2008
Well kind of makes sense then.. thanks.It should but i think usd is just climbing higher , US fed rates might actually jump much higher quicker so aud is down down down
AUD/USD building confidence, managed to rebound off the 200ema, early this morning, now looking at a possible swing back into bullish territory, but highly unlikely. It's give or take as momentum in its present form moving sideways with every indication of a bull swing to close off the day. Of course its early days and it could go either way. AU Gold is holding up solid. The swing up is just a near term premonition, and looks unlikely in the long term...AUD has rebounded with a positive note, coming of recent lows ending yesterday...Watching with great interest as to how high its intent on going. As an investor I'm hoping highs to continue on to the top of 1hr Fib Retracement. Or at best surge to the 200ema bounce to retrace to the top of Fib. A bit of a prospect after there has been a interest rate hike, giving the AUD more confidence going forward.
View attachment 142933
|With the AUD/USD consolidating a range sideways yesterday...It could go either way, looking for the breakout today...Here's what analyst had to say this morning;|
AUD/USD intraday: as long as 0.6939 is support look for 0.7041
|pivot point stands at 0.6939.|
|As long as 0.6939 is support look for 0.7041.|
|Below 0.6939, expect 0.6903 and 0.6881.|
|The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6969 and 0.6967).|
|The upside prevails as long as 0.6816 is support.|
|Below 0.6816, expect 0.6785 and 0.6767.|
|The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6835 and 0.6815).|
Do not forget China, the more the US push them, the more the US allies pay.AUD/USD going against the grain again this morning dropping even further short, after yesterday Interest rate decision to raise rates 0.5%.
The weirdest thing happened the AUD fell like a ton of bricks. Negative consensus across the AU board, may have contributed to the fact the AUD fell instead of rising in conjunction with the rate hike. If I was a gambling man, I would of lost me bundles of joy over it.
In the shorter term you would expect The AUD to bounce back, but the negative consensus keeping the AUD short and struggling to find resistance. In the longer term I predict AUD to fall further to 0.667...
|AUD/USD intraday: as long as 0.6954 is support look for 0.7028|
|AUD/USD expected by analyst to climb further more today, 0.6954 a turning point for the AUD. My personal preference a few days ago. Was the the AUD to fall to a low of 0.671 by the end of the month. Interesting to see how it pans out?|
|Our pivot point stands at 0.6954.|
|As long as 0.6954 is support look for 0.7028.|
|Below 0.6954, expect 0.6928 and 0.6913.|
|The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6985) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6950).|
Yesterday I posted that the AUD was to fall the the figure of 0.6954. The AUD is now in its morning range on that mark. Analyst suggested to be looking for the mark of 0.7028. With the AUD market moving with low/slow momentum it could go either way. Today I'll be looking at 0.6980 as a breaking point give or take the direction the AUD is heading for today if any? Also looking for a break below its present range?That’s an extremely interesting technical analysis. The pair tested a break above 0.7000 yesterday after holding support around 0.6900 on Monday, but this week’s US inflation data is also likely to play a big role in near-term direction.
Recent speculation that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness has seen the US Dollar pullback its mid-July high, and a soft CPI print on Wednesday should bolster this sentiment. This could help AUD/USD retest 0.7000, and a break of this key level may even put the pair’s 200-day MA in sight as USD bulls continue to take profit.
However, all trading carries risk, and after the blow-out NFP report on Friday, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading may spark a retracement as the market reprices for continued aggression from the Fed.
Just looking at some fundamentals my guess is that the AUD:USD will be closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 before the end of the year.
Oh, and don't do your own research. ( Those muppets at ASIC can't even catch the real crooks in Mossman and Toorak )
- Aussie Central Bank timidity on increasing interest rates.
- Australia is a quarry.
- No manufacturing base.
- When the s**t hits the fan with the European and Chinese wars commerce will cease
- Blocked supply chains.
- No demand for Australia's quarry assets iron, coal, copper, PMs.
- Quarries always last to kick in when demand for bricks return after overseas manufacturing resumes.
I've got enough Gold now.
I'm buying anything denominated in USD e.g watches.
I'll sell em again when AUD/USD goes back up to 0.8000
Well... " Closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 could be 0.5999 ".that's a big drop with only 4 months to go. If that is the case, I'm very pleased that I started buying US shares at $0.80 and kept going until $0.75. Might have to contemplate selling them at $0.50, though the tax man won't be nice.