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It should but i think usd is just climbing higher , US fed rates might actually jump much higher quicker so aud is down down down
Well kind of makes sense then.. thanks.

US Fed supposedly hiking rates tomorrow morning (our time) by another 0.75 basis points but possibly even a full 1.0
 

Stockybailz

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AUD has rebounded with a positive note, coming of recent lows ending yesterday...Watching with great interest as to how high its intent on going. As an investor I'm hoping highs to continue on to the top of 1hr Fib Retracement. Or at best surge to the 200ema bounce to retrace to the top of Fib. A bit of a prospect after there has been a interest rate hike, giving the AUD more confidence going forward.

1655339406907.png
 
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Stockybailz

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AUD has rebounded with a positive note, coming of recent lows ending yesterday...Watching with great interest as to how high its intent on going. As an investor I'm hoping highs to continue on to the top of 1hr Fib Retracement. Or at best surge to the 200ema bounce to retrace to the top of Fib. A bit of a prospect after there has been a interest rate hike, giving the AUD more confidence going forward.

View attachment 142933
AUD/USD building confidence, managed to rebound off the 200ema, early this morning, now looking at a possible swing back into bullish territory, but highly unlikely. It's give or take as momentum in its present form moving sideways with every indication of a bull swing to close off the day. Of course its early days and it could go either way. AU Gold is holding up solid. The swing up is just a near term premonition, and looks unlikely in the long term...
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Just looking at the fall in the AUD/USD one hour ago, I would say many US funds were topping up on Aussie stocks today.

They must see us as a safe haven.

Don't ask me what the times on the X axis are.


gg
 

Stockybailz

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Going out of a whim here and predicting AUD/USD to rise today. Indications to me show the tide is turning foe the AUD and I expect it to be up for most of the day. Pushing AU Gold prices down...

1655771167961.png
 

Stockybailz

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With the AUD/USD consolidating a range sideways yesterday...It could go either way, looking for the breakout today...Here's what analyst had to say this morning;

AUD/USD intraday: as long as 0.6939 is support look for 0.7041
pivot point stands at 0.6939.
preference:
As long as 0.6939 is support look for 0.7041.
Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6939, expect 0.6903 and 0.6881.
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6969 and 0.6967).

1655846853194.png
 

Stockybailz

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AUD/USD looks to be ranging side ways towards the top half of trading yesterday, expect it to continue on that form for most of the day, however with sp bouncing of 0 fib and retracing backwards into that range, momentum looks in favor of a breakout above 69240. Alternatively below 68753...Early into the trading day and don't ext much from the AUD fighting for higher territory...

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AUD/USD is trading higher following stronger-than-expected retail sales figures:

AU Retail Sales (MoM) May: 0.9% (est. 0.4%)

This could potentially bolster local sentiment, and when coupled with the news of China cutting quarantine time, may help the pair hold above 0.6900 this week.

However, all trading carries risk, and AUD/USD could still break lower as weak consumer confidence from the US delt fuelled global recession concerns.
 
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Despite a less aggressive tightening cycle from the RBA relative to the Fed, steep losses in commodities, and the US Dollar catching a bid from recession fears last night, AUD/USD is still managing to hold support at 0.6800 on closing basis.

Australian inflation is forecast to hit 7% this year, and if the pair continues to hold this level over the coming weeks, a strong CPI print at the end of the month may spark a rebound on increased speculation that the RBA will be more aggressive, or at least front-load their rate hikes, at upcoming meetings.

All trading carries risk, and we still need to get through this week’s FOMC Minutes and key US employment data, but it will be worth keeping an eye on how this develops.
 

Stockybailz

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Looking at a buy opportunity for the AUD/USD as pivot point 0.6816 has been reached and the tide is turning seeing some up side or down side to prevail:

Preference:
The upside prevails as long as 0.6816 is support.
Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6816, expect 0.6785 and 0.6767.
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6835 and 0.6815).
 

Stockybailz

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AUD/USD going against the grain again this morning dropping even further short, after yesterday Interest rate decision to raise rates 0.5%.
The weirdest thing happened the AUD fell like a ton of bricks. Negative consensus across the AU board, may have contributed to the fact the AUD fell instead of rising in conjunction with the rate hike. If I was a gambling man, I would of lost me bundles of joy over it.
In the shorter term you would expect The AUD to bounce back, but the negative consensus keeping the AUD short and struggling to find resistance. In the longer term I predict AUD to fall further to 0.667...
 
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AUD/USD going against the grain again this morning dropping even further short, after yesterday Interest rate decision to raise rates 0.5%.
The weirdest thing happened the AUD fell like a ton of bricks. Negative consensus across the AU board, may have contributed to the fact the AUD fell instead of rising in conjunction with the rate hike. If I was a gambling man, I would of lost me bundles of joy over it.
In the shorter term you would expect The AUD to bounce back, but the negative consensus keeping the AUD short and struggling to find resistance. In the longer term I predict AUD to fall further to 0.667...
Do not forget China, the more the US push them, the more the US allies pay.
Question is:
are the Us doing a Ukraine play with Taipei,
And if they do , who will be the ones to suffer/pay the price
For Ukraine EU
For Taiwan, i think Oz and Japan/Korea
So yes bull USD, bear AUD in that context
 

Stockybailz

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AUD/USD intraday: as long as 0.6954 is support look for 0.7028
AUD/USD expected by analyst to climb further more today, 0.6954 a turning point for the AUD. My personal preference a few days ago. Was the the AUD to fall to a low of 0.671 by the end of the month. Interesting to see how it pans out?
Our pivot point stands at 0.6954.
Preference:
As long as 0.6954 is support look for 0.7028.
Alternative scenario:
Below 0.6954, expect 0.6928 and 0.6913.
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6985) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6950).

1660000882468.png
 
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That’s an extremely interesting technical analysis. The pair tested a break above 0.7000 yesterday after holding support around 0.6900 on Monday, but this week’s US inflation data is also likely to play a big role in near-term direction.

Recent speculation that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness has seen the US Dollar pullback its mid-July high, and a soft CPI print on Wednesday should bolster this sentiment. This could help AUD/USD retest 0.7000, and a break of this key level may even put the pair’s 200-day MA in sight as USD bulls continue to take profit.

However, all trading carries risk, and after the blow-out NFP report on Friday, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading may spark a retracement as the market reprices for continued aggression from the Fed.
 

Stockybailz

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That’s an extremely interesting technical analysis. The pair tested a break above 0.7000 yesterday after holding support around 0.6900 on Monday, but this week’s US inflation data is also likely to play a big role in near-term direction.

Recent speculation that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness has seen the US Dollar pullback its mid-July high, and a soft CPI print on Wednesday should bolster this sentiment. This could help AUD/USD retest 0.7000, and a break of this key level may even put the pair’s 200-day MA in sight as USD bulls continue to take profit.

However, all trading carries risk, and after the blow-out NFP report on Friday, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading may spark a retracement as the market reprices for continued aggression from the Fed.
Yesterday I posted that the AUD was to fall the the figure of 0.6954. The AUD is now in its morning range on that mark. Analyst suggested to be looking for the mark of 0.7028. With the AUD market moving with low/slow momentum it could go either way. Today I'll be looking at 0.6980 as a breaking point give or take the direction the AUD is heading for today if any? Also looking for a break below its present range?

1660087979288.png
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Just looking at some fundamentals my guess is that the AUD:USD will be closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 before the end of the year.

  • Aussie Central Bank timidity on increasing interest rates.
  • Australia is a quarry.
  • No manufacturing base.
  • When the s**t hits the fan with the European and Chinese wars commerce will cease
  • Blocked supply chains.
  • No demand for Australia's quarry assets iron, coal, copper, PMs.
  • Quarries always last to kick in when demand for bricks return after overseas manufacturing resumes.
Oh, and don't do your own research. ( Those muppets at ASIC can't even catch the real crooks in Mossman and Toorak )

I've got enough Gold now.

I'm buying anything denominated in USD e.g watches.

I'll sell em again when AUD/USD goes back up to 0.8000

gg
 
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Just looking at some fundamentals my guess is that the AUD:USD will be closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 before the end of the year.

  • Aussie Central Bank timidity on increasing interest rates.
  • Australia is a quarry.
  • No manufacturing base.
  • When the s**t hits the fan with the European and Chinese wars commerce will cease
  • Blocked supply chains.
  • No demand for Australia's quarry assets iron, coal, copper, PMs.
  • Quarries always last to kick in when demand for bricks return after overseas manufacturing resumes.
Oh, and don't do your own research. ( Those muppets at ASIC can't even catch the real crooks in Mossman and Toorak )

I've got enough Gold now.

I'm buying anything denominated in USD e.g watches.

I'll sell em again when AUD/USD goes back up to 0.8000

gg

that's a big drop with only 4 months to go. If that is the case, I'm very pleased that I started buying US shares at $0.80 and kept going until $0.75. Might have to contemplate selling them at $0.50, though the tax man won't be nice.
 

Garpal Gumnut

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that's a big drop with only 4 months to go. If that is the case, I'm very pleased that I started buying US shares at $0.80 and kept going until $0.75. Might have to contemplate selling them at $0.50, though the tax man won't be nice.
Well... " Closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 could be 0.5999 ". :)

I too am amazed how some of my albeit small punts on US Markets are stable in a falling market.

gg
 

Stockybailz

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What's do you know and to be going on with the AUD/USD this Friday? After a week of slow momentum moving the AUD higher, throughout this session. And the AUD sitting on highs at present, what will the day bring...I can't say much about the economic front for the AUD besides a negative forecast for New Home Sales MOM JUL of 0.8% compared to a previous of 1.9%, later in the evening. This fact would exhaust the AUD today from highs, and should see the AUD retrace south.
I'm not very confident but this seems like a opportunity for a pending sell position, of 0.70812 looking for target 0.69414. This is my own analysis... But analyst say it will rise to to pivot point 0.7129 looking for target 0.7045, looking like a more probable position...Interesting to see how it pans out if there is to be any significant movement at all today...

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