• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Hello and welcome to Aussie Stock Forums!

To gain full access you must register. Registration is free and takes only a few seconds to complete.

Already a member? Log in here.

AUD/USD

Discussion in 'Forex and Cryptocurrencies' started by traderino, Apr 13, 2006.

  1. Triple B

    Triple B

    Posts:
    612
    Likes Received:
    200
    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2017
    Yah .Ihave been short AUD against USD and JPY last couple days. I believe many orders under 0.70 USD .(long holders stop losses) may be responsible for the flash.See it all the time on shorter timeframe , good to see it play out on the longer TF too.
    I intend to hold with stops in profit. Been waiting for this for weeks.
    Gold is also making a strong move ATM and $1300 During NY tonight looks like a good thing.
     
    sasch likes this.
  2. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Thoughts on AUDUSD target after Thursday/Friday move?

    I find it amusing financial reporters mixed messages.
    Bloomberg reporter after AUDUSD flash down saying AUDUSD will stay around the .70 handle. I think he just wanted to say 'Handle'. Wait and see I spose.

    And in another:
    First NZDUSD bullish:
    https://dailypriceaction.com/daily-setup/nzdusd-weekly-bullish-pin-bar-points-to-higher-prices
    Then 10 hrs later another reporter NZDUSD bearish
    https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techn...tinue-Slide-NZDCAD-Faces-2016-Resistance.html
     
  3. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    For those interested, it appears a good wick still holds good probability in spot forex amongst all the algo's , albeit on longer time frames now days.
    A small attempt was made at a fade after market open (as always) and this can be seen on the crosses, but all sessions were buying the AUD so they had little hope.
    USD is coming off nicely so this should be a nice move.
     

    Attached Files:

    sasch, T0BY and Kryzz like this.
  4. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Target ~ 0.73470 to where the trapped money was (now blown out with the squeeze and spike).
     

    Attached Files:

  5. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    I find it interesting that general traders are baffled by the AUD rising, then attempt to rationalize it, or a financial reporter then writes an article justify the move.
    It's just big players via algo's moving the market to close out positions.
    There are a lot of positions yet to be closed out right up to 0.73050, then another step up to 0.73700. See previous post chart.
    After today's effort we should see another push tonight up to ~0.72500
     
  6. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Didn't quite reach 72.5 on the overnight grind. Still more hidden gaps above (while more develop below), with big positions above yet to be closed.

    Just thought I would add my trades to show I am not full of it.

    Reasonable effort being used to shake traders out at this level, hence all my small positions. USD/CHF still has upside potential so this is starting to get messy. Once this pair finally reaches the ~0.73750 level and gives signals there just may be some valid reasons to look at some shorts, but these daily wicks do hold some punch.

    AUDUSD T1.png
    AUDUSD T2.png
     
    sasch, T0BY and greggles like this.
  7. InsvestoBoy

    InsvestoBoy

    Posts:
    188
    Likes Received:
    98
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2016
    What defines a hidden gap?
     
  8. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Hi Investo,
    Just an indicator I developed which has proved itself over time. There are various formulas and indicators out there which highlight these retrace-able areas.
     
  9. InsvestoBoy

    InsvestoBoy

    Posts:
    188
    Likes Received:
    98
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2016
    Did you develop it? Because I remember following a FX trader on forexfactory.com since 2009 who calls themselves HiddenGap and has a pretty clear definition of what one is...

    https://www.forexfactory.com/hiddengap
     
  10. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Had a quick look and he/she has some interesting posts, couldn't see their definition tho.
    Looks like they may have answered your general question.
     
  11. InsvestoBoy

    InsvestoBoy

    Posts:
    188
    Likes Received:
    98
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2016
    From memory their definition is large spread/range candles with no or small wicks, something like that.

    But you're just gonna say this:

    and then this

    and then not define what you're talking about?
     
  12. InsvestoBoy

    InsvestoBoy

    Posts:
    188
    Likes Received:
    98
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2016
    from: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4805164#post4805164

    found it from some quick googling...

    so are you saying you developed this indicator?
     
    peter2 likes this.
  13. cogs

    cogs

    Posts:
    358
    Likes Received:
    28
    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2007
    Hi Investo,

    I am not sure where you got the idea anywhere that I said 'I developed the system, coding or indicator you are referring to', but I guess you are entitled to misinterpret any posting that anyone shares on this forum.

    In addition, I have not mentioned I need to, (or intend to) define anything I am talking about. Quite simply take it or leave it. Many others have liked what I am sharing, it would be so easy for me to just not post at all.

    I use my own proprietary systems and indicators coded for use on CTrader. I have my own coder O/S. If you follow what everyone else uses and does, expect the same results.

    I think your agenda is beginning to be made quite clear now. Do you have anything to share about AUDUSD?
     
  14. InsvestoBoy

    InsvestoBoy

    Posts:
    188
    Likes Received:
    98
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2016
    When I asked "how do you define a hidden gap", you literally said:
    My agenda is as usual to try and understand what people are doing and whether there is anything worthwhile there.

    I follow hundreds of quantitative systems and strategies which cover all different kinds of ways of looking at the market. If I see people talking about something which isn't clear, then I question it, to understand if it's something new to add or another take on something I already know about.
     
  15. thomasc

    thomasc

    Posts:
    8
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2019
    Does anyone know what caused that huge down wick in the AUD? Was there some unexpected news at the time?
     
  16. Triple B

    Triple B

    Posts:
    612
    Likes Received:
    200
    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2017
    This is my take on it .
    We can see here blue arrow sydney open . as price nears 75.00Jpy tick vol increases.
    This is tick vol from Deuschbank my brokers main liquidity provider.
    We can assume that most small traders would have been looking for the bounce off 75.00 this is what retail traders do. (get it wrong most of the time)
    As price was easily pushed down by big sellers due to thin trading ,longs stop loss orders were hit(the red candle crossing 75.00).
    There were then almost no orders below this candle . The orders that were matched were well below the 75.00. no buying happening just selling . eventually buyers (sellers taking profit and bargain hunting) step in and price is pushed back up.
    Also note at this time the AUD/USD had just broken below 70.00 the previous day. so many long stops there were ready to be hit at the same time. If this was a campaign from the big bank (s) they look to see if at least a couple major markets are at a significant level, then campaign to hit the stops in both the markets at around the same time. Thinly traded markets help facilitate this by being easier to manipulate due to less orders to chew through.
    Have a look at the shorter timeframes over time and you will see mini flashes as two or more pairs reach significant levels, and then the stop hunt triggers in one pair , then triggers the rest.
    The balance of the market is upset quite easily
    AUDJPY.rM1.png
     
    sasch likes this.
  17. thomasc

    thomasc

    Posts:
    8
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2019
    Thanks for the interesting analysis. So it is market manipulation at work...might be a good strategy to look for unusual down candles profit from the rebound provided there is no negative news that triggered the fall in the first place.
     
  18. sasch

    sasch

    Posts:
    71
    Likes Received:
    21
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2008
    Hi thomasc,

    I would be careful with this strategy if you are starting out, as more often than not you will be flattened by the downward momentum. This happened in a matter of minutes. When do you pick the bottom?

    There had already been big falls for a number of days before this and according to my broker over 90% retail traders at the time were expecting the price to rise, while the price continued down on a daily basis.

    It would have been easier to go with the downward momentum in the days proceeding the crash, with a trailing stop loss. The below screenshot is an AUD/JPY daily chart.
    aud-jpy daily.PNG
     
    cynic likes this.
  19. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

    Posts:
    2,875
    Likes Received:
    461
    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2007
    smooth downward path, series lower highs n lower lows, then the flush, the deep pockets want 70's and ripped weak longs then ripped weak shorts, but, importantly 70 was an easy round number to get the supply...ask where would deep pockets be sitting, what is the % percentage in the move.....that was a big % swing, and what was the swing in the context of the weekly ranges ?

    the 78.62 was a covering bar, sure, but if trading that mechanical style it needed confirmation, no convincing signal to be long as the next the bar ran the whole width of the previous "breakout fakeout bar then closed lower than 50% so again, signal of fake bar daily basis ...fakes for bar watchers
     
    sasch likes this.
Loading...

Share This Page