Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AUD/NZD

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Dear Forex Traders,

I just need some technical/fundamental advice on the current state of AUDNZD... Do you see it hitting 1.30 anytime soon? What's your thoughts...

I range trade currently and did a stupid 1.0 trade impulsively and now very nervous!

Account Balance: $27k + $10k being processed on Monday... Balance will then be $37k

2 x 1.0 MONSTER trades....

AUDNZD 1.0 CURRENT LOSS: $668.68

AND

EURCHF 1.0 CURRENT LOSS: $27.87

LIVE STATS HERE: cashnet.mt4live.com

I close the EURCHF definetly on Monday for a loss of hopefully under $100.

ANY SUGGESTIONS OF ANY OTHER TRADES I SHOULD CLOSE OR LEAVE OPEN? HEDGE OR NOT? (Purely as a trading exercise)

Now, about the AUDNZD trade... I really do not know what I want to do. Is it possible the AUDNZD will reach 1.30? Crystal ball?

In March this year it hit 1.29 and took approx 7 weeks to drop back down.

Julian, are you really sure about this "false" economic data? I really do hope so...

I will also not play with the magic numbers.

Anyone know where I can use a forex calculator that can advise me of how much margin I will need for the 1.0 AUDNZD trade if it does hit 1.30. I need a simple one as i'm not very good at maths.

Once again... Thanks for your support I'm sorry to have burdened you with this.
 
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Re: AUDNZD

What do you mean by trouble there? My margin may be called? Price will breakout to high 1.29 or 1.30. What kind of hedge strategy could I use? I'm very worried.

Here is all the details of my ****ty trades: forum.forex-assistant.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=283

some advice would be great. Thanks for reply already.

Anyone have any ideas or suggestions?
 
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Re: AUDNZD

What do you mean by trouble there?
Big trendline that will see a good chance of reversal if price reaches it. Almost none of your post makes sense to me :confused:.
 
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Re: AUDNZD

from what Ive read, he's using an EA and worried that price will get to 1.29 area... of course there are no stop losses...

what i recomend is you stop using the EA and learn to trade as soon as you close all positions, its only a 10% hit and is a great lesson (one that 99% of us will or have taken)
 
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Re: AUDNZD

My brief googling suggests EA = electronic advisor, so would that mean he's bought a system/software or something?
 
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Re: AUDNZD

can i suggest you stop trading immediatley.

I hope that is a demo account?

you need some money management.

you are going to blow that hole account. take a step back and learn money management
 
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AUD/NZD December 12, 2010



Current Price: 1.3163
Resistance Levels: 1.3275, 1.3380, 1.3505, 1.3560
Support Levels: 1.3100, 1.2990, 12950, 1.2815

After breaking above the 1.2950 level, the price swiftly reached our target of 13150. We expect the top to form here within the range of 1.3158 to 1.3360. It is possible that we may already have a short term top in place at the December 09, 2010 high (1.3213). If this is the case, we would expect a correction down to around the 1.2925 area, from where we expect the next leg of the upward move to start.
 
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Good evening,

today we had a quiet day, from a macroeconomic perspective, and the most important market move will be released in a few hours (the interest rate in New Zealand, which is expected unchanged at 2.50%).
The markets closed a very positive session, expecially for Paris and Madrid, with a weaker euro due to the negative data on manufacturing PMI below expectations.
Tomorrow we will have from Australia the Consumer Price Index and from U.S.A. the Durable Goods.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: the oceanic pair is consolidating around the support area 1.22 /1.2150 within a short term bearish movement. The price is always below the EMA21 with decreasing tops, so a breakout of level 1.2140 might lead to a continuation of the downward trend to 1.2050 as first target area and then, eventually, to the second one at 1.1940. Anyway any trading decision should be taken after the announcement of the interest rate in New Zealand which is just coming in a few hours!
audnzd.jpg

Greetings,
Maurizio
 
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Now another top investor has become bearish on the AUD.

Stanley Druckenmiller, who made $1 billion for George Soros as his chief strategist by forcing a devaluation of the British pound in 1992, said the Australian dollar will come down and will come down hard,"

Japanese investors and another top contrarian investor became bearish on AUD before others and they sold AUD and AUD related bonds before others.

Now I have some concern about AUD after reading following links.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/08/druckenmiller-investors-should-short-australian-dollar/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...nds-betting-against-australian-dollar-1-.html

http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/educat...7079323/the-aussie-dollar-will-come-down-hard

My opinion on the currency market:

There was a time some wanted to touch EURO instead of USD. So they fell in love with EURO. Instead of falling love with it at least they should not have dumped USD to get EURO. There were other bull currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD in addition to few Asian bull currencies.

Now we have to see currency market in a different way. Sooner than later bull currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD will become bear currencies. NZD will hit hard as one of the most overvalued currencies in the world. It can go down sharply. Now USD has become bull currency. We will see beginning of bull markets for few currencies including few Asian currencies. Few Asian currencies can appreciate sharply from 2014.

In short this is the time to become bullish on USD. Later we can become bullish on few more currencies. It is also time to stay away from AUD and NZD. This time Japanese investors and another top contrarian investor became bearish on AUD before others and they sold AUD and AUD related bonds before others.

Recently Japanese investors dumped Australian debt at the fastest pace on record earlier this year. Suddenly market players including bear crowd all became bullish on USA and Japanese market. Some of these crowds not only became bullish on USA market but also on USD number one reserve currency in the world.

In short AUD and NZD dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle and the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle.

In short I am bearish on AUD, NZD and CAD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.
 
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Just on the NZD "as one of the most overvalued currencies in the world" ....

My currency value metrics show the NZD to be only moderately "expensive" against the JPY and CNY, and moderately "cheap" against USD, EUR, GBP.

Checking against the Daily Big Mac Index confirms this view.

AUD on the other hand is expensive against CNY, JPY, USD, GBP and steady against EUR.

CAD is moderately expensive against all currencies.

So the data seems to point that yes some of the comdolls are "overvalued", but NZD is definitely the least overvalued.
 
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Very interesting. AUD is downgrading one by one now.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130607-701062.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
National Australia Bank Slashes Forecast for Aussie Dollar

http://www.rttnews.com/2132049/aust...ype=cm&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=sitemap

Australia, New Zealand Dollars Weaken On Caution Ahead Of U.S., China Data

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites
 
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Market appears to be betting against the expected rate rise in NZ.
A couple of hours ago - Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler has confirmed he expects to raise the benchmark interest rate to about 4.5 percent in the next two years to curb inflation.
And Ausi rallies against it.
 
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If I am correct AUD hit 8 Years low against NZD recently. This situation could change during next 24 months. Just like stock markets currencies also have cycles. I believe NZD could depreciate against USD and GBP faster than AUD. In the medium run and long run NZD could depreciate against AUD rapidly. It is time to study currency cycles. I consider NZD as number on overvalued currency in the world now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
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As it is obvious in the picture below, price in AUD/NZD currency pair from the end of 2011till now was in a Downtrend that Sellers have the price close to the supportive levels’ range of 1995 and 2005.Price has formed a bottom price with reaching to the specified supportive levels in the picture below and it has stopped from more descend and has started a little ascend with shows exit of some Sellers from their trades. Currently price in monthly ,Weekly and daily time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.

In Monthly time frame with formation of hammer candlestick pattern, there is a warning for formation of a bottom price (need to be recorded) and vulnerability of downtrend.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a Gartley pattern between the bottom price of 1.04912 and the top price of 1.09446 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.As it is obvious in the picture below, Stoch indicator is(Daily and h4) in saturation sell area and warns about ascending of the price during the next candles.Generally according to the technical signs in the price chart until the mentioned supportive levels are preserved, the price has the potential to increase and ascend.
 
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