Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Actively managed portfolio journey

in the speculative end ?? ( looking for capital growth in preference to income )

interesting , i would be looking for the other end ( boring/solid stocks being divested to pay anticipated bills )

good luck

In line with my current strategy, resources ETF's are set to hit there target of 20% in the coming 2-3 weeks.

That leaves me with a 90% allocation to income assets, I'm comfortable targeting some capital growth with the remaining 10% :cool:

The dividends that are also paid from my income assets are currently taken as cash then reinvested proportionally. Currently don't have a need to let the cash leave the portfolio. Based on the movements and outlook of the economy however I may look to park some cash into 2Year bonds, the yield is looking very attractive.
 
in the speculative end ?? ( looking for capital growth in preference to income )

interesting , i would be looking for the other end ( boring/solid stocks being divested to pay anticipated bills )

good luck
I am starting to think maybe we have seen the top for the year here . Banks got nowhere to go while rates getting talked up without even taking into account what wounds are likely to be made known in the reports out in next couple weeks . BHP moving at a TO and a class action which isnt bullish . That covers 30% of asx200 , and trolling through the rest im not seeing any compelling what id call investments tbh . Sure will be some swing trades along that journey . I am the guy who holds a lot of cash at certain times and i think thats going to pay .

Big if rates are hiked only need to look back to '22 to see what the reaction might be . It's a year where dynamic thinking will go a long way adjusting to the wind as it turns ( damn i sound like the captain ) hehe . Need a plan A & B with a C&D possibly required .
 
In line with my current strategy, resources ETF's are set to hit there target of 20% in the coming 2-3 weeks.

That leaves me with a 90% allocation to income assets, I'm comfortable targeting some capital growth with the remaining 10% :cool:

The dividends that are also paid from my income assets are currently taken as cash then reinvested proportionally. Currently don't have a need to let the cash leave the portfolio. Based on the movements and outlook of the economy however I may look to park some cash into 2Year bonds, the yield is looking very attractive.
OK ,when explained like that . i can see your logic

i disagree on short-term bonds i would want at least 8% ( return on investment capital , not face value/par ) , all sorts of twists are possible

going to be tough to select a small cap. that can flourish if there is a credit crunch in the next two years

good luck

the upside is , if you survive the next 5 years ( financially ) you will be very experienced
 
Progress Update
this is just a journal/log of what positions I have opened etc. as to keep a record to look back at and I also think someone one day if in a similar position to me, could find it interesting or useful. I have converted 75% of my cash in to index funds on a market order this morning. I have chosen to invest with a weighting of 33% into the following index funds:

Grab.jpg

@BossMan. numerous suggestions have been shared for consideration and I would like to contribute an idea that involves actively managing investments, which combines the best of both worlds - trading and investing. This approach is particularly relevant for individuals in their 20s as it utilises their advantage of time to consider and implement such a strategy. Actively managing investments allows for decision-making based on market conditions while still focusing on long-term investment goals. For instance, consider the timing technique for the three highlighted positions utilising a straightforward MACD indicator.

# 1. VAP

VAP.jpg


# 2. A200

A200.jpg


# 3. VDBA

VDBA.jpg

Skate.
 
For instance, consider the timing technique for the three highlighted positions utilising a straightforward MACD indicator.

Thanks for sharing this, wouldn't of looked in this direction at all if I am to be honest if you hadn't noted the above. Very interesting

The measurement of momentum is something I didn't know existed to be honest. I wrote some code to calculate the value and indicate blue/red on the inflections for the 50 day EMA of A200.AU (I find the best way to understand a concept is to apply it and I enjoy this stuff haha).

I may look at adding some additional elements to take into account the recent volume, expected upcoming news, dividend etc. to see if I can make something to further improve my confidence in picking an entry price. If you have any other technical indicators that you find interesting I am all ears.

1714220919630.png
 
If you have any other technical indicators that you find interesting I am all ears.

@bossman! I’ve made over 300 posts in the 'Dump it here' thread discussing valuable indicators in my trading. To explore these posts, simply search for ‘Indicators’ by Skate.

Additionally, I recommend reaching out to @DrBourse, who has authored a comprehensive manual on this topic, complete with explanatory charts to facilitate better understanding. Technical indicators are essential tools for traders to analyse market trends and make informed decisions.

Skate.
 
@bossman! I’ve made over 300 posts in the 'Dump it here' thread discussing valuable indicators in my trading. To explore these posts, simply search for ‘Indicators’ by Skate.

Additionally, I recommend reaching out to @DrBourse, who has authored a comprehensive manual on this topic, complete with explanatory charts to facilitate better understanding. Technical indicators are essential tools for traders to analyse market trends and make informed decisions.

Skate.
@Skate and @bossman

I submit an alternative to the “Last 3 Entry/Exit Points of the Basic MACD Positions” as shown above..

The above MACD Entries were 30/1/24, 28/2/24 and 25/3/24….
The above MACD Exits were 14/2/24, 15/3/24 and 3/4/24….

By employing more appropriate Indicators, for example CCI & DMI – there was only One Entry on 19/1/24 (Blue Vertical Line with the BLUE Triangle) - & there was only one EXIT on 2/4/24 (Blue Vertical Line with the RED Triangle)….

Of course I have no idea how 2 Indicators could be incorporated into your "Investment Stratagies System"....

VDBA Cht 20240428.png
Reasons for my Entry & Exit points are explained within the (above) "Rules for DMI/ADXR Indicator"...

There are numerous other TA Examples in my "DrBourse TA Help for Beginners" Forum...
Other Examples are in the Forums "DrBourse General Help for Beginners" & "DrBourse FA Help for Beginners".
All 3 of those forums are in the "Beginners Lounge" here in the ASF...

Happy to answer any Questions...
Happy to email Free .pdf copies of Manuals (as mentioned by Skate), to anyone that feels they may be of help to them...
Anyone interested in the .pdf's would need to Private Message me....
Cheers...
DrB.
 
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End of Month Update

As at the end of April the portfolio is currently sat in the following position:

1714471047816.png

Current Weightings by classification:

1714471084708.png

Individual Asset Weightings:

1714471116979.png

I will be updating the returns of the portfolio every 2 - 3 weeks for those that are interested, as well as the weightings.

Portfolio Metrics:

Weighted Portfolio Beta:
0.719 (indexed against AXJO.INDX)
Portfolio Standard Deviation (weekly capital value): +/- 3.719%

Targets

In line with my plan there will be a big push in May to increase my holdings in the resource sector to ~10% really keen to get the portfolio to get the portfolio within the +/- 5% of target weighting by the end of June, the dividends from the ETF's will definitely assist with this.

Additionally trying to bring down my weighted standard deviation to ~3% that has largely been blown out by BetMakers however which is an extremely volatile asset.

If I had my time again I would of purchased all of the assets inline with my weighting targets (however I had not established my asset allocation plan fully at that stage... short sighted I know).

Onwards and upwards.
 
well i certainly wouldn't have picked BET , but i hope it keeps winning for you

now a a question .. is your weighting calculated by cash invested or by current market value ??

short-sighted enhances learning , you may not be able to go back , but you can adjust on the way ( as you learn )

( i made a few mistakes starting out as well )

good luck and stay flexible ( in your thinking )

cheers
 
Determined by current market value :

current_holding_value / total_pf_value
going to be tricky weighting by current market value , and the timing of rebalancing ( say every two or three months ) could be pivotal as well , you might have to adjust rebalancing dates after some experimentation , after all some of the ETFs do that automatically for you

good luck

PS careful with the resource sector , it is normally cyclical and this seems to be an unusual cycle
 
going to be tricky weighting by current market value , and the timing of rebalancing ( say every two or three months ) could be pivotal as well , you might have to adjust rebalancing dates after some experimentation , after all some of the ETFs do that automatically for you
I think I will do it consistently after the dividend qualification date each quarter. Will likely only rebalance every 4 - 5 months however once I hit my weighting targets I do believe they will remain within there target ranges.
 
Increase in Resource Sector Position:

1714521821584.png


Increase in holdings of resource sector, (additional cash invested to increase the weighting, as a part of my accumulation strategy).

Resource sector will hit a 15% portfolio weighting by the end of May.
 
Current Portfolio Returns

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Current Portfolio Weightings

1714878693451.png

Potential Asset Allocation Change


Pondering the idea of getting exposure to the Japanese market. Will be watching the news, the price of the Yen and macro releases over the coming weeks while I consider this plan. Target is still to reach within +/- of 5% for the core components of my portfolio (Diversified Growth, Property Sector, Resource Sector).

I am pondering the purchase of MNRS BetaShares (Global Gold Miners ETF - Currency Hedged). See it as important to reduce my resource exposure from purely Australia related assets.

Writing this for reference for my self - and to look back on. Will be back at the next time there is a large move in my portfolio/change in weighting.

Cheers
 
is Japan exposure better than South Korea exposure ?

now granted, there is some chance Korea will unify in the next 20 years ( goodness knows how that would play out )

although less of an economic power-house , i think that is somewhere you can explore options

( i am looking at India , Indonesia and Vietnam but i am looking at a shorter time frame )

good luck
 
Update

Strong day on the ASX, a cheaper AUD makes Australian export more and more attractive... not ideal if you want to travel though.

Iron Ore price is surging good for the resource holding. May has started off better then expected.

Asset Weightings
1715063724774.png

Profit/Loss
1715063709453.png
 
a cheaper AUD makes Australian export more and more attractive... not ideal if you want to travel though.
the other gotchya is, if your business costs are in US dollars ( say a big chunk of your borrowing/debt )

but yes some Aussie exporters gain nicely on a weaker Aussie dollar
 
End of Week
Profit & Loss
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Weighting
1715323748729.png

Still on track to reach my weighting target in the Resource Sector by the end of may. Thinking about picking up some funds that focus on gold mining. See gold continuing to rise. Still thinking about this play however. Return at 2.18% will be an interesting week next week as we see more economic data out of the USA. Especially the CPI data.
 
Update:


Returns

1715851921492.png

Weightings

1715851965201.png

Potential Purchase

Will be watching the market tomorrow, looking to add to the resource allocation to bring the weighting inline with the targets. Will still be shy of the target but will bring me substantially closer.

I have two possible plays.

MVR:

I am either looking to buy additional shares in MVR in the coming days, however my buy range is sat between $34 - $35, I think we will see a retrace in the coming days, additionally there appears to be a "death cross" occurring. I am by no means a TA expert but it is enough of a red flag for me to not buy at the current prices. I'm in no rush.

1715852433380.png

QRE

Alternatively I will look at purchasing QRE, I was initially concerned about the high allocation to BHP, however BHP's recent performance appears to have been priced in to the ETF.

It is also showing a MACD buy signal, so it may be an entry I enter tomorrow. I am however waiting to see if we see a retrace on todays gains.

1715852716438.png

Unrelated

On a side note, I have chosen to taper back my salary sacrifice in to my super account - I figure the opportunity cost of not having the money on hand is to great especially as I am actively investing (reduced from a salary sacrifice of 8% to 3%).

Additionally I will be watching Bloomberg tonight. Initial Jobless Claims will be another signal to see if the USA is truly tackling inflation.

Final note / prediction. Foreseeing a strengthening in the AUDUSD, this labor governments move with an energy subsidy is just hiding the problem, and moving numbers around, doesn't actually address the underlying issue (expensive energy!).

I don't see the RBA cutting interest rates in Australia until next year, and can definitely imagine there being a disparity in our rates in turn strengthening the AUD. (predicting Australia to be hawkish for longer in contrast to our peers). Not opening a FX position, just my thoughts.

As always writing this for my own record keeping, well done if you made it this far. If anyone has any thoughts on the positions I am considering to take please share! As always the above is based on my own research and is by no means financial advice (not that anyone would seek my financial advice!)

cheers

bossman
 
Buy order placed on QRE @ $7.65 with a stop loss at $7.00

Will be watching if MVR dives will cancel order and will try to get that filled. Whichever hits my price target first.
 
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