• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

A-REIT valuation model

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by Bushman, Jun 11, 2010.

  1. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 16 June 2017

    Another 4 day week for the All-Ords. The rest of the world is still going nuts politically but key issues appear to be: Donald Trump is being investigated as to whether the sacking of the head of the FBI was an attempt to interfere with the law; The British PM is still trying to put together a coalition to form government; Malcolm made fun of Donald at the winter ball but Donald can't remember who Malcolm is, and: The A-REIT Sector clawed back 4.29% for the week. This must be the run-up toward dividends. Good luck. :)

    xpj 2017-06-16.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 16 June 2017 follows:

    2017-06-16 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-06-16 b.jpg

    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  2. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 23 June 2017

    The week started well on Monday with further gains in the A-REIT Sector. However all of Mondays gains and those of week ending 16 June 2017 were blown away when Moody's revised downward their ratings of Australian Banks citing their exposure to the Australian property market. Then, to rub salt in the wound, Morgan Stanley announced that the Australian Share Market would drop by 10% in the near future. A bit of Dejavu here as Souros took a large bet against the Australian Economy a few years back and Goldman Sachs jumped on the band wagon selling down their Australian Investments (before telling their clients to do the same) and the rest of the world shorted our markets until they had made their profits. Australian markets have been a bit of a washing machine for some time as the rest of the world works out ways & means of stripping out the 10% of wages for compulsory superannuation that employers/employees put into the market each year. We must be due for another rinse cycle. Meanwhile yields are once again very attractive and most of the A-REIT Sector is still cum div. Good luck. :)

    xpj 2017-06-23.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 23 June 2017 follows:

    2017-06-23 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-06-23 b.jpg


    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  3. Logique

    Logique Investor

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    Thanks Nulla,
    hadn't heard that Morgan Stanley prediction of a share market 10% fall. When the banks are under attack the ASX struggles, that's for sure.
     
  4. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 30 June 2017

    There were some interesting factors impacting on the Australian Share Market this last week:

    President Donald;
    Ex Prime Minister Tony;
    Possible interest rate rises in Europe (going from negative to zero?) and further interest rate rises in the U.S.;
    A strengthening Australian Dollar;
    A glut of oil on international markets pushing down the price of oil;
    Most A-REIT's went ex-div on 29 June 2017; and
    The speculation of a collapse in Australian Residential Property prices continues to grab media headlines.

    A-REIT Sector share prices fell a further 4.9% to a six month low and may get lower. Meanwhile yields are even more attractive, price/earnings ratios are good and returns are way better than bank interest rates. Oh yeah, I forgot to add that fund managers did their usual trick in churning over stocks at the end of the quarter/fiscal year to generate fees and earn their bonuses. it will be interesting to see what gets snapped up as bargains in the next month. Good luck. :)

    xpj 2017-06-30.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 30 June 2017 follows:

    2017-06-30 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-06-30 b.jpg


    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  5. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 07 July 2017

    The week started well for the A-REIT Sector however all semblance of their being any sort of recovery was blown out the window with the sector finishing down a further 0.68% for the week. Long term bonds are selling at slightly higher yields than they have been on the premises that global economies are improving and inflation/interest rates will rise. I'm not sure that the Australian Reserve Bank agrees with this as once again interest rates were kept on hold. This week and last week has seen some shares trading below their net tangible asset value. This is hard to fathom as most A-REIT's are receiving management fees from jointly owned properties, not just the properties making up their NTA. Returns on Equity are high, distributions/yields are high and their levels of borrowing are low. Hard to call. Good luck. :)

    xpj 2017-07-07.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 07 July 2017 follows:

    2017-07-07 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-07-07 b.jpg

    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  6. Logique

    Logique Investor

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    Thanks Nulla,
    terrible week for A-REITS. In the background an international Bonds sell-off, but personally don't see the evidence of yield increase/interest rate rises, not in the US/Aus anyway. This market perhaps getting ahead of itself.

    End of Aus financial year gyrations a factor also.

    Just my feeling, but bargain hunting on value yields/distributions might come along soon for A-REITS.
     
  7. peter2

    peter2

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    I've been mystified by the sell off in the REITS also. It has happened across the board including SYD, MQA and TCL. I'd like to know the reason as I don't understand it.

    I'm sensing an opportunity here for a swing entry back up. I've started nibbling at TCL as it seems to provide the best RR.

    Others that were showing relative strength to the XAO back in June were;
    MQA, SYD, TCL,
    REITS - APB BWP CHC DXS GMG GPT SCP
     
  8. Quant

    Quant

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    TCL came up on my asx100 watchlist for bullish reversal earlier in week , triggering today
     
  9. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 14 July 2017

    The A-REIT Sector continues to dip although the rate of decent may have started to plateau. May have. The basis of the significant fall over the past 4-5 weeks continues to elude me. The economy is supposed to be strong, employment is supposed to be relatively high, new jobs are supposed to be opening up, business confidence is supposedly high, office rentals/occupancy is good, consumers are still buying, so every thing should be looking good for A-REIT's. However the spectre of a housing market retrace, constantly being pushed by the media and the same ratings agencies that talked up cdo's, seems to be having a bigger negative impact than warranted. Not just on A-REIT's but resources like Sydney Airport also. All my buy signals were hit long ago and yet the prices keep falling. Where to now, capitulation?

    xpj 2017-07-14.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 14 July 2017 follows:

    2017-07-14 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-07-14 b.jpg

    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
    Quant likes this.
  10. Logique

    Logique Investor

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    Nice bounce, off a low base, in the sector over the last week, and the $AUD surging to $79.40 USD would be helping to draw in some O/S investor funds.
     
  11. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 21 July 2017

    The Banks rallied this week on the back of the APRA release as to the quality of the deposits required to be held by our banks and the respective releases by the banks as to how they will have no problems meeting/exceeding these requirements within the required deadlines. The reserve bank released their monthly notes as to the state of the economy and interest rates, pretty much steady as it goes. However, the rally in bank shares was not enough to offset the falls in mining stocks (and telstra) with the All-Ords finishing down 37.5points (0.65%) for the week. While the A-REIT Sector gained 11.34 points (0.88%) it was hardly a flight to safety and makes the last two weeks gains look like a possible "dead cat" bounce more so than the start of a recovery. The Aud$ has climbed to US$0.79, speculation on a possible housing price collapse continues but may be easing and some sane heads have indicated that the imminent arrival of Amazon in Australia will take years and not days. Maybe some sanity will return to A-REIT share prices? Good luck.

    xpj 2017-07-21.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 21 July 2017 follows:

    2017-07-21 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-07-21 b.jpg

    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  12. peter2

    peter2

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    The announced $1.5 billion share buy back by VCX should add a bit of interest into this sector.
     
  13. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 28 July 2017

    The Trump effect went into reverse this week when President Donalds' proposal to cancel Obama-Care was defeated in a Republican controlled Senate. On the basis that President Donald can't get his way with the Senate on the removal of Obama-Care then he may not be able to get the proposed changes to the banking/financial system through also. While markets around the world re-acted negatively, the A-REIT Sector enjoyed a further lift. Some of this is likely "flight to safety" investors but it would seem that some of it is also a reflection of confidence in the Australian Commercial Property market, with significant purchases by Singapore based REIT's as well as consolidations by Dexus and Vicinity. Vicinity's announcement of a share buy back program also helped. Good luck. :)

    xpj 2017-07-28.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 28 July 2017 follows:

    2017-07-28 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-07-28 b.jpg


    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  14. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 04 August 2017

    The Trump effect on the US markets bounced back this week when President Donald appointed a former four star General as his Chief of Staff and sacked the recently appointed press secretary. The Dow Jones surged over 22,000. You'd think the U.S.A was on a war footing? Our markets continue to struggle along at sub 2007 levels like a banana republic, go figure. I guess the best thing about last week was that we didn't go backwards. :)

    xpj 2017-08-04.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 04 August 2017 follows:

    2017-08-04 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-08-04 b.jpg


    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
  15. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 11 August 2017

    Now we know why President Donald appointed a former four star General as his Chief of Staff and sacked the recently appointed press secretary. He is on a war footing, "Locked and loaded". And as the rhetoric heats up, like two children in the school yard trying to out bluff each other before one of them sums up enough courage (or stupidity) to throw the first punch, world markets fell as nervous investors pulled their funds out to build bomb shelters. Good Luck.

    xpj 2017-08-11.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 11 August 2017 follows:

    2017-08-11 a1.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-08-11 b.jpg


    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Aug 13, 2017
    Logique and Toyota Lexcen like this.
  16. crackajack

    crackajack

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    should be good for the us dollar lol
     
  17. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A-REIT Sector: Weekending Friday 18 August 2017

    The shake up of President Donald's team continues as he ejects the White Extremist staffer from his team and scales back the school yard rhetoric in regard North Korea. Markets are still jittery. Reporting season is well underway. Analists are have hissy fits dumping shares on the basis that results or future earnings are not up to expectation, even though those results and future expectations have already been indicated by the companies and share prices have already trickled down in response. A good opportunity for a short then a quick buy back.

    Although the All-Ords appears range bound, the A-REIT Sector has made further recoveries. At some stage the spectre of Amazon hanging over our retail sector is going to be put in perspective and the fear-mongering will evaporate. Until then, good Luck.

    xpj 2017-08-18.png

    The A-REIT Table for closing prices for Weekending Friday 18 August 2017 follows:

    2017-08-18 a.jpg

    The comparison table of this weeks closing prices versus last weeks closing prices follows:

    2017-08-18 b.jpg


    Comments:

    1. The shares listed in the tables above make up the XPJ A-REIT Property Sector.

    2. The "Capital" figures in the above tables are "market capital" based on the "issued shares" as distinct from "free float capital". The "issued shares", updated as at 17 March 2017, can change from day to day due to active share buy-back programs and other factors.

    3. The "Earnings", "Distribution" and "NTA" figures have also been updated as at 17 March 2017. "NTA" figures are subject to change every time there is a property re-valuation and the table may be out by a few cents from time to time, which effects the "Premium to NTA" also.

    4. Inclusion of any share details in the above tables is not an endorsement of that share as a viable investment or possible trade.

    Disclaimer: These tables may contain errors and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. As always, do your own research and good luck :) .
     
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