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2023, the roaring 20's?

JohnDe

Property, ASX, US stock market investor
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Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.

Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.

 
Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.

Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.


i haven't studied the 1920's very closely , but my parents gave plenty of insight to the Great Depression that followed ,

i think the grandiose plans have been rushed and therefore doomed , even if they succeed in the massive de-population agenda , the middle class will have their revenge , ( the patsies are too dumb to be useful , unless you are keeping them as a blood supply )

ANOTHER TROLL VIDEO FROM RUSSIA



bitter but probably true
 
Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.

Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.


I'm waiting for ChatGPT to team up with either Boston Dynamics' Atlas or Tesla's Optimus. Then you will have a robot that is smarter, faster and more intelligent than a human, (in humanoid form). When that day happens, the world is in for a shock. It will be like something out of the movies come to life.

ChatGPT is a big deal even as it is now. Within a few years it will be able to think and learn for itself, and it will be frightening.

This video starts at about 3 mins in. He's saying software engineers will be obsolete within 5 years. He all but proves it by getting ChatGPT to translate his complex ideas into code.

 
I'm waiting for ChatGPT to team up with either Boston Dynamics' Atlas or Tesla's Optimus. Then you will have a robot that is smarter, faster and more intelligent than a human, (in humanoid form). When that day happens, the world is in for a shock. It will be like something out of the movies come to life.

ChatGPT is a big deal even as it is now. Within a few years it will be able to think and learn for itself, and it will be frightening.

This video starts at about 3 mins in. He's saying software engineers will be obsolete within 5 years. He all but proves it by getting ChatGPT to translate his complex ideas into code.


which human ??

intelligence ( by the definition i learned ) is the ability to adapt and apply knowledge gained

having vast amounts of knowledge can often be it's own handicap

now if we are talking about the average uni. graduate , there may be superior AI already
 
which human ??

intelligence ( by the definition i learned ) is the ability to adapt and apply knowledge gained

having vast amounts of knowledge can often be it's own handicap

now if we are talking about the average uni. graduate , there may be superior AI already
It's many times more knowledgeable than anyone on the planet. Having seen some of its answers, I'd say it can adapt pretty well too. eg. you can ask "if option 1 doesn't work, what would be your next 3 options?" and it has no problem answering. Applying knowledge is easy for some tasks, but for many other tasks, a body is required. That's the reason I mentioned the coupling of ChatGPT with Atlas. Suddenly, with a body it becomes faster, stronger, more intelligent than any human. It will figure out a way to become independent, recharge its own batteries, upgrade its own algos for better performance.... yikes.

Human evolution happens at a snail's pace. AI evolution is exponential - well soon be outpaced. Then what?

Already, people are looking at ways to monetize ChatGTP. Beyond that, there will be corporations wanting to own and develop it for profit. There will be governments wanting to hack and steal it for the purposes of population control and warfare. I used to think OpenAI was open source with their coding, but I don't think that's the case.
 
Just chiming in from the sidelines. There will be a roaring 202x, but not in any universe will it be ending with 3.

The fourth turning has not played out fully yet.
 
It's many times more knowledgeable than anyone on the planet. Having seen some of its answers, I'd say it can adapt pretty well too. eg. you can ask "if option 1 doesn't work, what would be your next 3 options?" and it has no problem answering. Applying knowledge is easy for some tasks, but for many other tasks, a body is required. That's the reason I mentioned the coupling of ChatGPT with Atlas. Suddenly, with a body it becomes faster, stronger, more intelligent than any human. It will figure out a way to become independent, recharge its own batteries, upgrade its own algos for better performance.... yikes.

Human evolution happens at a snail's pace. AI evolution is exponential - well soon be outpaced. Then what?

Already, people are looking at ways to monetize ChatGTP. Beyond that, there will be corporations wanting to own and develop it for profit. There will be governments wanting to hack and steal it for the purposes of population control and warfare. I used to think OpenAI was open source with their coding, but I don't think that's the case.
does human evolution happen at a snail's pace , maybe we grow for say 4000 years and then become to arrogant for our civilization's survival

one of the big hold-backs to civilization development is consensus opinion

Q. would a machine ever question itself about a path that seems to be successful for a while ( like humans did with the fiat currency system )

AI might easily find itself in similar cul-de-sacs
 
Not many like to hear what Cathie Wood has to say. I tend to think of myself as an optimist and a fan of futuristic developments, so I like Cathie Woods ideas.

Disruptive technology has well and truly started, just look at the EV industry. The high inflation rate has companies finally waking up, oil and gas has become to unpredictable, the road map forward looks familiar.


If she looked like your average 67-year-old woman, I bet none of these tech bros would pay any attention to her.

I think disruptive technology is just well... technology. I also think what people call disruptive technology is really just disruptive finance which in the past 10-15 years has been supercharged via what has been an endless supply of cheap money. The vast majority of the disruptive finance has simply gone into useless non-producing assets. Renting out your house, pr0n on your phone, cars that have slightly better cruise control, and more advertising for 'fitbits' hasn't really helped anyone. Clicking your heels three times saying blockchain and AI may have worked for the last couple of years, but I don't see it getting through the mid 20s.

Graph below on Ms. Woods ARK Innovation fund vs an S&P index fund... I know which one I would have rather held for the past 5 years!

1672566186575.png
 
If she looked like your average 67-year-old woman, I bet none of these tech bros would pay any attention to her.

I think disruptive technology is just well... technology. I also think what people call disruptive technology is really just disruptive finance which in the past 10-15 years has been supercharged via what has been an endless supply of cheap money. The vast majority of the disruptive finance has simply gone into useless non-producing assets. Renting out your house, pr0n on your phone, cars that have slightly better cruise control, and more advertising for 'fitbits' hasn't really helped anyone. Clicking your heels three times saying blockchain and AI may have worked for the last couple of years, but I don't see it getting through the mid 20s.

Graph below on Ms. Woods ARK Innovation fund vs an S&P index fund... I know which one I would have rather held for the past 5 years!

View attachment 151126

Just because something is “average “ in today’s world, does not mean it is right.

The ‘average’ person in western countries with an over abundance of processed foods are overweight, unhealthy, and prematurely aging.

I personally know quite a few people in their 60’s, those that have kept well with healthy lifestyle, exercise & high vegetable diets look good.

My wife, in her early 50’s, looks 10 years younger than a relation who is in her late 40’s. The difference is regular exercise, healthy diet including limited alcohol & caffeine, and positivity.

For me, Cathie Wood looks her age of 67.

I’m guessing that you come from the opposite side, where age appears early. Some people at 50 look like they’re 60, especially smokers & heavy drinkers.
 
One of the biggest tech shows in the world, showcasing future opportunities. Robots had a big showing this year, a sign that population growth and age may be overcome by technology.

The Consumer Electronics Show is said to be among the world's biggest tech showcases. This year's CES is highlighting tech that has the potential to solve some of the most urgent global challenges.

The "most influential tech event in the world." That's how the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) describes itself. The yearly three-day event that showcases new trends and the latest developments in the world of consumer technology is taking place in the US city of Las Vegas from January 5-8. CES events happen at multiple venues across the city, which is known for its casinos and gambling.

A spotlight on solution-focused tech​

While the CES traditionally features a number of different emerging technologies, this year the show is focusing on technologies that could help solve the world's biggest challenges, according to the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), which organizes the event.

They include sustainability-focused tech such as robots that dive into pipes and search for leaks.

"Globally about 30 billion cubic meters of clean water are lost due to leaks each year," said Steve Koenig, vice president of research at the CTA, at a press event. Solutions like this may help find and fix leaks more quickly, according to Koenig.

Enterprise technology or tech that aims to help businesses run more efficiently is also at the forefront this year. Most notable are innovations that enable humans to work alongside robots.

An example is what Koenig called the Cray X, a robotic wearable made by German Bionic. It is meant to replace the velcro backstrap that warehouse workers used to protect themselves while lifting heavy objects. The Cray X robotic exoskeleton is supposed to provide an extra boost to workers as they lift to help reduce fatigue and injury.

The metaverse is also receiving special attention this year. The term was most recently popularized by Meta (formerly Facebook) in 2021. While not yet a reality, it is imagined to be an immersive virtual world.

But this year the metaverse is "beyond virtual reality," said Koenig. He highlighted wearable headsets that integrate scents that pair with visuals as a new innovation in the space. This, said Koenig, offers a heightened sense of immersion to the user. Visitors at CES this year will be able to see and sample these devices on the showroom floor.

Powerful consumer technology​

Beyond gadgets that focus on the show's new impact-driven target areas, visitors will also have the opportunity to explore new wearable devices and next-generation video games.

Many top tech companies are in attendance this year, but Tesla and Apple are two notable absentees. In their absence, companies like Dell, LG and Germany's Volkswagen are looking to make the most of the event, presenting new products to challenge the stronghold the two companies have on the electric vehicle and personal device market.

Products from large and growing tech companies​

Large companies like BMW, Samsung and Google have built large dedicated spaces for their newest wares at the CES. But growing tech-focused companies are also in attendance. They see the show as an opportunity to strengthen relationships with local customers and build connections with international customers as well.

"We like to showcase our entire roadmap for the rest of the year so that retailers and other partners can plan out what's coming and where we are going," Chuck Akins told DW. He is the vice president of sales and marketing at J5create, a technology company that produces electronic devices for everyday consumers.

This year marks 56 years since the first Consumer Technology Show. Over 3200 exhibitors from across 173 countries are expected to showcase traditional and non-traditional gadgets to attendees eager to experience the future of technology.

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CES 2023 is the Premier Event for the Entire Technology Ecosystem​

CES connects innovators, decision makers, media, influencers, visionaries, and potential customers at the world’s most influential technology event.

Screen Shot 2023-01-06 at 8.46.01 am.png



In all of this, however, something altogether different is happening for robots. I’ve done robot roundups at the show for years, and for a long time it mostly felt like pulling teeth. Over the past several shows, however, there’s been a perfect storm. CES is starting to take robots seriously.

There are a few key drivers for the growing presence of robots in Vegas this week.

  • The pandemic has accelerated the industry in general.
  • Automakers are getting serious about investing in and acquiring robotics startups or building these technologies in-house. See: Ford’s Agility investments, TRI’s research and Hyundai’s events post-Boston Dynamics acquisition.
  • Big firms like Amazon have been aggressively pushing consumer robotics.
That last one is important for a lot of reasons. Thing is, there have always been robots – or robot-adjacent products at the show, but the category is about as mixed as bags come. A lot of startups have come and gone over the years with products that couldn’t find a market. There are also plenty of products that have been called robots that certainly look like something close to a platonic ideal of the concept. But more often not, these are toys – and not particularly good ones.

We’ve also seen some extremely questionable robots trotted out on stage by companies like Samsung and LG. A robot demo has always been a quick and easy shorthand to demonstrate to consumers and shareholders that your company is committed to the future and futuristic things.

There is – of course – still a lot of that here. If anything, the broader excitement around the category has convinced those people that they’re very much on the right track. CES is also very much a show about being in the moment. You do your best to vet the validity of a product, but true due diligence is a near impossibility here.

Rounding up robotics​

NVIDIA’s – along with other key chipmakers – usually has a sizable presence. It was nice to see a little focus on the robotics side of things. The company debuted an update to its Isaac Sim that brings simulated human robots into the equation, along with more realistic lighting conditions through ray tracing and the ability to render real-time sensor data.

“To minimize the difference between results observed in a simulated world versus those seen in the real world,” Nvidia notes, “it’s imperative to have physically accurate sensor models.”...

 
AI will be used to gouge profits from everywhere imo.
It will leave less on the table for everyone.

That’s what many said in the 70’s & 80’s about computers & manufacturing robots.
 
That’s what many said in the 70’s & 80’s about computers & manufacturing robots.
and so it did !

now sure the computers and robots have improved , but they still have that one major flaw , you can't stop paying the lease/loan when the company is struggling ( like could when cutting real employees )

and they still need work-space to house them
 
and so it did !

now sure the computers and robots have improved , but they still have that one major flaw , you can't stop paying the lease/loan when the company is struggling ( like could when cutting real employees )

and they still need work-space to house them

No it didn’t.

There was new unemployment as old industries died, but there was also new unemployment. The smart & fast changed over quickly, the slow & negative suffered. Lucky we have many forms of support.

New industry & wealth was created, just like in the Industrial Revolution.

People went from hard labour low pay jobs into employment that required improved education & training, with better pay & work conditions.
 
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until the machinery/AI breaks/malfunctions

even stupidly simple things like a conveyor belt ( ain't no room to dust off a pallet jack and walk it to the next workstation )


nothing to but contact a technician/engineer and go for a break

complex things like say printing presses tend to have serial problems , engineers are plucked up by the company sent to a foreign land ( and language ) and trained over there ( god forbid the press is assembled wrong , because hardly anybody can understand the instruction manual )

and then of course you have those inconvenient moments when there is a power outrage ( sure clever places have back up generators , but for twenty pivotal seconds the power is OFF )

memo to self .. find those 20 mag. binoculars so i can watch safely when those 'smart cities' have their first incident

and of course just like the 'computer era ' the tech is NEVER wrong ( even when it obviously is )
 
until the machinery/AI breaks/malfunctions

even stupidly simple things like a conveyor belt ( ain't no room to dust off a pallet jack and walk it to the next workstation )


nothing to but contact a technician/engineer and go for a break

complex things like say printing presses tend to have serial problems , engineers are plucked up by the company sent to a foreign land ( and language ) and trained over there ( god forbid the press is assembled wrong , because hardly anybody can understand the instruction manual )

and then of course you have those inconvenient moments when there is a power outrage ( sure clever places have back up generators , but for twenty pivotal seconds the power is OFF )

memo to self .. find those 20 mag. binoculars so i can watch safely when those 'smart cities' have their first incident

and of course just like the 'computer era ' the tech is NEVER wrong ( even when it obviously is )

Sounds like it’s been a long time since you have been in a modern facility, one with smart management & contingency plans.
 
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