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2019 Predictions

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Smurf1976, Dec 31, 2018.

  1. Smurf1976


    Likes Received:
    Feb 14, 2005
    A thread for 2019 predictions which are either financial events themselves or are other major events reasonably expected to impact financial markets.

    The intent here is to focus on the "what is actually likely" aspect rather than saying it is wrong or right.

    My predictions, in no particular order:

    1. Brexit will not actually occur.

    2. The S&P500 will reach a major top during 2019. If this does not occur it will be because in hindsight the top has already occurred in 2018.

    3. The oil price will be volatile with moves of greater than 50%, in either direction, during the year.

    4. Donald Trump will not be President of the USA on 31 December 2019. Needless to say, a perceived crisis and extreme market volatility will surround this occurrence.

    Note they are my predictions of things happening, I'm not arguing for or against them.

    Feel free to post yours but the intent is things that impact markets.:)
    IFocus likes this.
  2. Sdajii

    Sdajii Sdaji

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    Oct 13, 2009
    1) I think you're effectively right, either because it just doesn't happen at all, or because they fudge some ridiculous deal to make it in name only.

    2) I think you're right about this one, although a major crash is likely before the end of the year, after the peak.

    3) I think the oil price is going to be extremely volatile - more than 100% in the first six months ($100 in the first half of the year). Again, likely followed by a crash before the end of 2019.

    4) I'd say Trump will still be president. If not, the **** will probably hit the fan (this is inevitable, but I expect and part of me hopes it will happen later.

    No doubt global tension and polarisation will continue to grow in 2019. The trend of often literally willful shunning of facts and evidence in favour of dogma and whatever is cool and popular will continue. The trend of astonishing insanity will continue (I can't even parody the insanity on social media any more, because there are so many people being so amazingly insane that any parody simply looks like genuine insanity). Science will become even more farcical, designed to follow/'prove' left wing narratives. The lefties will celebrate science 'proving' their insane narratives, the others will ignore it or quietly murmur about it being insane but no nothing more. The west's tenuous grasp on 'top of the world' status will continue to drift further away. The lefties, smug in their belief that they will always be in the top position of power will continue to increase their conscious denial of being in that position despite their content subconscious belief in it and thus act in ways to continue down the path of worsening their situation.

    Both sides will drift further from the facts, and anyone speaking facts will be even more hated for it than they already are.
  3. qldfrog


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    Jun 8, 2008
    The aud will trade at 60c usd during the year
    IFocus and wayneL like this.
  4. SirRumpole


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    Mar 26, 2014
    The Liberals will win the next Federal election.

    I'm usually very bad at predictions. :D
    qldfrog and IFocus like this.
  5. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

    Likes Received:
    Jul 9, 2004
    I'll have a crack

    Trump will still be Prez, but will continue to be obstructed and sabatoged by the Dems and the Fed (who will strategically keep raising)

    Shorten will romp in, negatively impacting our market

    Oil will be volatile

    The gold bugs may get their tail up... Not massive hikes, but an upward trend.

    #giletjaune movement will pick up momentum and tople either French or German incumbents, perhaps both.

    There will be a no deal Brexit

    The EU will face further dissent with more talk of other exits

    China will continue to laugh at the utter stupidity of the current situation of Western cultural suicide. (okay that one won't affect markets, but they will take advantage)
    Darc Knight likes this.
  6. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    Jul 9, 2004
    I predict you will come very close to this one
  7. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    Feb 28, 2015
    Trump still Prez but revelations aplenty about past criminal behaviour, but not enough people care.
    China continues its March to World domination.
    ScoMo establishes "middle ground", wins election.
    Aus bear market continues, economy slows further.
    Rumpy wins stock comp. Wayne joins Greens to impress Bas. Ann and Sdajii still arguing. SP sells mansion in Dalkeith moves to Vaucluse. DK still hasn't finished The Intelligent Investor.
    wayneL, IFocus and sptrawler like this.
  8. gartley


    Likes Received:
    Mar 31, 2015
    The following are points in time only and disregard cycle point no's relative to y axis

    EURUSD to make a historic low in first quarter 2019

    AUDUSD to bottom in first quarter 2019 and then be in uptrend for rest of year

    Gold to put in an intermediate term top and after a pullback will continue bullishly for remainder of year and into 2020
    SPX500 continue bearishly after current rally finished and find an intermediate cycle low between Jan and April

    All Ords the same as SPX
  9. basilio


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    Jun 30, 2008
    Predictions for 2019
    1) Financial stresses around world markets will become dangerously extreme. Debt levels and refinancing will become problematical. There is a high risk of some countries experiencing financial collapse with insufficient world bank capacity to bail them out.

    2) Insurance and re insurance companies will be reassessing risks on whole new areas of the world as the accelerating effects of climate change caused weather bites harder. Fire risks, flood and storm damage will result in extreme premium increases or refusal to cover certain areas or certain events.

    3) The risk of global trade wars continues to rise.

    4) World political systems continue to tip towards authoritarian right wing regimes. France and Germany are under pressure in a world that has an authoritarian US government, Russia, China, Italy, Hungary. Poland Turkey Brazil. The impact of issues 1-3 on this drift will be very challenging.

    5) The pressure on Donald Trump will continue to rise. There is a substantial risk he will start some foreign adventure to distract people from the situation. In that context he could also declare a state of National Emergency and attempt to shut down current democratic political processes.
  10. Logique

    Logique Investor

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    Apr 18, 2007
    -Markets to bottom out in May, then advance for the remainder of the year
    -Logique will win the XAO tipping comp - being thus far the only entrant
    -Trump will remain in office
    -Shorten will become PM
    -Gold price will increase
    -'No Deal' hard Brexit
  11. IFocus

    IFocus You are arguing with a Galah

    Likes Received:
    Sep 8, 2006
    If the US fed keeps tightening balance sheet along with a couple more rate rises with the turmoil of Trump in power then US recession is a given.

    The Mueller investigation will confirm collusion and criminal behaviour of Trump and family members but he will remain president......such is US politics.

    AUD closer to 60 than 70 cents

    ASX to break below 4800 some time during the year

    Housing market prices to remain soft.

    Threat of war as China slides into recession and trade war intensifiers.

    On the up side Ifocus sells house for a motza and down sizes.......... :):)

    Hope I am wrong on the dooms day predictions and we all have a happy,healthy and prosperous New Year everyone :D
    Skate, Logique and Darc Knight like this.
  12. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    Aug 8, 2006
    You're good with that call and Smurfs call is a safe bet too. :xyxthumbs

    Skate likes this.
  13. jbocker


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    May 24, 2009
    Eagles play in premiership again.
    Gaf wins Brownlow.
    Labor wins election.
    1 Interest rate fall in Aus.
    AMP wont recover risk of collapse
    Banks stay at current prices or less thereabouts.
    No real excitement in markets
    Qld NSW Vic NT housing markets -ve. WA SA and Tas +ve
    Oil volatile but finish around $70
    I will be 10kg lighter
    I will be (very) wrong in nearly all of above.
    IFocus likes this.

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