So in this morning's post I referred to the prevailing bullishness re. the first 6 months and the continuation of the push higher. Some contra-history:
So given that AAPL is a mega-cap and will help move an index almost by itself, yes, this is important.
A new month.
Lets start with new issuance, buybacks & dividends:
Fairly self-explanatory. Lots of issuance (usually as Options exercise for CEO's) and then the Company buys it all back. Dividends are also going up. How is this possible? Issuance of debt. Corporate debt is so cheap it...
Last post of June:
Demand for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel is on the rise in the U.S. as mobility increases.
- For the week ending June 18, the four-week average demand for gasoline was 94% of the four-week average for the same week in 2019, distillate was 98%, and jet fuel...
So blogoland remains bullish on balance. Now the divergences:
Breadth remains weak and is simply not recovering as the index continues to hit new highs. Generally speaking, you need about 60% of stocks to safely drive indices higher. The current 52% is dangerous. Now of course capitalisation...
Approaching the end of June. We have some seasonality data.
As is Tech. generally. Growth back in vogue as interest rates are going to stay very negative or just negative.
We are (later chart) seeing a move from Junk to Treasuries, which is a...
So Risk On Factors at 52%:
Which is a coin toss. So markets remain pretty directionless, meh and risky if something unexpected happens.
And it's what you don't see, just around the corner that jumps out and crushes your position.
Well commodities, yes definitely. NG is a...
With June coming to a close another meh day.
As I scrolled through the news feeds what becomes quite apparent is that there is no central theme, meme or otherwise. Just really random stuff all mixed in together. This is being reflected in the quickfire trading through the...
I think the way it is read is: of the top 1000 companies, only 4% of their combined market cap could be considered as a bubble. Whereas in 2000, many, many small companies, most without earnings of any description had impressive market caps.
For daytrading US stocks, stocks that moved on earnings releases:
Current state of the market:
Keeping an eye on new and expanding lows:
So the data suggests that all declines remain BTD. To date, it has worked well. Each time however, the risk just grows that little bit...
Sunday morning coffee. As usual, I have many more charts than space allows in a single post.
Bubble data, Ray Dalio and Bridgewater:
Looking at consumers debt:
US Debt broad:
Cost of debt:
Three major risks immediately stand out:
(i) Interest rates CANNOT RISE...
So let's take a look at various markets from a different perspective.
In no particular order:
SPY a long way above its 200.
BTC (now that was a bubble)
Where would you feel 'safe'?
Combine DXY and USO as an analysis with...