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XAO Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by kennas, Oct 27, 2006.

  1. mmmmining

    mmmmining Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    People just cannot wait for the long weekend, sell, sell...
    I guess next week will be a tough one when all professionals are back to work. A round of profit taking is on the corner...
    But for mining companies, the stake is high because the quarterly report is due...
     
  2. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    the earlier count showed the last month, here is the last 12 months. Wave 3 = 1.618 x 1, so good possibility of some resistance around these levels (note this is based on ASX200 not XAO)
     

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  3. Nick Radge

    Nick Radge Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Your wave-v is also the higher degree wave-3, so the current move higher must be a wave-5
     
  4. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    sounds fair - so v = 3, we've had 4 and now in 5, which looks to be extending. the chart is based on 24 hr data tho so there'll be some differences from XAO I'd suspect.
     
  5. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    10 day view - looks to be running out of steam, lots of divergence showing now

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    hi Kennas - had a crack at a weekly count on ASX200 - the fibs all seem to work out OK. if 5 = 1 we could push up to 6,100-ish

    [​IMG]
     
  7. wavepicker

    wavepicker Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Edwood,

    Might be better and more valid performing a count on actual EOD data rather than CFD bid data from reuters. It can make a difference.
     
  8. feng77

    feng77 New Member

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  9. >Apocalypto<

    >Apocalypto< 20.03.2012

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    From the chart u posted on the weekly Aussie200.

    Looking at the bottom indicator it has hit the top line so some kind of pull back could be expected going on past ;) what do u think?

    I am also turning bearish as it pulled so far of it trend lines I feel a 200+ pull back is on the cards.
     

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  10. >Apocalypto<

    >Apocalypto< 20.03.2012

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    today a hell of alot of puts where bought on the XJO

    Calls Traded: 2238 Puts Traded: 8217 now does this mean much?

    that's the frist time i have seen it lean that much to one side in a long time when we are at a top.

    some over zealous bears maybe or something more?
     
  11. dodgers

    dodgers Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Found this T/A view from a major broking house today. Just wondering if others share their view that we're close to the top of wave 3 for this bull run with a corrective wave 4 imminent before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave...??

    Given the continued uptrend over recent weeks it is likely that wave 3 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low is still unfolding. Structurally the third wave appears to be close to complete and is approaching important wave relationship resistance at 5905 where wave 3 equals 2.618 the length of wave 1. This is a likely place for a fourth wave correction to occur from. Weakness through support at 5760 needs to occur to provide an initial indication that the market has begun a fourth wave retreat, with downside risk then to the 5285 to 5489 region (fourth wave of lesser degree range) before uptrend resumption for a final fifth wave.

    What are your thoughts?
     
  12. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    hi Trade It, been away for a week - good to see ASX still up here! also think we are heading for a correction, agree the RSI is moving into overbought territory but in the past its run up for some time while more o/bought
     
  13. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    have seen a very similar count on XAO in the last few days Dodgers from a UK-based house, definitely sounds feasible imo
     
  14. dodgers

    dodgers Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Thanks Edwood

    Being a non-chartist, I can't figure out where the wave 1 peak might have been. Any ideas?

    cheers
    dodgers
     
  15. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    hi Dodgers, using XAO on bigcharts (which may not be completely correct) it looks to be around 5,100, give or take a few
     
  16. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    don't know if you've noticed Dodgers but XAO has just now bounced back from 5,905 - can it take it out now I guess is the question
     
  17. dodgers

    dodgers Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Thanks Edwood, I'm guessing it can crack 6000 before correcting but thats exactly what it is....a guess
     
  18. Edwood

    Edwood Well-Known Member

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    could be institutions hedging their long positions Trade-It as we approach a 'key' level, or they're betting on a fall. either way their covered. imo high amounts of open interest can act as a support and resistance - so lots of short interest can help to drive the market higher as they're forced to cover as the market moves higher
     
  19. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Is this looking toppy and ready for a bit of a breather? :eek7:

    Top of a wave 5 perhaps?

    If we get a 10% correction this would bring it back to the 5400 level, where there is some support also.

    Looking for some good shorts here, or perhaps the spi.
     

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  20. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Is the China syndrome going to can the US like it has UK? And then us? Could this be the start of the inevitable correction that we have to have? 1st stop could be 5700, then around 5450 ish. That's about a 50% retractment from the latest 5 wave push. Or, am I being too bearish?

    Shorting the spi looks like it could be a cunning plan, shortly.
     

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