• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Potential Breakout Alerts!

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by kennas, Dec 19, 2006.

  1. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Well, it's been suggested a few times under various headings, but I thought I'd start this to see where it goes.

    All those people who have been watching a stock and can see that it might be about to breakout now have a place to put it. Of course, this can not just be an opportunity to ramp your stock, and I suggest there must be some logic and analysis behind your pick. A chart would almost seem essential.

    Obviously, punters who place a stock on this thread, only to find their stock gets smashed and never actually breaks out is going to come under scrutiny. So, be prepared to be analysed yourself!

    I don't actually have a stock to kick it off, but will do some searching and get back to you.
     
  2. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    I will observe this thread for a few days to a week and if it simply becomes a vehicle for people to ramp up stocks they hold it will be removed and the experiment never repeated.

    As kennas said, a detailed analysis, complete with a chart, must be presented or your post will be removed. Posts of one or two sentences just wont cut it.

    I give this thread a week tops... but I would like to be proven wrong. Lets see.
     
  3. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    I'll try and keep track of it Joe and grill punters on their analysis if required to keep it real. If used properly this has great potential. As I said, some people's credibility will be on the line if they just throw up a code.

    Not saying I'm any expert on this either, just want to keep the forum honest. :)
     
  4. Kipp

    Kipp Lord of the Ledgers

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Yeah. POTENTIAL is in many ways more useful than CONFIRMED. When you see a chart of a stock that has already rocketed 35% all you think is "if only..."
    Nice thread K
     
  5. Buster

    Buster Well-Known Member

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Hey Kennas,

    Great idea. I noticed a few posters got lashed for doing this in the 'outstanding alert' thread, so probably apt to start another..

    I'm not a analyst by any strech of the imagination, so please go a little easy.. :D

    I'm assuming here that we can call a 'short' breakout, so I'll tip IAG at the minute as shareholders have just been offered up to approx 1000 shares at $5.50 after a fairly big insto take up somewhere between $5.10 - 5.50. As the SP is sitting around the $6.10 - 6.20 mark I'm expecting many to sell shares (at least a thousand of them) at these prices and pick them back up at the placement price. This seemed to take place in the T3 placement so I'm simply assuming something similar will occur.

    Then again I've been wrong more times than right, and, despite reading a few of the more basic books, the logic of the market just stuns me sometimes..

    Would appreciate others opinions..

    Cheers,

    Buster
     
  6. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Further to my previous remarks... if your post suddenly disappears from this thread please do not repost it, as it was removed for a reason (i.e. it didn't cut the mustard!)
     
  7. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    I suppose for a start, a decent definition of a breakout is required. One from Stockcharts:

    Breakout: Price of a security emerging from a previous trading pattern. The new price "breaks out" above the high (or below the low) trading pattern lines that enclose all other prices for that security in the preceding period. Breakouts are used by technical analysts to predict substantial upside or downside movement.

    Picking when something is about to breakout is obviously pretty difficult as a stock can sit around a breakout point for some time and then, on a announcement, explode, and it's all over. So, maybe we need to be picking points at which a stock would be declared a breakout also. A usual sign that something is about to break up is increased volume at a time when a stock is trading very close to the edge of a trading range. Something to watch, and should be indicated. This would give a 'potential' breakout candidate more credibility.

    I tend to watch trading ranges and patterns to look for when something might be classified as a breakout, and have posted those comments frequently. Will start doing that here too.

    Would be good to hear what other people look for in a potential breakout.
     
  8. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    So, are you saying the sp will go back to the $5.10-$5.50 mark?
     
  9. Porper

    Porper Ralph Nelson Elliott

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Ok, I'll kick us off.

    This could be in the breakout thread really, but as it hasn't surpassed all time highs it should qualify as a potential breakout.

    I've watched TCI for a while now as it has very low volume but can be traded with CFD'S, so it must be a top 300 company.

    I don't hold because the wave count suggests another leg down before rising strongly.

    The perfect type of stock if we could set a guaranteed stop loss, otherwise too risky for me.
     

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  10. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Funny, even if you are, there is a potential breakout there if you ignore the SPP thingy.

    The blue circles indicate where I see the potential breakout. Could have been one just below the $6.00 mark as well, where there was a resistance point and there was massive volume. I don't think this could have been forecast though.

    So, perhaps potential breakout through $6.25.....Looks like it's had a pretty hard run, so maybe your $5.50 is more likely.....interesting.
     

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  11. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Yes, has broken out perhaps, maybe at $1.40, but can also make another break through $1.50 perhaps. Had a few very good days. Can it be sustained?
     

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  12. Porper

    Porper Ralph Nelson Elliott

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    I would say it broke out today as it broke the recent high, which goes back to March, although you are correct, it hasn't closed above 1.50 yet.

    The wave count is good and if all goes to plan this could easily get to new all time highs of 1.75 fairly quickly as there doesn't seem to be many shares around to buy.

    I will be watching and if we get the slight retrace then a move up on good volume I will be in.
     
  13. Buster

    Buster Well-Known Member

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Ahhh.. Yes.. It seems I forgot to mention the important part.. :D I'm thinking it will dip to the 5.80 - 5.60 mark as they sell out to take advantage of the placement offer..

    Never said I was smart.. :D

    Seems that I have not a clue what a breakout is either, after reviewing Porpers post and the replies.. Sorry, will watch some more before jumping in.. :eek:

    Cheers,

    Buster
     
  14. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Just removed a post that didn't quite meet the required standards.

    I'm not quite sure people are understanding the level of analysis posting in this thread requires. One or two sentences about about how a stock is looking good and should perform well in the near term just won't cut it. Please include a chart and back up your point of view with some detailed technical analysis.

    If you can't, then please avoid posting in this thread as your post will more than likely be removed.
     
  15. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Buster, I posted this first chart on Telstra on 14 December at a point where I thought it was a 'potential' breakout. Others may claim it's a breakout, but we all have different opinions. :) The second chart is from this morning to see where it's gone.

    I also posted a chart on 9 Dec identifying this about to occur that you might be interested in. If you look at those charts and compare to today you see where the ‘potential’ is derived from and should give you an idea of some of the things to look for.

    The overall pattern is a large rounded bottom, (possibly forming a cup) starting from about Jul 05. This pattern would sometimes indicate that the stock is going to gently climb up the other side of the cup. Bullish.

    There seems to be a definite bottom to have been found.

    The stock was going down since Jul 05 as can be seen by the lower highs all the way down indicated by the sloping red line. Once the stock broke out of this downward trend and started making higher lows, then this is a sign it is going to or has broke up, or broken out.

    MACD was gently climbing up, and was just about to cross the signal line on 9-14 Dec. Bullish.

    The reason why I didn't think this had officially broken out on 14 Dec is that there is significant resistance at $4.00 which has been a sticking point for the past few months. Until it overcame this point, it would not be a breakout to me. SOme T/As claim that a breakout needs to hold for 3 days for it to be a 'breakout'.

    On the day I posted this it had only JUST held over $4.00. Hardly a OUTSTANDING Breakout. Once it held above this level, then I would have called it a breakout.

    Hope this helps a bit.

    Note:

    TA is only ever probabilities. This pattern could break down at any time at which point you need to re evaluate the position. Sh!t happens.

    I'm definitely no expert on this. Just been picking things up over the past few years. I have no formal education in technical analysis. Happy to be corrected by any more experienced people.

    PS, this will definitely fail now that I have posted this up. LOL :D
     

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  16. SevenFX

    SevenFX Formerly known as 'Tekmann'

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Hi Joe,

    Rather than removing them ertirely, leaving no trace for other Newcomers to learn from, may I suggest removing the content, and replace it with something like

    "Post Content Removed, Not Substaniated By Indications on Chart or Detailed Technical Analysis"

    Maybe this could be a rubber stamp somewhere for mods to cut n paste....and newcomers could get the mininum requirement quicker.

    This could also apply to the "Outstanding Breakouts" thread to keep that tidy 2.

    The only downside is not as many will take the time to insert a chart, but the one(s) that do will be Quality Posts, and hopefully others will follow.

    Cheers
    SevenFX
     
  17. roxy

    roxy Member

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Sorry, i'll have another go at this. I honestly wasn't trying to ramp esg. I'll be the first to admit i don't have the same high ta knowledge as someone like kennas but i'm not a ramper. Esg are in a steady uptrend, have been consolidating for the past few days and to me looks like it could break out of a symmetrical triangle. I've attached a chart for those interested (well tried too but it was too large). Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thankyou :)
     
  18. SevenFX

    SevenFX Formerly known as 'Tekmann'

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts


    Hi & Welcome to ASF Roxy,

    I agree it's knowledge and experience that gives you confidence to post charts examples of a potential breakout, and that comes with time reading and asking questions on ASF.

    Depending on what application your charting with will depend on how to reduce the chart size.

    You could PM me, or enter the chat part of asf (top right) and I could try to help... let me know if you need some help.... so we keep this thread on track.

    Cheers
    SevenFX
     
  19. roxy

    roxy Member

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Ok i've tried to attach a chart of esg so hope it works ok. Looks to be forming an ascending triangle, any thoughts would be very much appreciated. Thanks :)
     

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  20. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator

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    Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Hi SevenFX

    I will leave posts in the thread as long as there is a real attempt at some kind of analysis. Otherwise I think it is best to remove them.

    I have suspected from the outset that this thread would end up become a haven for ramping and I'm still not convinced that it wont. So to get things going on the right foot, I think its important to encourage a certain level of content to set some kind of standard.

    I am happy for this thread to stay if it proves useful but what I think its important for everyone to understand is that in order for their post to be useful to others they have to try and explain why they think the stock is going to break out. So to achieve that there is going to have to be a certain amount of technical analysis involved. Perhaps those who aren't familiar with t/a should watch from the sidelines until they feel comfortable enough to attempt their own analysis?
     
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