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Long Term Stock Ideas

Discussion in 'Medium/Long Term Investing' started by craft, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    I'm on the hunt for some more candidates to research for a looong term portfolio.

    Anybody want to share some prospects they like? Price doesn't have to be right at the moment - I can wait for that to occur, but the quality of the management and business economics needs to be already obvious to warrant doing more research.
     
  2. ThirtysixD

    ThirtysixD Well-Known Member

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    AJA

    Normally I would not go near property but its trading at a 30-50% discount to NTA. You get a nice currency hedge and the Olympics should support the property market.
     
  3. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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    Hey craft, any market cap or liquidity preferences?
     
  4. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    Hi 36D

    Thanks for the suggestion.

    I’m sure the attributes you mention will make it a good candidate for some However I have dismissed it at first pass (the stage I make my greatest mistakes of omission) as a very long term candidate. Doesn’t have the earnings stability I desire and I don’t particularly know much about Japanese Property to be the smartest guy in the room on that front.

    But like I say I make the biggest mistakes in my first pass – so if you want to elaborate some more – please do. It’s normally when something or somebody inspires me to take a second look that the rough diamonds are found.
     
  5. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    No.
     
  6. McLovin

    McLovin Well-Known Member

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    Well I'd say CAT, but I'm sure you're after companies that are already profitable.:)
     
  7. Ves

    Ves Beyond Good and Evil

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    CAT is basically already profitable, they're just footing their growth requirements through the P & L.

    How profitable it will be in 10 years and whether the market cap justifies such a thing, well that's where I'm currently stuck. :)
     
  8. craft

    craft Can't re Member

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    Reasonably clear pathway to profitable with very little (preferably no) further requirements for external capital to stay alive (external capital for additional growth is O.K)

    CAT seems to fit the bill and I have started looking but haven't got far on it yet.
     
  9. skc

    skc Well-Known Member

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    APX, ELX, PPS, LAA, PGC, PRO.

    Don't have time to run through each name now...but perhaps posting in their respective threads will generate more discussion.
     
  10. Ves

    Ves Beyond Good and Evil

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    NAN

    Recurring revenue
    Bugger all (visible) competition
    Almost self-funded
    Global market
    Disruptive technology
    Medical hygiene device & also sells the consumables and does the maintenance
    Fairly sure there are reams of clinical studies endorsing its effectiveness compared to alternatives

    Fairly sure they raised a big chunk of capital to help them grow earlier in the year and there was around $45m left.

    I had a spread sheet model for this done up 18 months ago and worked out a lot of the cost structure (most likely out of date I'd say) when it was trading at about 60-70 cents. Never did pull the trigger. :frown:
     
  11. Muschu

    Muschu Well-Known Member

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    Unless I've got this wrong.... Every one of the above stocks went up today [along with AJA and NAN] in a down market....

    ??
     
  12. shouldaindex

    shouldaindex Well-Known Member

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    I'm also interested in this topic, I think I've been screening every week with different ideas for 2 years!

    More into the proven history sort of stocks. I've been keen on ANZ, WOW and TLS once their rebasing occurs at the cycle bottom.

    ANZ will hit a bad debt peak at some stage (similar to 74, 82, 91, 08 - every decade has had a crisis that sees it go through the roof)
    WOW is rebasing their margins to achieve sustainable growth (-30% Margin / Profit for H1, but it's a 3 year strategy that could go lower)
    TLS is low growth, high yield so is more tied into a cyclical valuation drop via a macro downturn, but a company specific opporunity is possible like 2011 too (competitive threads led to reducing margins by about 10%).

    I've also been wanting to get onto the Health and Agriculture macros but haven't found a specific company with the right characteristics in terms of quality and price, so open to any suggestions.

    I've looked at the IPOs- MGC had me interested, but decided against it due to dairy price volatility and some animal welfare concerns. SunRice is coming up next year, but it's exposed to weather. Health IPOs seem to be expensively priced due to the perceived macro.

    If nothing presents, I'm happy to wait for the next 20-30% market drawdown and gradually buy a bit of everything.
     
  13. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    At the Micro end of the scale.

    • HZR - Hazer, has blue sky technology commercialising Iron + NG to Graphite & Hydrogen.
    • CTT - Food Revolution, Health drinks targeting the Chinese market.
    • NRR - Alcidion Corporation, Patient/hospital management software.

    All 3 just starting their journeys, CTT & NRR have cash flow, all 3 zero debt and some potential, i hold.
     
  14. galumay

    galumay learner

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    Lots of interesting suggestions coming up, quite a few that had escaped my radar!
     
  15. silence

    silence Toot Toot!

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    BAL

    Yes it's gone up 1300% already since float, but try to find a reason that selling baby formula to rich chinese won't continue to work out.

    The only issues are getting supply to make enough of their product. Management seems strong, and it's an easy one to chart. It just.... goes up.
    Down days are never that bad, and up days are amazing.


    I hold, traded in and out since about $6. Not selling again until my shares are worth an apartment deposit or an outright Tesla purchase ;)


    If it isn't $20 by the end of next year, I'll be very surprised. Look at Blackmores which is mostly pseudoscience products that don't benefit the people who buy them at all.
     
  16. howmanyru

    howmanyru Well-Known Member

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    I hold and trade DUB. Boring stock, just call recording in the cloud, but I like boring as it keeps the punters away.
     
  17. Klogg

    Klogg Well-Known Member

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    Pro-Medicus (PME)

    Business itself is impressive - not so sure about the price.
     
  18. sasch

    sasch Member

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    Adslot (ADJ)

    Global digital publishing platform for advertising. Just about to become profitable based on trend of sales. But not anticipated to become profitable ~2017 due to ongoing expansion of the business throughout various countries.

    Risks - other than the obvious one of running out of money - being beaten in this space by another competitor;
    or if successful, being bought out before the upside is fully realised.

    One to take a punt on.



    Disclosure - holding via FAC purchase.
     
  19. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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    As always; no story - just running numbers.

    Caveat: Completely ignoring price. I'm going for 'quality' here. I base that on your comment that the price does not have to be right. Therefore I wouldn't (necessarily) be investing in these, as of course just like yourself - the price has to be right (amongst other things)

    Anyway...on quality alone:

    Vita Group
    Navitas
    Cochlear
    JB Hi-Fi
    Blackmores


    Saunders International
    Nick Scali
    Oz Forex
    DWS
    AMA Group
     
  20. Muschu

    Muschu Well-Known Member

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    I like your top group apart from NVT which I consider has seen the best of its days. Other comments on that thread.
     
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