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End of the China bull?

Discussion in 'International Markets' started by Uncle Festivus, Feb 1, 2008.

  1. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus Well-Known Member

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    There appears to be emerging signs that China has not de-coupled from the rest of the worlds problems. Internal rampant inflation and pressure on food supplies from a cold snap may temper the rate of growth, with local implications/ramifications for Australia?

    Food commodities the next/current global bull market perhaps?

    A serious threat to Chinese food supplies with recent severe cold & snow storms.
    China's products to be less competitive?

    And the share market fails the re-test?
     

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  2. tradingforwealth

    tradingforwealth Member

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    I thought we are mainly affected by commodities and from China buying them from us, they got heaps of cash reserves and they haven't finished building their cities.

    The chinese government didn't want BHP and RIO to merge as they could have more power.

    Anyway, BHP has in most of their announcements that they expect this commodity boom to last for 10-20years more.
     
  3. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus Well-Known Member

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    The Chinese trifecta -

    1 - currency appreciating,
    2 - global demands slowing down, and
    3 - production costs increasing

    and.....inflation.

     
  4. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    Hi there, so where is the "heaps of cash" coming from and what do you think China will be exporting after the "expansion" has subdued?
    Do you think one day we will hear from China ... sorry folks, we`re out of yen.
     
  5. roland

    roland Well-Known Member

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    It's been a while since I was in China - around 6 years or so. I have been there 4 times, each time a year or 2 apart. Each time the changes were dramatic - just amazing at how quickly a city of apartments can be erected, seemingly using nothing but bamboo scafolding and manpower.

    The extreme poverty in many country areas in contrast with the extreme cash wealth of China is an obvious sign to me that China still has a long way to run.

    They make just about everything in the world, and the world continually empowers their factories to continually pump out manufactured goods from other's natural resources.

    Nothing is going to stop China, they are not even a small percentage ahead in thier growth expectations. If someone has something they can dig up and send to China to buy back at value added prices, then it is all smooth sailing for their growth. The US is dead - look out for the new China!
     
  6. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    You are assuming the rest of the world want to buy the stuff.I reckon quality will sell more than quantity.But i suppose the poorer in their country will soak up the surplus products.
     
  7. roland

    roland Well-Known Member

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    Wysiwyg, I guess you are not in the frontline of the retail trade...? We continually try and promote "quality" products, but are continually frustrated with the majority of people buying on price.

    ....and, guess what, the higher cost "quality" products are generally also made in China
     
  8. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    Yes roland, you are right, i don`t sell things.What products of quality do you mean please?
     
  9. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    Yes big call, Im always buying made in China sometimes by choice and sometimes because of no choice, price AND quality seal the deal.

    US products are getting cheaper, I would and will never buy food from China but have absolutely no problem buying US food. My new Lawnmower is made in the US. If I could choose made in US over made in China for comparable prices I would choose US and im sure more than 50pc of Australians would agree. I also have no problem paying double for items that last twice as long regardless of point of manufactor.

    China is going to come up against more competition. She needs to do work on Quality rather than quantity imho.

    The US has alot of fight left in her, new direction will hopefully be found under new leadership.

    Such comments about the US have me wondering if its nearly time to invest their, not quite im thinking, bit more to fall yet :D
     
  10. Freeballinginawetsuit

    Freeballinginawetsuit Well-Known Member

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    What rock do you live under? :D.

    Plz name something that isnt, and just to be picky it cant have a component/textile/plastic yada yada in its manufacture..... chinese sourced.
     
  11. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    I got a pair a strides made in China, but most of my electronic stuff and car is made in Australia, Japan, Korea.Bring on the Chinese car manufacturers say what.:p:

    .
     
  12. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    Plus it might be hard for China to lose that "low quality" tag...1997 ...


    2008 ....

     
  13. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Everything is made in china now...even good stuff, but mostly theres just no choice...LCD monitors is a good example..all made in China.

    What US food?..Woolworth's has been selling frozen Chinese veggies for a while now...home brand and others...carrots, broccoli etc etc, most people have no idea....they don't read the contents labels, even Nabisco, Ritz biscuits are made in China.
     
  14. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    The car I drive isnt, the road I drive on isnt, the food on my table isnt, the fuel I use isnt, the plane I fly on isnt, the power I use isnt, the house I live in isnt etc etc, I know Chinese commerce is huge but it isnt about to take over the financial world.

    I hope China continues to do well, she will be up against tough competition in the future im certain. A huge aging population is just one thing, Internal price pressures another, India will provide big competition. Falling value of the USD is more competition.

    Competition is great!

    Finally, I love Chinese food, but ill never trust made in China food, I wish them good luck changing my and many others minds on that :D Id pay 100pc more for Aussie made, Id grow my own if there was no alternative! Each to their own though :D
     
  15. Lucky_Country

    Lucky_Country Formerly known as ijh

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    Just the start of the China bull.
    Internal demad is the biggest growth story not exports.
    Oh and dont forget India
     
  16. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    All true and backs up my original comment...."everything is made in china" however its only economical to export almost everything here....wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese were able to export pre cast road sections one day.:rolleyes: Honda makes cars there.

    Everyone underestimates the domestic demand in china.
     
  17. >Apocalypto<

    >Apocalypto< 20.03.2012

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    I have been in China for he last four days, hell yeh it's freezing! but there is no problem getting food. the snap has seemed to have ended. I have had a couple wicked snow fights with the locals! came off second best to a couple kids!:eek::eek:

    as for the worry about there economy, inflation is a real problem now, prices have risen a lot since 2004 my first trip. as for there being cracks that could lead to disarster i doubt it, there are over 1 billion people in this country so the local market can take up a fair amount of the slack. but if all the orders did stop there would be quite a few out of work! but i don't think the place would just stop. Have they decoupled hell no they are more connected to the credit crunch then most think, but they have the cash reserves to see them though.

    things are really amazing here, its all man power. all the highways froze up covered in ice so thousands of people all went out and shoveled the snow, the army was also working day and night to keepthe roads clear.
     
  18. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus Well-Known Member

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    ....and more inflation.....

    The Reserve Bank thought it had a problem

    "fast growth in money supply" - I thought that was a capitalist tradition, looks like the commo's have stolen that as well :rolleyes:

    The chart - support holding - for now?
     

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  19. dhukka

    dhukka Well-Known Member

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    Unc, check out this interview on Bloomberg yesterday with the CEO of Asianomics. Paints a very sobering picture.
     
  20. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, thanks for that. It appears the Chinese authorities are even more behind the curve than I thought. I wonder how "innovative" they will be?
     
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