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CPA - Commonwealth Property Office Fund

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by nulla nulla, Jul 10, 2010.

  1. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    There doesn't appear to be a thread for this share so I will start one off if anyone is interested.
    As at close of trading on Friday 09 July 2010, cpa is priced at $0.945;
    cpa is alleged to have a net tangible asset backing of $1.11 per share;
    and based on the last 2 dividends for 2009/2010 of $0.0555, cpa has a yield of approximately 5.8%.

    There appears to be a lot of volatility in the recent price movement. A chart for the last 18 months is below.
     

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  2. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    One week on and cpa has climbed to $0.98 defying other market trends. At this point you would have to wonder if it can break through the resistance level arround $1.00 or will it start another downward leg in the channel?
     

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  3. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Ooops. Looks like option 2, southbound. CQO released a revaluation downgrade and the REIT sector appears to have caught its' cold. Mind you the devaluation was a minimal % adjustment and the market re-action appears to have over compensated by selling down, possibly, more than needed.
    cpa - 29-07-10.png
    Will $0.935 prove to be a support level or will it fall further? Make your own calls on possible re-entry points. Good luck.
     
  4. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    The eighteen month chart shows cpa trading in the upper band levels having bounced off the recent low of $0.92.

    The macd chart shows cpa breaking above the moving average into positive territory and would suggest, if conditions stay favourable, that cpa will go higher and test the resistance levels arround the $1.00 mark.

    The rsi chart suggests that cpa is only starting to move into the oversold levels. However a trailing stop loss to lock in profits would be a good idea if it fails to break through the previous upper resistance levels.

    Naturally you should do your own research.
     
  5. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    The charts I referred to above are:

    1. 18 Months as at 06-08-10

    cpa-06-08-10-18months.png

    2. MACD as at 06-08-10

    cpa-macd-06-08-10.png

    3. RSI as at 06-08-10

    cpa-06-08-10-rsi.png

    For whatever reason, yesterday the charts would not display, only the attachment number was being displayed.
     
  6. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    No warning, and a sharp retrace. Good thing we can have trailing stops to lock in profit if we haven't already jumped before the peak. Whether this is a temporary retrace that will see it bounce from here or whether it will drop to the high 80's remains to be seen.
     

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  7. UMike

    UMike Captain Klutz

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    I owned this a few times late 2009 and did very well.

    But in these times I'd think the stock wasn't that great as a trading stock.
    I mean Long term it probably will be a great buy
     
  8. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    The lower highs and recent bouncing off the support level of $0.925 makes it look like the price is in danger of breaking out downwards. The next levels of support are $0.90 and $0.88.
    In my opinion the fundamentals don't justify the current low price. However the market may be anticipating the increased cost of any refinancing that may be due to be rolled over in the next 12 months.
     

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  9. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Looking for a bounce. Huge volumes today, bouncing above the support level of $0.92, closing the gap on the moving average and pointing away from oversold terittory.

    The RSI chart.

    cpa rsi 27-08-10.png

    The MACD Chart.

    cpa macd 27-08-10.png
     
  10. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Nice bounce. A few of the other REIT's bounced to their recent highs also. Whether they will retrace from here or continue north remains to be seen.
     

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  11. stefan_invester

    stefan_invester Well-Known Member

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    hm
    The chart in the post above mine looks very similiar to the chart of
    GMG, has also been trading in a range for the past few months, and just broke
    out recently,
    i wonder what the cause has been?
    anyone got any ideas?
    Stefan
     
  12. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Dropping from $0.975 to $0.94 and then back to $0.97 in the space of 4 days demonstrates the uncertainty in the Australian REIT sector.
    The overriding influence at the moment appears to be the rising cost of finance from international banks, with REIT refinancing looking to be more expensive as loans fall due and need to be rolled over.

    This is certainly a volatile period in the sector making it harder to identify entry and exit prices. Monday will be interesting.
     

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  13. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    The price continues to fluctuate erratically, making it difficult to trade with any degree of confidence.
     

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  14. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Seven days on and the price has slipped back. If anything the share price is dropping, trending down ahead of the xao. If we have a sharp correction on the xao we could reasonably expect the cpa share price to test the support levels at the bottom of the recent channels.

    cpa 2010-09-24.png

    The RSI chart shows the share starting into the over sold area.

    cpa 2010-09-24 rsi.png

    the macd shows the price gapping down on the moving average which would suggest we have further to fall.

    cpa 2010-09-24 macd.png

    Strap on the lifejackets, we appear to be in for stormy weather.
     
  15. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Currently sitting on a support level, but at risk of falling through.

    cpa 2010-10-01.png

    MACD chart.

    cpa 2010-10-01 macd.png

    RSI chart.

    cpa 2010-10-01 rsi.png

    DYOR.
     
  16. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Nice bounce (and a quick one) away from the support level of $0.92. Didn't have the legs to keep going over the desired exit target of $0.97. Got the staggers at $0.955 then finshed down yesterday at $0.945.

    Volumes haven't been up to scratch this week. I suspect the rising Aud$ is making the REIT sector unatractive to overseas investors, the temptation being to sell rather than buy. Taking advantage of the improved conversion rate of the Aud$ to US$ and getting out.

    Given the surge of the djia overnight to 11,006 we might have another up day on Monday on the xao which could see cpa test the $0.955 - $0.96 levels again. Otherwise.......
     

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  17. acreage

    acreage Member

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    Thanks! very interesting read, look forward to following further.

    post is considered too short so now fluffing out...................
     
  18. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    CPA is testing the support levels again. The macd chart shows the price gapping down from the moving average. Volumes however are above average suggesting for every seller there is a willling buyer.
    The appreciation of the Australian$ against the U.S$ is going to have a two-fold negative on Aussie reits that have properties in the U.S. Property values converted to Australian dollars will be reduced and their income streams will not convert as well as when the aud$ was lower.
    This combined with the higher cost of any forthcomming refinancing may lead to downward revisions of profit forecasts etc. Fortunately the bulk of CPA's properties are in Australia.
     

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  19. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    One week on and cpa has decided the breakout, downwards through the support level of $0.92 and test a new support level of $0.905. everytime it looks like moving up from the $0.915 level it gets pushed back down to the $0.905 - $0.91 range. Didn't see this comming. Oversold in my opinion but what would I know.
     

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  20. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    A period of uncertainty last week in the reit sector, with almost parity of the US$ negatively effecting the property portfolio valutions for reit's with U.S. holdings on the Australian balance sheets. Not good for share values in reporting season. Further additional impact on the sector with the sale by stockland group of their 238 million gpt shares at $2.75per share. The insto's taking up the offer had to raise funds somewhere and the volume of share sales across the reit sector spiked, pushing prices down.
    CPA tested a new low but I would expect it to bounce from here, however with the new lower low, there could be a corresponding new lower high. The recent trend is a downward channel.
     

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