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CCP - Credit Corp Group

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by ilikegirls, May 8, 2006.

  1. ilikegirls

    ilikegirls New Member

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    Hi,

    Have just begun in the market and am learning slowly... Have recently bought CCP stocks based on a consistent trend rise as well as being in the top 200 but not much else in terms of company research. Since my purchase they have declined... :(

    What is the general consensus of this stock and would it be worth hanging onto? :confused:

    Thanks in advance to all...

    B.
     
  2. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

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    Thsi stocks has been crazy sonce and continue to do so!

    Good forecasts growth also

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2006 2007 2008 2009
    EPS 35.7 43.6 53.0 62.7
    DPS 18.0 22.7 29.2 34.2

    EPS(c) PE Growth
    Year Ending 30-06-07 43.6 17.5 22.1%
    Year Ending 30-06-08 53.0 14.4 21.6%

    [​IMG]

     
  3. chops_a_must

    chops_a_must Printing My Own Money

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    This one came up as a trigger tonight actually. Might be a good investment given idiots can't afford their houses anymore.
     
  4. Jackob

    Jackob Well-Known Member

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    Hi ilikegirls,

    Just a few my observations:

    1/ The up-trend seems altered from the chart

    2/ Directors and significant shareholder are reducing their holdings aggressively in the past a few months

    3/ Increasing interest rate costs CCP more on loans, and reduces the values of debt ledgers.
     
  5. exgeo

    exgeo Well-Known Member

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    There are broker reports on creditcorp's website.

    http://www.creditcorp.com.au/investor.asp?MenuID=3&TypeID=3

    While the rating is high (I normally consider myself a "value investor"!), this is one I've sold in the past and wished I hadn't. They seem to consistently beat their own guidance, year after year. It seems that given what you're constantly reading in the paper about folks getting into debt, they'd have a large supply of distressed debt to choose from. As noted by a previous poster, the directors seem to have been selling down a lot of their holdings though.
     
  6. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

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    Hi would you say its a buy at current prices?

    thx

    MS
     
  7. exgeo

    exgeo Well-Known Member

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    Hmm, well if you're in it for the long term then perhaps, but I'd try to accumulate it below 8 bucks. Every now and then it gets whacked down to about 7.80 and then struggles back up to the 8 dollar mark again. Doesn't seem much likelihood of losing your shirt on it and assuming people keep on taking on debts they can't easily pay back, they should have a continuing supply of "customers" for their operations (ie/ the wind is at their back, which is never a bad thing).
     
  8. dhukka

    dhukka Well-Known Member

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    The biggest risk here seems to be that CCP like their competitors have done in the past will overpay for a ledger and have to write it down. As the analyst at Linwar points out CCP have the most conservative amortisation policy among their competitors writing off a substantial portion of the ledger in the first few years but that still doesn't matter if you overpay for a ledger.

    An upturn in bad debts is being anticipated by the major banks at the current point in the credit cycle giving further growth opportunities for CCP. However with more debt purchases comes the increased chance of overpayment. If the bad debt cycle is particularly strong management may be tempted and get greedy. Investors need to have faith in management to adhere to their tried and tested purchasing policy however there is always the chance that a bad ledger slips under the radar. Linwar forecast CCP to able to fund debt purchases from cashflow from 2008, this will improve ROI and also lend stability to the balance sheet and remove some of the risk.

    Given their track record I think management should be given the benefit of the doubt but I'd be watching for any deviation in their stated investment and gearing policies
     
  9. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

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    Hi thanks for the info guys

    Btw dhukka do you hold CCP currently?

    Also would you buy at current prices?

    thx

    MS
     
  10. dhukka

    dhukka Well-Known Member

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    MS no I don't hold any, I wouldn't buy at the moment - not because of the price but because I think there are other stocks out there with just as attractive growth prospects but with a better risk profile.
     
  11. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

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    oh ok which one sin particular?

    thx

    MS
     
  12. hueyt

    hueyt New Member

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    CCP has rallied past $9 from a low of 7.90 in a matter of days.

    I can't see a reason for pricing at these levels. It seems to defy reasonable valuation.

    Anyone have any insights on this?
     
  13. bigdog

    bigdog Retired

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    There has no been much volume in recent days

    Looks like a few pulling up the SP buying and selling

    There are very few sellers which helps
     
  14. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

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    What is reasonable valuation may i ask?

    thx

    MS
     
  15. exgeo

    exgeo Well-Known Member

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    NPAT today reiterated by management to be in the range 18-19m. Therefore mid range forecast gives an EPS of 43c based on 43m shares outstanding (1850/43 = 43c).

    Today's acquisition of a receivables management firm in Malaysia is not expected to be EPS accretive before 2008.
     
  16. drworm

    drworm Member

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    Not entirely correct. The acquisition is immediately EPS accretive however will not be expected to make a substantial impact until 2008.

    The acquisition seems sound and gives CCP an avenue of growth off-shore. Appears they are expecting the Malaysian debt market to follow in the direction of the US and Australia (ie. from agency collections to debt ledgers) and positioning themselves to cash in - as they have done tremedously well over the past 5 years in the aussie market.
     
  17. resourceboom

    resourceboom Well-Known Member

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    A lot of the other companies in the debt recoveries business are behaving like dogs (eg RPC / CLH)
    I would have thought that these companies should be prospering with debt levels as they are.
    After a good ride on CCP I am now looking at selling out, but not sure if they will keep powering on??
     
  18. bigdog

    bigdog Retired

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    IMO the SP has been manipulated today as well as back early January where SP went from about 7.95 to 9.89 on small trades

    Dropped back to 8.20.

    Today opened at 9.42 and closed at $9.75 with small trades
    -- note the number of times 54 shares was traded!

    Has anyone else been closely watching CCP?

    Today: 19-Feb-2007
    Time---- Price-Vol---Value Condition*Codes
    15:56:48 9.750 369 3597.75
    15:56:48 9.740 31 301.94
    15:43:54 9.740 400 3896.00 XT
    15:05:18 9.740 319 3107.06
    14:24:07 9.740 46 448.04
    14:24:07 9.740 54 525.96
    14:05:47 9.750 58 565.50
    14:05:46 9.750 195 1901.25
    14:05:46 9.750 124 1209.00
    13:42:46 9.750 54 526.50
    13:36:17 9.750 858 8365.50
    13:32:52 9.750 54 526.50
    13:32:51 9.700 1,846 17906.20
    13:32:51 9.690 296 2868.24
    13:17:44 9.700 54 523.80
    13:17:43 9.670 551 5328.17
    13:17:43 9.650 631 6089.15
    13:00:23 9.650 54 521.10
    12:59:35 9.650 54 521.10
    12:59:25 9.650 54 521.10
    12:59:15 9.600 2,500 24000.00
    12:59:15 9.590 1,316 12620.44
    12:30:28 9.590 284 2723.56
    12:30:28 9.580 966 9254.28
    12:30:06 9.580 54 517.32
    12:00:18 9.550 1,000 9550.00
    11:54:50 9.500 600 5700.00
    10:43:54 9.450 85 803.25
    10:31:12 9.440 100 944.00
    10:12:02 9.420 1,650 15543.00
    10:06:55 9.420 650 6123.00
     
  19. bigdog

    bigdog Retired

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  20. hueyt

    hueyt New Member

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    The stock rallied hard from 7.90 to where it is now.. with the wisdom of hindsight, with the profit result, that rally has been warranted.

    As for the drivers going forward, its hard to say.

    On the one hand, deteriorating credit conditions means more opportunities. But if credit quality continues to fall... it'd adversely affect CCP.

    It's a tough stock to analyse. Any thoughts?
     
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