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ASX200 Day trading: comments, analysis and opinions

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by aussiedaytrader, Jun 13, 2016.

  1. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    Hi everyone

    I'm wondering if any day traders in ASX 200 index (futures or CFD) around here?
    I am planning to keep a kind of trading journal in here with my comments and opinions related to aussie index and looking for day trades or short term trades - note that this is not intended to be any advise but just personal opinions.


    ASX200 Analysis for Mon 13 June 2016: Lower high will it be followed by a lower low?
    ASX200 13 June 16.png
    So we have a lower high, but it hasn’t taken the low at 5270 level of support.
    I believe that the support will be taken as the volume increased on Friday (the last bar on the daily chart ”“ a long red candle bar).

    The next support is between 5223 (0.38 Fibonacci level of the minor trend) and 5245 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the major trend), but this look like a weak correction.

    The real support I guess would come within the black band (see above chart) between 5130 and 5210. This support comes from:

    • form reading (bar formation in March then in April).
    • 200 MA daily at 5130 and 200 MA weekly at 5210.
    • 0.5 Fib retrenchment of the minor trend at 5160 and 0.38 Fib of the major trend at 5150.

    The big question is the timing ”“ when will these levels be reached?

    I'd like to hear other thoughts :confused:

    cheers
     
  2. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    Whoa - what a big fall in ASX200 index today ! 109 points which is actually 2% :eek:
    So the market has already broken the expected support.
    Would it recover a bit on Wed? Or it will continue with sellers in control?
    We might need to see what is US market doing tonight and get some 'guidance' from it.

    Regards
    Aussie Day Trader
    Read-Learn-Trade
     
  3. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    Today the market closed at the bottom of the support band that I was describing couple of days ago.
    There is a possibility that we will see on Friday a rebound from this level, with a bit of buying bias for the last day of this week.

    At this moment, the global markets are very much influenced by the news and rumors related to BREXIT referendum and we may see some sideways moves for the next few days.

    Regards
    Aussie Day Trader
    Read-Learn -Trade:
     
  4. karmaD

    karmaD Member

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    Huge come back in S&P 500 last night. Made a low at 2050 and closed at 2078. The futures S&P 500 is up 3.5 points, but our market is still resilient to respond. It's only 12 points up at 5157. This is probably because it's Friday and doesn't trust the US over night and global developments over the weekend.

    Regards
    Aussie Day Trader
    Read-Learn-Trade:
     
  5. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    Hi everyone

    time to look at the charts and count some waves:

    ASX200 daily chart 19 June.jpg

    Where next?
    Scenario 1: Continuation of the upside long term trend
    The index is at 50% Fib of the last leg up (wave 5) and on trendline support, so this could be an ABC wave and the trend could continue up. However, first challenge is for the index to take the high from 16th June at 5198 level.

    Scenario 2: Continuation on the downtrend

    As per the wave count on the chart, this could be the third leg of this last downtrend. If during one the next four trading sessions the index takes the low at 5141 then there is a good chance for the downtrend to continue.

    Let not forget the BREXIT poll is due this week so we can expect huge volatility :eek:

    Aussie Day Trader
    Read -Learn - Trade
     
  6. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    i list here ideas for you to use and inspect from the point of view that you may benefit from my narration

    1). everything brexit is pretty much already written into prices ....you can call it Asymmetric something something, but, essentially, the money that matters has already placed its bets, from a "day trading" point of view there is little to use in this the idea of brexit as a price driver

    2). on your site you have listed an orthodox method of a 5 wave progressive single completed upside wave formation, this would appear to be incorrect under the auspice of the orthodox method....
    an appropriate method is to label it as a Pro-regressive 5 wave advance as wave 4 overlaps wave 1

    or

    3). count the progressive moves as 1's and 2's (thus far there would be three sets of 1's and 2's)
    if this second idea is true and we have just completed a third set of 1's and 2's, then, the next move is likely to be a very bullish 3 of 3 (of 3), in other words, using the orthodox method you are employing, we are at the cusp of a major move north

    or

    4). count waves 2, 3 and 4 as an ABC allowing your wave 1 completed, wave 2 completed
    (currently labelled 2, 3 and 4), wave 1 and 2 of 3 complete with wave 1 of 3 about to commence

    5). the fibonacci lengths are purely arbitrary, when fibs are placed from one price extreme to the other price extreme the measures between both ends represent nothing but random levels and cannot imply or infer any sense of likely reach for price to retrace to, there is no context and no relative level for fibonacci to be effect without a third price length to offer context and size...to expand, if your price is 500 and point zero % is 1 and point 100% is 500 then what exactly defines any given level in between ? the answer is none. the level from 0% to 100% maybe 27.2 or 38.2 or 88.6% ....the question is how do you know, without adding a lot of extra time and work, of verification to your work or your open position? how do you define risk by looking at arbitrary levels between points 0 and 100%

    6). there is no record of Pisano (Fi)bonacci ever recording 50% as part of his %'s or ratios, there is no such thing as a Fibonacci 50% level .....no one has ever quoted such a % directly from his work

    7). in "scenario 2" a 5 wave advance has completed and a new five wave decline is underway, then, the orthodox method dictates a label above the 5th wave (which is omitted) plus a label prior to wave 1 is required too to give that series its own context

    8). in "scenario 2" you placed 2 fibonacci grids, however they both start at two different numbers and require an explanation as what makes the differing placements valid, or, what is the reason for the starting levels to be different to each other (5424 versus 5427)

    9 there is no annotation for the Fibonacci relationships between 1 and 3, or 1+3 versus 5, or 1 versus 5 have any correlative values, not withstanding the argument of the value of such relationships, it would be fair to say those relationships would offer a "better" building block than end-point Fibonacci grids as is present in these charts,
    afterall, the point of the exercise is to find convergence or divergence or points of correlation that offer probable insights on the next probable-weighted course of direction, to offer some "sense" of context and the relative size of those probable weighted measurements, thus lowering or defining risk

    10). based on the orthodox labelling, keep in mind, news is endogenous, trend consumes and subsumes news events, however, intraday basis, news algos can hook belief systems, so a system that looks at intraday data may offer better insights than end of day bar charts

    again, this post offers you ideas worth your consideration, to your advantage, based on the methods you prefer at this time, please, consider them in that light.

    words and ideas on a screen..
     
  7. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    Thanks Jules, really insightful ideas :)
    Don't know if Brexit is/was already "written into prices' - Monday gap up was just an example of extreme volatility triggered by news and rumors.
    So I'd say that for retail traders (like myself) the best trade for the few days is actually no trade!

    Cheers and trade safe ;)
    AussieDayTrader
    Read - Learn -Trade
     
  8. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    ASX 200 End of Financial Year: Adjustment after BREXIT

    Due to BREXIT news our market (i.e. ASX 200 index) made the fifth wave down to 5051 level so I was wondering where it goes from here.

    A five wave structure could lead to a low but also there is support at this level - 50% pull back of the range 4706 (Feb low) to 5424 (May high) - chart here

    With so many unknowns and uncertainties on a global scale it's hard to believe we have a low.
    As we know, the markets don't like uncertainty and this is usually a good enough reason to sell-off.

    On the other side, the market needs to adjust after the fifths leg down and in particular given the abrupt fall which had put the index in oversold territory.

    So 30th June (not to forget that this is the last day of the financial year in Australia and fund managers will balance their portfolios and prefer to be invested as much as possible): ASX 200 might go up and reach the trend line at 5192 - that is in the proximity of 38% retrenchment level of the move down.
     
  9. Porper

    Porper Ralph Nelson Elliott

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    It can't be a 5-wave move down. You have wave-4 entering the price territory of wave-1 which is not allowed.

    Some Elliott analysts allow 1 day for the overlap but not 4 days which is what you have. The count is incorrect. It is a corrective pattern down.
     
  10. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    I agree, also wave 3 should be the longest, the theory said. Here, wave 5 is the longest, but nothing is perfect in technical analysis.
    Thanks for comment.
     
  11. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck!

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    No wave 3 cannot be the shortest.
    In indexes wave 5 is often the longest.
    Haven't looked at the count but default to Porper.
     
  12. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    The ASX 200 index managed to close above the trend line at 5230 with a small range on Friday. Having the large move up in S&P 500 on Friday night, we could expect the index to open on Monday up 60-65 points, as futures close level on Saturday morning do suggest.

    A strong open at levels between 5290-5295 would break the downwards trend line but what's more important for near term direction of the market is what's next.

    The bullish scenario would require confirmation with a follow through up day on Tuesday. A pull back should find support now at around 5282 (intraday Monday or daily afterwards).

    However, let's consider the alternative scenario of a bearish move: The bearish scenario would mean to see a spike up on Monday then market to fall through recent lows, first level at 5145 then next level of 5051.

    This would make an ABC after the five waves formation in a downtrend.

    08_07_2016-1024x795.jpg
     
  13. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    ASX 200 Week Starting 1st Aug 2016: End Of Bull Market is Near

    Since the 6th of July the index went up and up and never looked back....

    Considering the low on the 6th as the end of leg two, I'm trying to work out the end of third leg in this extremely bullish market. So I've drawn the two channels (see the blue lines) and a Fibonacci extension.

    ASX 200 29_07_2016.png

    What can we expect:

    The intersection of the upper longer term channel and 0.786 Fibonacci extension could be somewhere around 5619 level by the end of this week.

    In conclusion: If the index continues to go up until the end of this week then the levels around 5619 would be a double resistance. Let's see how the week unfolds now.

    Cheers
     
  14. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    ASX 200 for the week starting 8th Aug

    Is this the beginning of the 5th wave up?

    Since its last high at 5611 the index has retraced to 5565 low, in interval of two days. This is a 25% retrenchment and it keeps the market in a strong position.

    Also, on Friday the S&P 500 made a new high on close so I'm assuming tomorrow (i.e. Monday 8th of Aug) the index will take the highs of last two trading days (end of last week), when the ASX 200 index has actually traded in a small range.
    The question is though if the index will be able to take out the last high at 5611 level as the 5th wave (it should be this week, if so) or it will make a lower high that will be bearish signal.

    What worries me is the weekly chart: the candle bar formation shows an outside down bearish bar closed on the lower half - as it can be seen on the weekly chart below.
    ASX 07_08_2016 w.jpg

    This is in technical analysis a strong indication of a downside movement.
    And let's not forget we are in the month of August ;)
     
  15. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    Been a while from my last post and the market was swinging down to the low on Sept 14th and back up again....to close at 5431 last Friday.

    There are two reasons to believe we had a low on the 14th Sept at 5192 level. These are:

    The index has had a huge up move since - 242 points in nine days - overtaking 50% of the down move from the previous high at 5611 to the low at 5192.
    25_09_2016D-2.png

    The index went beyond previous the low at 5361 from 2nd of Sept.

    After Friday’s close it looks like a lower double top but this needs to be proved - we shall see in the next few days.

    However the index looks exhausted and it needs a pull back, even more after seeing S&P falling 12 points on Friday.

    So expecting a move down, the first support levels would be between 5392 (72 MA) and 5400 (the 50% retrenchment), followed by 5361 level that was the low on the 2nd Sept.
     
  16. aussiedaytrader

    aussiedaytrader Member

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    It has been such a hard period for day trading so no blogging, no postings just all focus on the market action.

    As they say in the market “expect the unexpected” ”“ and this is what just happened. After a sudden and furious sell-off in the morning the 8th Nov (Australia time) and a low at 5052 level (this was expected in case of Trump win), the market came back and actually never looked back so it managed to close last week on a higher note at 5370.
    Now, start of a new week, after the US Presidential Election - hoping that the 'dust will begin to settle' and markets will return to normal trading conditions (kind of 'normal' I should say ;)

    On the daily chart of ASX 200 index I have drawn the lines for the recent five waves down, starting from end of July and until now, Nov 11. Also take note of the downtrend line formed in the same period of time (the descending light green line).

    13_11_2016D.png

    According with the two reasons below we might have a bullish scenario:

    • A completed down pattern ”“ 5 waves down (even if we have wave 4 overlapping wave 1 and some people in this forum will say that this is not a valid set-up:rolleyes:)
    • Higher double bottom.
    Hoever, in spite of the above two reasons the market needs to ‘prove’ its bullishness and we should see the following happening for the ASX200 index:

    --> To take the 38.2% level at 5396 and go higher
    --> To break the downtrend line (descending light green line).
    --> Make a higher high above 5455 then 5498 levels

    If all of the above are actually realized then we can say that the market is very bullish and trade confidently accordingly.
     
  17. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck!

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    Oh my.

    This is terrible analysis.
    Joules and Others have pointed this out before.

    As a technical analyst I really hate to see this sort of
    line drawing chart filling voodoo which is no better than
    an orchestrated story of mumbo jumbo.

    It just makes charting look ridiculous.

    Seriously take the time to understand how to truly analyse a chart.

    My opinion only of course
     
  18. gartley

    gartley Well-Known Member

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    Forget the 5 wave count. We had a perfect ABC down with wave A and C equality. That's all you the information you needed to have Play for the long side.

    Tech is correct. The rest of the indicators only add confusion and don't make the decision process any easier.
    IMO you should not need anymore than 2 indicators as well as price
     
  19. Triathlete

    Triathlete Keep it Simple..!

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    I agree with that as well.:xyxthumbs

    In my case all I use is Price , Pattern and Time..
     
  20. Porper

    Porper Ralph Nelson Elliott

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    I was going to comment yesterday but thought best not as I have pointed out the "dodgy" wave counts in this thread before.

    Elliott Wave can be interpreted in different ways but all rules must be adhered to. Then abide by as many guidelines as possible to arrive at the best fit.
     
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