• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AAX - Ausenco Limited

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by nomore4s, Nov 18, 2007.

  1. nomore4s

    nomore4s Commonsense isn't that common

    Posts:
    2,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2007
    Hi all, couldn't find a thread on AAX for some reason:confused:, bit strange considering it has run from $1.50 to over $15.00 in about 18 months. Looks to be on the verge of breaking out again atm.

    Anyone got a fundie view on this stock?

    Anyone on this stock?
     

    Attached Files:

  2. nomore4s

    nomore4s Commonsense isn't that common

    Posts:
    2,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2007
    Bit surprised no one is on this stock considering its run.

    Has broken out again it appears with $15.50 being retested today and holding quite well.
     

    Attached Files:

  3. grace

    grace Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,237
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2007
    I am on this one (I am new to the forum so I was just waiting to see if someone else responded).
    I bought at $8.50 (during the mid-year correction) and at $15 yesterday.
    This company seems to be going very well. Last financials saw over 400% increase in profits from memory. ING have been buying up over the last couple of months and taken a substancial holding. I like it. They are growing well.
    Would love to hear other' comments though as I'm new to trading/investing.
     
  4. hacheln_mice

    hacheln_mice Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    71
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    What a killer momo stock. I'm still waiting on the sidelines for a good entry on this one.:banghead:
     
  5. Miner

    Miner Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    2,010
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    May 2, 2007
    Probably I am going against wind.
    This company no doubt a good company but currently it is facing a severe management resource issue.
    There is no engineering manager for few months.
    Single client dependent - Minara Resources.
    Facing competition from SNC Lavalin who is a smart French operator based in Australia and expanding.
    Ausenco has drawn up a plan but with no execution strategy or capability. On a short term is good but medium to long term this company will deteriorate its value. Short Term 12 months. Medium is 2 to 3 years.
    I have met recently some of the senior management staff and was concerned to invest my hard earned Dollars on their hands.
    My personal opinion and I could be well wrong in my observation.
     
  6. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Wow quite a contrast of opinions but i do see your point

    Externally they are a bit like WOR imo, in the right business atthe right time

    However both are expensive even forward wise

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2006 2007 2008 2009
    EPS 17.0 45.9 62.4 74.5
    DPS 10.0 26.6 37.4 44.7


     
  7. grace

    grace Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,237
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2007
    Thanks for your comments. This is a short-term for me too. When prices for resources eventually collapse, all of those projects "in the pipeline" will not happen because of lack of funding (although oil/gas ones will I believe). But I think they are ok to hold for now and next year. Hopefully will still see some growth in sp.
     
  8. grace

    grace Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,237
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2007
    Good announcement out today - profit on target (a bit higher actually) for 2007. Actually tripled it's profit for the year to December 07

    EPS 50.5c
    Div 30.3c

    Forward growth expected in iron ore and oil sectors. Can't see anything wrong with this one at the moment.
     
  9. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Yep i agree it beat 2007 forecasts by a bit. Also current forecast for next year maybe a bit conservative imo

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2006 2007 2008 2009
    EPS 17.0 48.3 64.8 78.8
    DPS 10.0 28.1 39.0 48.5

    EPS(c) PE Growth
    Year Ending 30-12-07 48.3 22.2 183.8%
    Year Ending 30-12-08 64.8 16.5 34.2%



    AUSENCO RECORD PROFIT AND STRONG ORDER BOOK Record net profit after tax of $41.5 million (2006: $13.4 million), up 209% arising from efficient utilisation of global engineering resources and expanded international presence. Record full year revenue of $368.3 million (2006: $154.0 million), 139% increase attributed to strong project performance, particularly Lumwana EPC project which is on time and budget. Strong operating cash flows of $88.6 million and improved net cash position of $94.5 million. 130% increase in final dividend payment of 17.25 cents per share bringing year total to 30.25 cents. Record order book of projects with US$2.9 billion installed capital value (2006: US$1.9 billion)

     
  10. grace

    grace Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,237
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2007
    Just wondering MS, how do you upload the forecasts in bold? It is very useful information, and to my knowledge, you are the only one who does it!
     
  11. grace

    grace Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,237
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2007
    Share price taking quite a hit today - fire at main power station for Lumwana Copper Mine. Insurance to pay for equipment damage. Does not mention any liquidated damages for any delays caused. I'm sure there will be delays.

    Anyone holding or following with an opinion. Ausenco didn't say any other loss.

    They should have disclosed such thing surely if there was some chance of liquidated damages.:confused:

    I hold.
     
  12. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    I use to but have sold, I think generally engo firms will find it tough in futrue years not in the sense they arent gorwing but just slower and also they have been in past years expensive. Now they are more fair value so to speak

    Look at WOR & LEI etc

    AAX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    EPS 48.8 71.1 86.1 101.9
    DPS 30.2 43.0 52.0 62.3


     
  13. lucifuge

    lucifuge Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    104
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2008
    I had to sell the other day, the bad news pulled it below my stop-loss. Quite disappointing, but i guess these are trying times. Hope it does well for the holders.

     
  14. grace

    grace Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,237
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2007
    Nice profit result out today, and a nice reaction to the share price. The Lumwanna copper project fire does not seem to have had that bad of an impact.

     
  15. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Yep not bad for a half yearly

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    EPS 48.8 66.9 85.6 97.0
    DPS 30.2 39.0 51.5 60.0

    EPS(c) PE Growth
    Year Ending 30-12-08 66.9 17.5 37.2%
    Year Ending 30-12-09 85.6 13.7 28.0%


    thx

    MS
     
  16. DowJones

    DowJones Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    54
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2007
    Does anyone know whats happening with this stock?

    Fundamentally it looks terrific - does the market know something I dont? I know theres a resource slowdown and the GFC but the SP has tumbled from $16 to $3.48 in months?

    It has low debt ratio, very low PE and PEG - the market seems to have priced in a depression with this stock?
     
  17. purple

    purple Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    302
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2007
    imho, AAX is well staged to start moving upwards :
    - bounced and did not break below resistance of $2
    - slow Stoc very oversold, has hooked upwards on 31.12.08 and looks good for a Swing trade at least
    - 20 SMA has smoothed out into more horizontal, flatter
    - Boll bands has constricted nicely, ready for a strong move.

    if AAX breaks below $2 then I'm out (stop loss at $1.98) but my bet is on it bouncing up towards $3 easily which is the next resistance.

    to round out the Fundamental side, the latest news on AAX is good; it's actually winning more jobs :
    - Ausenco has executed a contract with Uranium One Australia for the Engineering Procurement and Construction Management (EPCM) services for the Honeymoon uranium project in South Australia.
    - Ausenco has executed a contract for the Engineering Procurement and Construction Management (EPCM) services for the development of Bemax Resources’ Snapper Mineral Sands mine in south western NSW.
     

    Attached Files:

    • 1.JPG
      1.JPG
      File size:
      133.2 KB
      Views:
      7
  18. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Yeah looks good, has low debt i hear as well

    [​IMG]

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    EPS 48.8 72.8 72.3 58.3
    DPS 30.2 41.3 47.0 37.0



    thx

    MS
     
  19. enigmatic

    enigmatic Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    388
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2007
    Not to sure if anyone has been looking back into this one it seemed to bottom out at just above $2 and has been going from strength to strength recently at one point having a 100% gain.

    Looks to be in a nice upward trend and with a dividend of close to 6-7% I believe 60% franked doesnt look to bad considering.
     
  20. johannlo

    johannlo wintermute000

    Posts:
    163
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    I'm considering it seriously but given the uncertainty at present re: the overall economic outlook I would ideally like to cash into some of my existing equities before plouging more into the marekt.

    The fundamentals are very sound, if you're looking long term I don't think you can go to far wrong with this.

    If you're after a quick profit then however there are probably better options.
     

Share This Page