So what would you vote?
For me it comes down the very basic decision - should you do something predictable or should you try to shock it?
I'm torn on the predictable vs unpredictable front. On one hand, unpredictable directly equates to more risk for market participants. On the other hand if it's already factored in bond markets (30-40% chance of a 75bp cut at the end of Jan), will it really have any impact on the markets?
Also, I don't think it's about the stock market because at the end of the day, everyone is a speculator. It's about credit markets and getting the yield curve steeper with the least amount of pain in the interim.
The Fed is fighting the war on two fronts at the moment - fears of a recession and concerns about inflation.
At the end of the day, much rather them than me. One thing has stuck with me though and it was a section of Greenspan's recent book. He was discussing his first recession and his big regret was that he didn't act early enough or decisively enough.
With that in mind, to answer the orignial question, my vote is for a drop by 50-75bp tonight. I think it's the best compromise - the cut is predictable but they're just bringing it forward a little.