While these guys tend to air on the bears side, I do have respect for the way Larry Edelson views the market. He is usually well in advance of the markets, and while the Bear comes out to play, I did find a semi positive slant in his most recent article that may be worthy of consideration. If nothing else, it may bive the Bulls some heart...
Your 2008 Roadmap to the Markets!
by Larry Edelson 01-17-08
The Dow Jones Industrials: You pretty much know what my models are saying for the Dow: It's headed down to at least 11,000, probably even lower. If the Dow closes below 11,000 at any time, look out because it could fall under 10,000 in a jiffy!
But here's the real action to watch for in 2008. Once the Dow falls to the 11,000 area and holds up successfully, there is a very high chance that it will be creating a base for a new bull market to emerge. One that could see the Dow move all the way up to 20,000.
What would cause such a move, especially if the U.S. is in a recession? The answer is inflation. The weaker dollar would turn the Dow and other stocks into such bargains for foreign investors that they would pour money back into the U.S. to scoop up bargains left and right. This influx of capital would right the Dow, and send it on a new leg higher.
Keep in mind that the Dow has already lost 70% of its purchasing power over the last seven years. It has failed to keep pace with inflation, and is losing ground big time to tangible asset prices. At some point, that will change, and the Dow will catch up with inflation again.
Important: We haven't reached the point where blood is running in the streets yet, so don't run out and buy any stocks, other than my recommended natural resource plays.
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