2008 Currencies - Aussie Stock Forums

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Thread: 2008 Currencies

  1. #1

    Default 2008 Currencies

    What are peoples thoughts for currencies next year, particularly the AU$.

    The AU$ is an interesting one.
    It's appearing that inflation is at the front of the RBA's thoughts and it would seem a rate hike is a very real chance at the first opportunity.
    Banks have been softly "hinting" at a rise due to the cost of doing business.
    Also if the A$ is to continue it's slide next year and the Fed try to lower rates to boost growth, even at the risk of inflation, surely this has to be positive for our dollar.

    Of course the Euro could be the beneficiary especially as they look to be having inflation concerns as well.

    One negative thing is that it seems when there is a correction is markets, the AU$ gets sold off and if the US is slowing next year then commodity prices will probably drop and that will probably cause a drop in our dollar also.

    To sum up, i don't know enough about currencies to be sure what i think will happen with any real certainty.

    What do you see happening?

  2. #2
    tayser's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007

    Default Re: 2008 Currencies

    Long positions on carry pairs like AUDJPY cop a much harder beating than AUDUSD when corrections happen (you can clearly see where the sub-prime flare ups have occurred).

    BoJ: 0.5%
    RBA: 6.75%

    Fed: 4.25%
    RBA: 6.75%

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