Highs and Lows - Aussie Stock Forums

1. Highs and Lows

Hello,

Very new beginner here. I was reading somewhere a while ago on how to attempt to predict the possible high''s and lows of lets say for the next months figures, via working on some formulas from the previous months high, low and close.... my question is, does anyone no the formulas??

Just trying to use this method in conjunction with the candle stick charting to buy and sell at best time possible.

(Still trading on paper at the moment)

2. Re: Highs and Lows

I'd strongly advise (yes *gasp* advice!) against attempting to buy at the lowest lows and sell at the highest highs. There's barely a better recipie for disaster.

3. Re: Highs and Lows

I would agree, I would be looking more to buy at a price and sell after my percentage profit has been reached. I would then buy something else that is on the potential rise.

I would more or less like to use the formula to work out if my potential stock has the capacity to get to my quota and possibly a guide as to (just a guide!!) to see where the peak might end....

4. Re: Highs and Lows

Did your "something" refer to highest highs and lowest lows Telken, or is it less ambitious? Louise Bedford talks about price increases to expect from some reversal patterns. I've seen it in "Charting Secrets"; I'm sure she discusses it in other books as well. I don't want to summarise because it's all new to me and I might misrepresent her.

Good Luck

5. Re: Highs and Lows

I wouldn't rely upon a formula. There are too many variables that cause the highs, lows and near misses.

Ever heard of chaos theory?

6. Re: Highs and Lows

Investigate Elliot Wave Theory and or Gann Theory (heaven forbid) both are predictive methods of analysis.

7. Re: Highs and Lows

Originally Posted by telken
Hello,

Very new beginner here. I was reading somewhere a while ago on how to attempt to predict the possible high''s and lows of lets say for the next months figures, via working on some formulas from the previous months high, low and close.... my question is, does anyone no the formulas??

Just trying to use this method in conjunction with the candle stick charting to buy and sell at best time possible.

(Still trading on paper at the moment)
I have amibroker and metastock codes for what your looking for. Can be handy for swing trading, but this method is not for beginners.

8. Re: Highs and Lows

Wayne.

Code for PREDICTION? Thats what he wants I think?

9. Re: Highs and Lows

Here's the plot, make up your own minds ;-)

10. Re: Highs and Lows

Originally Posted by wayneL
Here's the plot, make up your own minds ;-)
and here's the Amibroker code (There is some unplotted code if you prefer the fib version rather than the traditional calcs)

Did it myself...quite good I thought for someone as algebra challenged as meself :-) Just need Jose or someone to come along and tidy it up a bit.

Cheers

GraphXSpace = 3;
Hi1 = IIf(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),Ref(HighestSince(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),H,1),-1),0);
Hi = ValueWhen(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),Hi1,1);
Lo1 = IIf(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),Ref(LowestSince(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),L,1),-1),0);
Lo = ValueWhen(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),Lo1,1);
Cl1 = IIf(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),Ref(C,-1),0);
Cl = ValueWhen(Month()!=Ref(Month(),-1),Cl1,1);
Plot(Close,"Monthly Fibonacci Ranges",colorBrightGreen,styleBar);
rg = (Hi - Lo);
bp = (Hi + Lo + Cl)/3;
r1 = (bp*2)-Lo;
s1 = (bp*2)-Hi;
r2 = bp + r1 - s1;
s2 = bp - r1 + s1;
fif = bp + (rg*0.5);
nfif = bp - (rg*0.5);
six = bp + (rg*0.618);
nsix = bp - (rg*0.618);
osix = bp + (rg*1.618);
nosix = bp - (rg*1.618);

Plot(bp,"",colorBlue,styleBar);
Plot(r1,"",colorCustom12,styleBar);
Plot(s1,"",colorCustom12,styleBar);
Plot(r2,"",colorRed,styleBar);
Plot(s2,"",colorRed,styleBar);

11. Re: Highs and Lows

Ah Fib ratios.

OK.

12. whats trading on paper ?

13. Re: Highs and Lows

Make believe.

Often done to trial a method or a trading theory before using your own money or someone elses.
The greatest drawback with it particularly if your trading in a discretionary manner(You alter the trading rules as you go) is that you cannot feel and react to he pressure of fear and greed which you would-----had you used real money.

14. thanx tech/a

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