I think there would be quite a number of charts similar to REDs with todays market so where to from here?
Tech I agree with you 100% as far as taking the money off the table goes as i normally do.
But with RED i like the fundamentals and will continue to hold till $1. Yes i will break even if i'm wrong and prepared to risk that.
Report should be out this week.
What we pay for our shares as longer term holders is all so important...the trendy's ~ well a poor entry is just another 4 or 5% loser for them, one of the many so no Biggy, for us longer term fundamental type punters our first entry is the cornerstone on which to build.
All in all the POG is holding up well, has crossed under the long term trend but certainly hasn't broken down as i suspected it could...and that just has to be seen as a big positive.
Statistics: 114 Closed Trades since July 07, Winning Trades: 93, Losing Trades: 21, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.65
Qe3 was'nt indicated by Bernankie in his last speech in which gold dropped a bit. Still as you said it's so far holding up.
I look at NCM to gauge RED and have noted that they're very similiar in that March 2nd of this year Newcrest had a high of $34.19 and is now $20.94. RED on the same day in March had a high of $2.36 and is now at $1.14.
Morningstar has 7 analyst with a strong buy on Newcrest. RED just the one. Morningstar has Newcrest growth and value rating at a 3 (average) RED on the other hand has a growth and value rating of 1 (highest).
The Charts aren't saying to me get out of RED as far as i'm concerned all the positive fundamentals are still there and it's just following the trend.
Tech As far as playing pokies goes i dont see the relevance. Pokie machines dont have fundamentals other than you lose overall as they are programed for a profit.
Even tho the market has'nt been kind to the gold stocks and stocks in gerneral I think RED will hold it's own eventually.
Comparing holding RED the same as playing the pokies is a silly comparison. That's like saying investing in a business with good fundamentals is the same as playing the pokies.
Tech. By the way not that it's any of your business i'm down 7k not 15k and still well in the black you on the other hand have done $500
I'm down a little now, but not to the point where I dont beleive it will recover. I will hold still, but I must admit I am getting a little wobbly in the knees. Quarterly might raise it a little, and prob enough to make me square, but I do fear more short term pain here for RED.
Dont despair if your holding long term as nothing has changed with the fundamentals. Unless goverment policies change or management start throwing money away i dont see any problems especially if you believe in where golds heading.
On 14/7 you said the above. RED price $ 1.31 at close You state below that you'll be at B/E at $1
Thats 31c so yesterday it was $1.15 so you've just dropped 1/2 your $30K if your little story is correct.
Thats $16,000 --- but then again not so painfull as its all in the mind.
What a crazy way of thinking.Tech. By the way not that it's any of your business i'm down 7k not 15k and still well in the black you on the other hand have done $500
You've dropped (7k to 16K ) and your cock a hoop that your up!---in your own mind.
This is not a personal attack but a commentary in reply to your own posts--I cant see why I cant point out such alarming in consistencies when you post information which is supposed to be factual.
If your going to have credibility with those looking at these posts you should be held accountable---just as Boggo and I have.
Today is likely to be another negative day for RED where it is likely you will suffer further losses with your holdings. COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE.
Let me point this out
Had you sold and kept your imaginary $30K you would have had a further $30K to invest WHEN and IF RED shows signs of recovery.
The Charts aren't saying to me get out of RED
You must be looking at a completely different chart to everyone else.
Tech by the way I did make a point of being up on RED due to your stupid comments about averaging down and buying more where as i've been buying in and out of RED for over 100 trades for a profit.
Call me a liar i dont care but stop bringing up my trades and i'll leave you to your $500 loss on RED and whatever other losses you have because at the end of the day who cares what you or i make.
Show where i have ramped up RED as you continually have your digs for the reasons of so called balancing.
Do you miss Beatle is that your problem?
I find it hard to believe how low red has drifted. Guidance of 75k at total cost of 655 per ounce. 135.5 mil shares on issue gold price @ 1550.
= EPS around 50c next year
If all of these assumptions were to eventuate red is cheap cheap cheap, but even with variations on these inputs, no one could say red is expensive fundamentally. Right???
Do the calculations with variations in these basic 'goldminer' inputs for valuation and I'm sure anyone would be happy to hold on a fundamental basis. I am!!
Also I don't understand how anyone can say they will hold until the stock drop below a certain point. Excluding tech analysis. For me the company has not fundamentally changed and I believe that the current price represents a good entry. Sure there are risks, but I believe that this is certainly in the current price.
I also like management and their 'vision' to pay dividends unlike alot of other miners who throw cash back in the ground as they say.
Red will re-rate and I'm sure it will be priced substantially higher in a few years if not sooner.
From what I've read here RED hasn't produced a market grade ingot to date.
Your certainly right that there are risks.
They are in Africa!
Another thing I can't understand is the fanatical belief in company spin.
Do you think they'll report anything negative.
And there have been negatives!!!
I would not take a second look at this company if the price would have been higher.. Red is just another miner (price taker). The 'spin' is not suggesting red is the greatest company in the world!!! The fundamental 'spin' is focused a company which is about to become a producer that can be bought for less than it is worth. (my perception).
'Spin' also allows users of forums to develop and document ideas with a chance someone can correct or add. I would feel like a crazy person writing ideas in a sketch pad for my own use.
Sorry it's Philippines
Those karaoke gangs are un predictable!
I found no evidence of projects in Africa!!
The Company has a 25% free carried interest to feasibility in the Montague Joint Venture, located 80km NNE of Sandstone, Western Australia, in the Archaean Gum Creek Greenstone Belt. The project is managed by Gateway Mining NL (ASX code: GML).Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) 280-2009-XIII over the Mapawa area, located 30 kilometres north of the company’s Siana Gold Project in the Philippines was awarded in May 2009.
Gold mineralisation has been intersected in historic drilling by former mine operator Suricon at the ‘LSY’ prospect, with indications of target mineralisation of approximately three to four million tonnes, commencing at surface.
An extensive porphyry style exploration target has been defined from electrical geophysical surveys surrounding the ‘LSY’ prospect.
SIANA GOLD PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
The Siana development comprises an open pit operation followed by an underground mine, with ore treated through a conventional modern gravity and carbon-in-leach plant to produce gold dore.
The project, as originally designed, delivers a minimum 849,000 ounces of gold production at a cash cost of sub US$400 per ounce over a ten year life. Extensions to the mine life are currently under review.
The Siana orebody remains open in the north and south, and below 400 metres vertical.
The first gold poured on 3 February 2012 and commercial production (defined as 60% of the initial nameplate capacity of 750,000 tonnes per annum) was declared on 16th April 2012.
June/July 2010 Lows 1.15 Highs Oct/Nov 2.25
June/July 2011 Lows 1.10 Highs Dec 2.30
June/July 2012 Lows 1.09 Highs ????
So all us long termers just have to wait a bit while you duck in and out like a rabbit.
Good technical observation.
Nothing to indicate that it's going to respect support or
Plunge straight through it.
Certainly worth watching.
What would your strategy be if your holding ?
Didn't take it long to jump across from the min to the typical W.5 (chart below).
For anyone starting out, don't just read and forget the post (2851) above by catfish, print it out, frame it and place it in front of your computer and don't ever let yourself be influenced such an approach if you want to be around here as a profitable market participant rather than a spectator in 10 years from now.
Significant repeats of similiar comments that have abounded since RED was at 1.85.
Its a business folks, would you send your employees on a fully paid holiday for 6 months because business has halved. Terminate them and re-employ them when the business turns around - same simple principle !
A picture of reality exists below. (click to expand)
Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimium Eruditionis Habes