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  1. #1

    Post WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    As this stock has risen nearly 200% in approx. 5 months since listing at $1 in the IPO (currently $2.91) - I thought it would be appropriate to start a thread.


    (canyon)They have a 100% owned open cut coal mine currrently in production.

    (Tarrawonga) A 70% interest in this one - and is also producing

    (Werris Creek) A 40% interest in this one - and is also producing

    (Belmont) production beginnning in 2008 (100% owned)

    two other proposed mine sites Narrabri North and Sunnyside are currently undergoing an environmental assessment.


    A growth story that has already attracted some interest and will continue to do so as it expands its operations.

    as always DYOR

    here is a rather bullish chart
    Attached Images
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  2. #2
    Coal & Phosphate, thats it! michael_selway's Avatar
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    Default Re: Whitehaven Coal Limited - WHC

    Quote Originally Posted by imajica View Post
    As this stock has risen nearly 200% in approx. 5 months since listing at $1 in the IPO (currently $2.91) - I thought it would be appropriate to start a thread.


    (canyon)They have a 100% owned open cut coal mine currrently in production.

    (Tarrawonga) A 70% interest in this one - and is also producing

    (Werris Creek) A 40% interest in this one - and is also producing

    (Belmont) production beginnning in 2008 (100% owned)

    two other proposed mine sites Narrabri North and Sunnyside are currently undergoing an environmental assessment.


    A growth story that has already attracted some interest and will continue to do so as it expands its operations.

    as always DYOR

    here is a rather bullish chart
    Hi yes this one will be a monster, indefinitely a takover target now

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    EPS 7.5 6.2 32.3 60.0
    DPS 0.0 3.0 16.0 30.0


    PS: Keep an eye on coal stocsk in general: CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, COK...


    thx

    MS



    A company is worth the PV of all future cashflows (forecast EPS) discounted for time and risk, nothing more or less.
    1/PE = ROI. Money in the bank is about 6% ROI or PE of 16, but risk free.
    Risk = high debt, commodity price sensitivity etc

  3. #3

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    a quick summary of what these guys are up to!



    Profile - Whitehaven Coal Limited


    BUSINESS SUMMARY
    Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) is a coal mining company with the projects located in the Gunnedah Region of New South Wales. Company operates two open cut mines near Boggabri and is a major shareholder of the Werris Creek mine north of Quirindi. WHC is actively seeking to develop several other small mines in the region and a major longwall mine south of Narrabri. Whitehaven also operates the Coal Handling and Preparation Plant (CHPP) and rail loader at Gunnedah.

    Canyon:
    The open cut mine is located 15 km east of Boggabri. Annual production is up to 1Mt. The mining method is truck and excavator. Raw coal is trucked 30 km to Gunnedah for washing at the company's CHPP and then railed to Newcastle for export.

    Tarrawonga:
    The open cut mine is located 16 km north-east of Boggabri. Mining is by truck and excavator method to produce up to 1.5Mtpa. The mine is operated by Tarrawonga Coal Pty Ltd and is a joint venture between Whitehaven (70%) and Idemitsu (30%).

    Werris Creek:
    The open cut mine is located 4 kms south of Werris Creek. Whitehaven has a 40% interest in the Werris Creek JV, with Creek Resources holding 60%. Production is at the rate of 1.5Mtpa. The coal is transported directly by rail from Werris Creek to the Port of Newcastle.

    Belmont:
    The open cut project is located 28 km north of Gunnedah and is due to commence in 2008. Using truck and excavator method mining is proposed at 1.5Mtpa. As at June 2007, an environmental assessment was being prepared.

    Narrabri North:
    The project is located between Boggabri and Narrabri. An Environmental Assessment is being proposed for Stage 1 of the project. Initial production using continuous miners will be 1.5Mtpa. A rail loop will be constructed for rail transport of coal from the project site to Newcastle for export. Stage 2 plans include the production of an additional 4.5Mtpa from longwall mining.

    Sunnyside:
    The open cut project site is located 15 km west of Gunnedah and will produce up to 1Mtpa. The coal will be trucked by road to Gunnedah CHPP for washing & loading for transport by rail to the Port of Newcastle. A truck and excavator mining method will be used with auger mine from highwall if feasible
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  4. #4

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    just released - company's quarterly report


    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

    QUARTERLY REPORT TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2007

    HIGHLIGHTS

    Saleable coal production up 57% over the previous corresponding period;
    Coal sales up 90% over the previous corresponding period, including traded coal.



    The rapid growth of this company in terms of production and mine site expansion is a testament to good management. This exponential growth will continue as new mines are opened and efficiency is improved at Newcastle's coal shipping terminal
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  5. #5
    Coal & Phosphate, thats it! michael_selway's Avatar
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    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    Quote Originally Posted by imajica View Post
    just released - company's quarterly report


    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

    QUARTERLY REPORT TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2007

    HIGHLIGHTS

    • Saleable coal production up 57% over the previous corresponding period;
    • Coal sales up 90% over the previous corresponding period, including traded coal.



    The rapid growth of this company in terms of production and mine site expansion is a testament to good management. This exponential growth will continue as new mines are opened and efficiency is improved at Newcastle's coal shipping terminal
    Might get taken over soon I think, at this sort of growth rate

    thx

    MS

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    EPS 7.5 6.2 32.3 60.0
    DPS 0.0 3.0 16.0 30.0
    A company is worth the PV of all future cashflows (forecast EPS) discounted for time and risk, nothing more or less.
    1/PE = ROI. Money in the bank is about 6% ROI or PE of 16, but risk free.
    Risk = high debt, commodity price sensitivity etc

  6. #6

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    Their growth seems to be exponential at the moment - huge percentage increases each year in terms of revenue and production - the market will soon catch on and it will no doubt be valued accordingly.

    an exciting time for WHC holders
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  7. #7

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    G'morning All,

    With all the fine results for WHC, and more to come in the near future would it be wise to xxxxx at the moment or we might be a bit late at the current speed? Anyone have any thoughts on this?
    Last edited by kennas; 26th-October-2007 at 09:17 AM. Reason: ramp

  8. #8
    Coal & Phosphate, thats it! michael_selway's Avatar
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    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    "Their growth seems to be exponential at the moment - huge percentage increases each year in terms of revenue and production - the market will soon catch on and it will no doubt be valued accordingly.

    an exciting time for WHC holders"

    Hi I agree

    Btw do you know anything about NEC & COK (coal explorers)?

    thx

    MS
    A company is worth the PV of all future cashflows (forecast EPS) discounted for time and risk, nothing more or less.
    1/PE = ROI. Money in the bank is about 6% ROI or PE of 16, but risk free.
    Risk = high debt, commodity price sensitivity etc

  9. #9

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    I haven't really looked at those two (although I have heard on the grapevine that COK have decent reserves and are negotiating with the Chinese and Koreans) - I generally only invest in producers - will have a thorough look today though!
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  10. #10

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    I often find that investing becomes very abstracted and removed from the physical nature of the 'real' world. Here is an image of trucks, busily hauling away tonnes of coal at Whitehaven's 100% owned Canyon open pit mine.
    Attached Images
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  11. #11

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    Whitehaven surging 5% today after a horror lead from wall street

    producers generally hold up better on horror days

    what a champion!
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  12. #12
    Coal & Phosphate, thats it! michael_selway's Avatar
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    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    "Whitehaven surging 5% today after a horror lead from wall street

    producers generally hold up better on horror days

    what a champion!"

    Hi Yep

    Btw do you own any other of the coal stocks above (in the picture)?

    Thanks

    MS

    "Hot coal to rally more, but cheaper than in 80s
    Record coal prices have plenty more room to rise in their demand-led rally as the fuel is still cheaper in real terms than in the 1980s, those in the industry say, with costs to be passed on to electricity consumers.
    "We're going back to the prices of the late 1970s/early 1980s in real terms but the difference this time is that demand is surging and we've got a genuine coal shortage," said Jim Lennon, metals and mining analyst at Macquarie Bank.

    Both buyers and sellers agree that for the first time in their memory, they could not see where prices would peak.

    "This market is genuinely tight," a buyer with a large European utility said.

    "It will take probably several years before there is enough new supply to meet demand and in the meantime, it is impossible to predict prices or say where the peak will be reached. Meanwhile, power prices must rise," he added.

    "There have been problems this year with production at just about every coal exporting country, which just made the situation worse," one trader said. "All of them - Russia, Indonesia, Colombia, Australia, even South Africa."

    Production hiccups exacerbated the tightness and helped accelerate price rises but the fundamental driver behind this year's record coal prices has been a shocking rate of demand growth in Asia, analysts said.

    The two most commonly referred-to coal price benchmarks are CIF/DES Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) and free-on-board Richards Bay for widely-consumed South African coal.

    In January 1981, adjusting for inflation, coal prices in todays terms were $128.00 a tonne CIF Europe and December prices were $160.00. FOB Richards Bay prices in December 1981 in real terms were $113.00 a tonne, Lennon said. "We're getting very close to those levels now."

    Prompt CIF/DES cargoes hit a record $130.00 last week and are widely expected to reach $150.00 by the end of December, having begun 2007 at around $65.00 a tonne.

    South African prompt loading cargoes were trading at $47.00 a tonne FOB in January but this week sold three times at a record $82.40 a tonne FOB Richards Bay and could reach $100.00 by the end of the year, some buyers said."
    A company is worth the PV of all future cashflows (forecast EPS) discounted for time and risk, nothing more or less.
    1/PE = ROI. Money in the bank is about 6% ROI or PE of 16, but risk free.
    Risk = high debt, commodity price sensitivity etc

  13. #13

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    whitehaven close to previous highs - word is slowly getting around that whitehaven has a solid business model. When all of the hot money leaves FLX, this is where it will go. With the ever increasing demand for coal around the world, those already producing and with means of expansion will surge in the coming months.
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  14. #14

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    WHC is awesome. I put it on my watchlist on 28 August, at that time it was at its lowest price. However for some reason I didn't invest into it. Now I realize I've made a big mistake!
    Thank you for sharing those information imajica. I'll keep watching this share.

  15. #15

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    strong buying this morning with very few sellers.

    has just hit its all time high of $3.07

    I wouldn't say that its broken out yet but will be watching closely.

    news should be just around the corner regarding progress with its other coal mine developments.
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  16. #16

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    Highlights from Presentation

    Planned ~4-fold increase in production over the next 4 years


    − Sunnyside and Belmont expected to commence production in Q3 CY 2008.
    − Stage 1 Narrabri North start-up expected in late 2008, ramping up to produce ~6 Mtpa from 2011
    �� Potential for sustained production rates at WMP by accessing additional regional resources
    �� Narrabri South development will piggyback on Narrabri North infrastructure
    �� Whitehaven will looking for appropriate project and corporate acquisition opportunities


    A 4 fold increase in production over the next four years is massive growth!
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  17. #17

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    Ok, I will ramp this stock with you imajica since I have been onboard for a few weeks now. It looks like someone is trying to keep the "last price" down today. Whenever someone bought some from the $2.90 seller, somebody will sell a parcel of 100 to the $2.81 buyer.

  18. #18

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED (ASX:WHC) PROJECT APPROVAL FOR NARRABRI NORTH COAL PROJECT

    Whitehaven Coal is pleased to advise that it has today received Project Approval
    for Stage 1 of the Narrabri North Coal Project from the NSW Minister for Planning,
    The Hon Frank Sartor MP.

    The Narrabri North Project covers approximately half of Whitehaven's Narrabri coal
    tenement, which is located some 20 kilometres south of the town of Narrabri in the
    North West of NSW.

    Exploration of Whitehaven's Narrabri coal tenement has so far generated total coal
    resources of some 438 million tonnes (Mt), of which the Narrabri North area
    contains approximately 230 Mt.


    Construction of the Narrabri North Project will commence in early 2008, with
    exploration of the Narrabri South area to continue.

    Managing Director, Keith Ross said that approval of the Narrabri North
    development is a major milestone for Whitehaven Coal, as the Narrabri area is the
    cornerstone of Whitehaven Coal's expansion plans.

    More detailed information on the Narrabri Project, including coal resources and
    reserves is contained in the attached extract from Whitehaven Coal's recent
    investor presentation.




    The growth of this company is impressive, 438 million tonnes of coal!!!! even at 10 million tonnes a year that's over a 40 year mine life!

    Let's not forget about their other numerous mines that are currently producing and have huge mine lives as well.

    Great news for WHC holders!
    something doesn't necessarily have to be proven to 'actually' exist to have an effect that mimics the very likelihood that it does

  19. #19

    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    this possible small stormcloud on the horizon, from today's smh

    Coalminers at mercy of railway owners

    THE fate of several smaller coal producers in the Hunter Valley could hinge on the rail operator Pacific National.

    As overstretched infrastructure in NSW and Queensland continues to hamper the coal industry's growth, smaller Hunter Valley producers are sweating on getting any coal at all to port.

    It used to be that when a port had to cut capacity, all producers took an equal cut.

    But with record prices and infrastructure stretched to the limit, the bigger producers may end up muscling out smaller operators

    ...

    After coal producers shipping out of Newcastle failed to agree on allocations for next year, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on Friday night received a proposal to allocate port capacity based on railway contracts.

    ...

    But several small and mid-tier producers - believed to include Donaldson Coal, Whitehaven Coal, Peabody Energy, CVRD and Idemitsu - have been informed by Pacific National that their railway allocations will be slashed.

    ...

    A Pacific National spokeswoman said her company expected every Pacific National customer would gain an allocation under the new arrangements. But she declined to reveal whether the allocations could be cut so much as to render some operations uneconomic.

    It is believed it told some producers they would receive only half their requested allocations.

    ...

    http://business.smh.com.au/coalminer...1119-1bfh.html

    cheers

  20. #20
    Coal & Phosphate, thats it! michael_selway's Avatar
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    Default Re: WHC - Whitehaven Coal

    Quote Originally Posted by imajica View Post
    strong buying this morning with very few sellers.

    has just hit its all time high of $3.07

    I wouldn't say that its broken out yet but will be watching closely.

    news should be just around the corner regarding progress with its other coal mine developments.

    Hi just wondering, are u going to participate in the $2.65 per share captial raising?

    thx

    MS

    Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    EPS 8.0 31.3 22.4 40.6
    DPS 0.0 6.5 8.8 17.9
    A company is worth the PV of all future cashflows (forecast EPS) discounted for time and risk, nothing more or less.
    1/PE = ROI. Money in the bank is about 6% ROI or PE of 16, but risk free.
    Risk = high debt, commodity price sensitivity etc



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