i reckon the commodities boom is just starting, we have 20 or 30 years of pulling money out of the ground and thats it. by that time we will need to have transformed our economy into something else, be it a tourism and service focus or manufacturing or whatever. one thing is certain, agriculture is going to be hit by climate change and the mines will eventually run dry. then what?
the most obvious and profitable direction is high tech r & d which will require lots of money put into education and research. we also need some serious money spent on infrastructure upgrades (broadband, national high speed rail, power generation and water purification and so on). if our leaders have any vision at all they would write up a big plan on how we're going to spend the money this boom will bring us to take us to our next phase.
in the meantime i'm going to keep putting my money in solid commodities producers and precious metals to take maximum advantage of this boom to set me and mine up for the future.
If oz runs out of metals to mine then there is a good chance by then that most countries will have depleted their land supplies, dont forget we have ahuge area of Antarctic seabed which is full of commotities.
On the agriculture front scientist believe that brisbane area will become almost tropical which means the wheat industry is screwed but perfect for sugar cane and other tropical species. The other area with huge potential in OZ is the ord river basin. This river is so big that they reakon it could supply all of Oz's food needs, enough water flows thorugh it everyday in the wet season to fill Sydney Harbour!.
I think it 20 years WA will be the premier state of OZ.
Oil prices aren't really rising for US all they go up in US dllars out currency goes up net effect is 0.
As the US dollar declines further oil will go past 100 a barrel all that will hapen is the US will have to cut back and we will have just the same purchasing power as before. The only thing which could screw us is if Oil becomes traded in Euro then i think we would see a cost increase at the bowser.
Are you talking about the blooming or booming economy.
Haha - I was just having a bit of fun there...
disarray : interesting point... but as kiwikarlos pointed out - if we run out - they would have run out too...
So if its not mining - what is going to be Australia's next industry then? I don't see tourism a big thing... maybe baby boomers from all over the world would retire here... technology? Aren't we losing all our tech-heads overseas?
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one thing is certain, agriculture is going to be hit by climate change .
Your forgeting one important thing.
Agriculture is being effected everywhere. Not just here. It's being effected by too much rain as well as drought. Floods have wiped out just as much grain as drought, and that's why grain prices have tripled. River flows all over the world are falling, and water aquifers are dropping by the day because of over irrigation.
I have seen reports that Australia's agricultural production could drop by 30% in 30 years time. But what if prices quadruple???
Think about it a bit.
Australia has the biggest food surplus of any country. Australia exports about twice as much food as we need ourselves. If production drops by 30 % in the years ahead, and drops elsewhere, as it is happening already, who will be the big winner?
Not Japan who only produce 40% of current needs.
Not Africa who already import 30% of food.
Not China or India whos grain production has already dropped 20% because of falling fossil water aquifers and already import food.
Not the Middle East who import half their food and also have falling water aquifers.
The big winners from agriculture will be Australia, Brazil and the US. New Zealand, Canada, will be huge winners due to cooler climates , and also places like Greenland, Iceland and Northern Russia where currently land too cold for agriculture comes into production.
Australias production will drop a bit. Prices will go through the roof. I think raw food prices could rise by a factor of 10 times, in the coming decades, which means food prices on the table will at least double.
Agriculture has already joined the mineral and energy booms.
The only area s effected in australia will be the existing grain belt and fruit tree area's. Even if climate change does change the rainfall so there is drought / flood you can always change what you grow. I doubt food crops will shrink 30%, we could simply plant new crop varieties and employ new irrigation techniques such as mass role out of drip irrigation. Also there is millions of hectars in Australia where we could be growing food but we are currently not growing food.
The NT is a prime example we could grow plenty of crops there but because of the high number of diseases and pests its hard at this stage. GM crops will change this.
The only area s effected in australia will be the existing grain belt and fruit tree area's. .
H'mm. Sure the grain belt will be effected. What about the dryer grazing zone? What about the coastal zone? Look at south east QLD? It's been effected as much as any. So that covers about 95% of producing land
Northern Territory has big agricultural problems. All the rain falls in a few months. No real soil. Too hot. The ord river only became succesfull when everything was grown in the dry, thus irrigation was needed. How much ability for more dams? Then there has to be arable soil below the dam. I can't see much food production moving up there. Although I agree GM food will solve a lot of other problems
The supposed effect of climate change is meant to be the equivalent of moving Brisbane 1000km north. So essentially SE QLD will become tropical and get more rain but it will come in deluges not constant. There are plenty of tropical crops that can grow in these conditions. I would also assume that increased rainfall would make better pastures for cattle grazing not worse.
The other option could be to used the increased rainfall in the top end to feeder river systems flowing south. There are already investigations that have looked at feeding the Murray Darling with water from Northern rivers through diverting flow, this has also been carried out in WA.
Nobody knows the true effects of climate change and where will be wetter and dryer my point is that regardless of what happens we will have to adapt and that we have always had to adapt over time. There were periods in the medievil times that has unseasonable warm or dry spells for tens of years. One thing that you can be sure on with climate is that it is constantly changing. Adaptation is what makes life so abundant and resilient without change and the need to struggle to overcome changes we would become weak and more seseptable to change.
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