USD/JPY

[Kauri]

Looks to be at a very interesting stage.... may be making a WC-W3....
Cheers
...Kauri

[Kauri]

By my count the Yen may be headed to 110 odd... missed the original chance to get on this earlier, instead going with a short on the EUR/JPY which is still struggling.. .. will be keeping an eye on this for an entry if it plays out to my count..
Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

Not sure yet if this is a minor 5th or if the 5th wave is going to subdivide... time will tell...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

The cont is not the best, but at least it's going in the right direction... for the moment...
Cheers
...........Kauri

[wayneL]

The cont is not the best, but at least it's going in the right direction... for the moment...
Cheers
...........Kauri

Not good news for the SM if it continues.

[Kauri]

Not good news for the SM if it continues.

Yes...may be a sign of things to come... have a couple of speculative shorts on on the strength of a bit of fooling previously with time.. holy hell Batman..

Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Am looking closely for a possible short trade... as an old girlfriend used to say.. be patient and let it develop...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Am looking closely for a possible short trade... as an old girlfriend used to say.. be patient and let it develop...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Helped myself to a quick 50 points odd... watching to see if it develops into a trend as opposed to a rumour blip before committing ..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[reece55]

Helped myself to a quick 50 points odd... watching to see if it develops into a trend as opposed to a rumour blip before committing ..
Cheers
..........Kauri

Top trade Kauri, the move in the yen pairs tonight was quite dramatic across the board............ In an hour, the Euro/Yen lost about 100 pips, I am looking for a short on a longer time frame on that pair....

Getting back to the USD/JPY, looks like there was quite sustained selling at 115.90~ level, i'm thinking the pair could potentially test the 111 - 110 level in the coming months..... Ironic however, as the economic data coming out of Japan is less than rosy......

Cheers
Reece

[Kauri]

Top trade Kauri, the move in the yen pairs tonight was quite dramatic across the board............ In an hour, the Euro/Yen lost about 100 pips, I am looking for a short on a longer time frame on that pair....

Getting back to the USD/JPY, looks like there was quite sustained selling at 115.90~ level, i'm thinking the pair could potentially test the 111 - 110 level in the coming months..... Ironic however, as the economic data coming out of Japan is less than rosy......

Cheers
Reece

Hi Reece,
Yep...I'm looking at 111 area longer term... running with a short on the skippy at the moment..
Cheers
..........Kauri

Nov. 1. With the opening slide in the stock markets, the second wave of risk aversion sales has been seen on JPY crosses. The DJIA is now down 200 pts on the Citi fears and other market downgrades with USD/JPY triggering stops under 115.00/10 for a fall to 114.85/90. EUR/JPY has triggered the stops under 166.00 for a fall to 165.65 with more stops at 165.30 and 164.60 reported.

[reece55]

Well, I thought 111 in the coming months, but I didn't expect to already be at the 112 level...

The USD/JPY pair is now at a critical level, if 112 were not to hold (and this is now the second time since Aug we have had a significant test) it will be a rapid move down to 108......

Personally, I highly doubt the Japanese will allow the pair to get much lower - their economy is still in deflation mode and they know the number one important element is to continue to maintain a low exchange rate to ensure their exports remain attractive to their number one consumer - the US...

Cheers

[reece55]

Well, I thought 111 in the coming months, but I didn't expect to already be at the 112 level...

The USD/JPY pair is now at a critical level, if 112 were not to hold (and this is now the second time since Aug we have had a significant test) it will be a rapid move down to 108......

Personally, I highly doubt the Japanese will allow the pair to get much lower - their economy is still in deflation mode and they know the number one important element is to continue to maintain a low exchange rate to ensure their exports remain attractive to their number one consumer - the US...

Cheers

Well, so much for my prediction - 112 was jut defiantly broken and down we go pips in less than an hour....... I will be waiting for a rally back up to 112 and then there is a fairly easy short op to test the 108 area - however, as with most of the USD pairs, it is oversold...

Cheers

[Kauri]

Hi Reece,
Seems the carry trade is unravelling again... AUDUSD-NZDUSD- and most JPY crosses are sinking tonight...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Now this one has me baffled... but potentially it doesn't sound good..
Cheers
.........Kauri

November 9. Lots of talk about heavy coupon payments coming up soon, and an arcane structure designed for the Japanese market some time ago called PRCDs, Power Reverse Dual Currency notes, the coupon and return linked to performance of USD/JPY; with payment due in Yen (or currency of contract/ choice) based off FX performance. According to the gurus that monitor these types of structured products the "magic" number is 110.00, and we are getting uncomfortably close to there. According to sources the volume of these exposures are roughly 20% less than they were four years ago when they last caused a panic, but they are forcing up L/T vol levels significantly.
US equity markets still remain wobbly and traders are very, very nervous that the rout will turn into a debacle in USD/JPY if 110.00 cedes. Spot was last 110.95/98, the low 110.51, with talk of barrier defence

[Kauri]

110 just might be on the cards...
Cheers
...........Kauri

November 9. USD/JPY has slipped back down over the past half hour from 111.10 to 110.85 as US equities come under the gun again. There was talk earlier that a ubiquitous, large, semi-official Japanese governmental body was buying big amounts around 110.60/70, which has scared off some of the sellers, and techies note that spot is ranging between the top of the Bollinger band lower limits, and the bottom of the normal distribution channel (111.15 currently) throughout today's session; however the lower Bolly band zone has slipped down to 109.55/110.35 from 109.85/110.60 earlier, which means effectively that it should be easier for USD/JPY to penetrate 110.50 on the next attempt. An option barrier is slated to be there and was actively defended this AM.
Carry trade unwind is the name of the game, and according to senior traders every time stocks top out the cross selling intensifies.

[Kauri]

Closed out short on the Yen... 110 seems to be very well defended... a bounce and good break of 110 may lure me back in??? (the 4th waves in both the 4Hourly and Weekly are a bit worriesome proportion-wise to the 2nd waves.. )
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Gone short on break of strong line at 110... may now be strong resistance??
Cheers
.......Kauri

[Kauri]

Closed out short for 50 pip odd... not convinced that there is a lot of selling enthusiasm... I think.. or thought..
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I think the Yen is starting to look overbought , that 108 area feels so ...... unnatural ........

I've heard all the 102 talk ............ 105 I think I could swallow , but I think 110 is the target for me now .

[ithatheekret]

Well , the shock of seeing the Yen really rise in strength , has had me fixated ...... until I checked in on my Swissie play , took a small position and it was more tongue in cheek than thoughtful speculation . My 109.300 got hit .... more like rolled straight over as it tapped on 108.'s doors .

Just stunned , USA , had better make way for a new wave of Europeans