I use Commsec Protrader. With this I can track trades that occur before and after market close.
I noticed that today 42 trades went through for Brambles after 4pm at a price not much higher than the 4pm "close price". By my calculations, just over 500,000 shares were traded after the market closed at 4pm. By far the highest volume for the day.
Can any significance be read into these trades? Do they indicate that the price is likely to rise tomorrow (or fall?)
(They are not XT (cross trades) or OS trades (although these are commonly found in the afterhours trade figures.)
One factor that may explain it:
Brambles is currently undergoing an on-market share buy-back. I have checked the quantity reported as being bought each day and it varies depending on the share price. eg when it is trading in the region of $12.80, the company may purchase in the order of 1 million shares on that day (as it reported doing on Friday). While usually when the price gets above $13, the company nly buys a few thousand shares.
Are these "after sales" figures the company doing its share buy back? Or is it people expecting a big price difference tomorrow?
I'm not sure if this fits the same scenario or reason, but sometimes, there is a big price variance between the 4pm price and the after market sale price eg Lion Nathan today at 4pm was showing a sale price of $9.15. After 4pm a number of sales went through at $9.20. Do those traders expect the price to go above $9.20 on open tomorrow. Is that why they traded at that premium price?
The trouble is I suppose in interpreting why things like this happen is for every trade there is a buyer and a seller. I assume therefore that the seller expects the price to drop tomorrow and hence is happy to take the over-priced trade while the buyer expects it to rise and therefore is happy to trade for the 5c higher price.
I know there are a number of questions here, but basically I was wondering if any indication of market open the next day can be found from after sales figures.