The CSM Thread! (Coal Seam Methane)

[grace]

Well, we are all off and racing fast out of the gates this morning.

Nice bid on origin's csg assets as follows (by Cocono):

$1.88/GJ of 3P

$4.00/GJ of 2P

Each one of these bids gets better and better.

That equates to

$1.88million per PJ of 3P

$4 million per PJ of 2P

Looking around the csg sector, there are a lot not trading anywhere near these figures. Suggest there is plenty of growth in some of those takeover targets.

Sunshine Gas - will be interesting to see what happens there. Bid is low compared to what happened this morning.

Nice to see the screen green!

[grace]

BG must be swaring and cursing at present having origin swiped from under them.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph

BG will need more gas now........where will they look next?

[grace]

Interesting interview here with Origin's CEO Grant King.

There were a number of bidders for Origin's csg assets. Also commented that those losing bidders might be looking for quality csg assets. Origin not disclosing who the losers were........suspect we'll see more deals being done on what is left not consolidated in the sector.

IO: It appears that Santos-Petronas is going to turn into a little bit of a benchmark. Do you think that’s a fair analysis?

GK: Well, I think that deal and the deal we’ve announced today are basically fairly consistent and so I think both of them establish a bit of a benchmark for large scale, extensive, high quality, well developed CSG assets.

IO: Good news for anyone that holds these kinds of assets?

GK: That would be right, yes, with shares in companies that hold those assets, yes, that’d be right.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph

[grace]

News just on ABC Radio Southern Qld of the discovery of a new coal seam gas basin 100 kms east of Cloncurry called the Millungery Basin.

Discovered by Qld Govt survey team. Similar coal seam gas as that in other basins in Qld, plus geothermal potential. Basin is 300 km long and 50 km wide.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...006786,00.html

I wonder if anyone knows what is happening with drawing these blocks for exploration?

[basilio]

If the survey results are realistic then it would seem that the companies that gain tenement rights will do very very well.

Makes you wonder why the Queensland Govt wouldn't simply set up its own company to drill and prove the reserves and then either sell them aka PES or move into a joint partnership. Or is that too socialistic ?

[grace]

Looks like those who have sold their PES shares are plunging the money back into anything left afloat in the coal seam gas industry.

My next hunch for a takeover is ESG. I know some doubt their prospects, but I like them for reasons spelt out on the ESG thread. Yes, they are slow at proving up the reserves, but NSW has more red tape involved when it comes to drilling. Fingers crossed, as it is my next biggest holding after Pure.

[beerwm]

I think the next move will be made by;

AGL/AOE or BG, they seem the hungriest.

I think ESG is more a STO-T/O prospect, But who knows when/if they'll make a move.

[Nero64]

Can anyone please point out the difference in the following. I read all pages of this thread and some links but still not totally sure:

1P
2P
3P

Judging by one of the links 2P is the one to use based on CSM contracts.

thanks

[kingcarmleo]

1P = proved producing 90% probability of being correct
2P= proved but not yet developed 80% probability of being correct
3P= provable reserves, might or might not be producible 50% probability of being correct

contingent resource= contingent/prospective reserves- high risk 20% probability of being correct.


That being said lets have an update of the CSG players

Metgasco

1P=2.7
2P= 298
3p= 1538

[pointr]

Read a banking analysts report somewhere on the net today stating that the size of Chevrons latest LNG project in WA may cause a slowing of LNG projects on the East Coast and elsewhere. If their assessment is correct this may affect the valuations currently being placed on CSG reserves proposed for conversion to LNG. That said the world is still an energy hungry place. The WA projects could only have volume on their side for their economics as the cost of deepish water production and development would be high compared to drilling multiple shallow holes in a dusty outback paddock and producing water as a by product.

[bassmanpete]

BOW director Nicholas Mather purchased another 430,000 shares in the company today. He and Ron Prefontaine have been steadily increasing their holdings over the last 12 months or so. It appears that they're quite confident in the company's prospects.

[CapnBirdseye]

As you no doubt will have seen in the press, particulartly the Australian, things are hotting up in the CSM/LNG world.

Santos have a big buyer in Petronas for Queensland LNG..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aI5X1ggQePcc

And have started initial planning for a new CSG to LNG scheme for gas from the Bowen and Surat Basins to service the agreement.

And Shell are extending their interests.

Shell Australia LNG’s projected size would match the venture proposed by Origin Energy Ltd. and ConocoPhillips as the state’s largest coal-seam gas to LNG facility.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-36418,00.html



Might be a few more acquisitions soon by the big players to secure future reserves...

[grace]

Roger, Rogue. Adjusted. Are they your fav. CSM picks??

Closing Price 3/6/08:
CSM companies:
AJL 6.90
AOE 3.88
BLU 0.41
BOW 0.515
BPT 1.67
ESG 0.77
ICN 0.35
MEL 1.30
MPO 1.81
OIP 0.12
ORG 15.70
PES 2.50
QGC 5.69
SGL 0.495
SHG 2.58
SXP 0.61
STO 21.77
WCL 0.73

UCG/GTL companies:
BLK 0.45
CXY 0.185
GLX 0.40
LNC 3.75
MEE 0.75 any others? some are marginal inclusions

Kennas is about to do a stock comparison spreadsheet on this sector. Thanks Col for this old list for a start. Quite a few of those don't exist on the XAO any more.

[rogue_investor]

SORRY... formatting is a nightmare but you'll work it out.

2 observations:

1) if you held PES, QGC, SGL & SXP back when this was posted you'd probably be laughing by now. (I haven't followed GLX or MEE)

2) for an industry that is so hot at the moment there are still a lot of opportunities when you compare the SP from 12 months ago. I'm especially surprised by STO which is a buy on a lot of peoples radars. Still down 25% on it's yearly high.

only BOW, ICN and ESG up on yearly highs.

I still hold BOW, ESG, OIP and BUL.


Name Last/Cls % YTD % 1y
BOW.AX BOW ENERGY 0.81 140.84 104.19
ICN.AX ICON ENERGY 0.345 73.17 26.79
ESG.AX EASTERN STAR GAS 0.865 46.96 5.62
ORG.AX ORIGIN ENERGY 14.52 -11.04 -8.93
AOE.AX ARROW ENERGY 3.56 28.36 -10.65
WCL.AX WESTSIDE CORP 0.52 8.33 -21.80
STO.AX SANTOS 14.7 8.38 -25.90
OIP.AX ORION PETROLEUM 0.092 31.43 -26.40
CXY.AX COUGAR ENERGY 0.11 112.96 -32.35
MPO.AX MOLOPO AUST 1.195 32.94 -36.87
BPT.AX BEACH PETROLEUM 0.825 -14.06 -39.34
MEL.AX METGASCO 0.56 8.55 -49.21
AJL.AX AJ LUCAS GROUP 2.94 -36.97 -53.76
BLU.AX BLUEFREEWAY 0.036 -21.74 -55.00
LNC.AX LINC ENERGY 1.73 -13.28 -60.23
BLK.AX BLACKHAM RSCS 0.145 131.34 -69.00
PES.AX NA
QGC.AX NA
SGL.AX NA
SHG.AX NA
SXP.AX NA
GLX.AX NA
MEE.AX NA

[rogue_investor]

oops.. Blue Energy is BUL..


BUL.AX BLUE ENERGY 0.2 -2.38 -50.00

[beerwm]

There are also

COI
ECU
RAW
AGL - i think AJL sold out didnt they?

VPE - exposure through BOW's don juan.

[kennas]

I've started working on a comparison spreadsheet.

Like the IO one, should have been done properly some time ago, but there's probably still some action left in the sector.

Open to suggestions on what to add in to the spreadsheet.

I'd like to put a value on each company with their current resources based on the average value per P of the recent corporate action. What averages should we use?

Also, Is GIIP the same as 3P?

I noticed YT used $1 per 1P and $2 per 2P??

I've only included 3 companies so far, the ones I hold.

MEL
ICN
WCL

Would appreciate some help adding in further companies.

Require the following info:

Company
Loc
Acerage
Shares on issue
Options
Share price
Cash
Debt
GIIP
3P
2P
1P
Comments


Cheers!

[nioka]

Kennas,

Can I suggest that BUL be added. BUL is an interesting one at the moment.They have just had a successful SPP and have issued shares to the large LPG Korean firm Kogas. They also have Stanwell as a large shareholder. Stanwell are power generators in Qld.

They have new management, large acreage and are starting a new drilling program.

In my opinion they are one for the future,reasonably priced too. An SP of 20c and a MC of $113M

[kennas]

Kennas,

Can I suggest that BUL be added. BUL is an interesting one at the moment.They have just had a successful SPP and have issued shares to the large LPG Korean firm Kogas. They also have Stanwell as a large shareholder. Stanwell are power generators in Qld.

They have new management, large acreage and are starting a new drilling program.

In my opinion they are one for the future,reasonably priced too. An SP of 20c and a MC of $113M

Cheers nioka. Can you list the company details needed above and I'll insert it. Thanks,

[Mad Mel]

Hi Kennas.

One of the lesser-known junior companies. Disclosure: I hold CRM.