Speaking from my experience as a metal dealer, there are 3 points to look out for in metal trading. If the 3 points are matched, the trade will be a good one. However it is not common for all the 3 points to match. But when they are matched, it will be a great money making opportunity.
1. Know what is the motive of hedge funds now.
Hedge funds nowadays are very powerful. They can buy up 50% of the world inventory of a particular metal, freeze the supply and let the natural demand in the physical market push up the price. The real victims are the real consumers of the metals. The funds are doing that on tin, lead and zinc now.
I do notice that movement of funds are rarely mentioned when discussing on the directions of metals. Funds play an important role on base metals these days.
2. Technical analysis.
If there is a bullish indicator, all the metal traders in the world are looking at the same chart. And most will react to the same bullish indicator.
3. Fundamental supply and demand.
Find out if the metal is in suplus or deficit? Is the inventory level rising or falling? Does China has a growing appetite for this metal now?
Fundamental is still important, but it is not the most important factor in today's world.
Hope my suggestion is useful.