A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions - Aussie Stock Forums

# Thread: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

1. ## A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed. Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.

Care to discuss?

2. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Here is an example of what should be banned:

To be conservative, I will assume an average width of just 50m (ranges 0-200m), a depth of just 100m (we have this confirmed already) and a strike of 1km (already confirmed)

Summary: 1000m (strike) x 50m (width) x 100m (depth) = 5,000,000 m3…x 3.2 (sg) = 16,000,000 tonnes

Discounting the high grade results from the transported materials, and paying greater attention to the average grade of all test samples,we come up with the following potential parameters…

Cu @ .5% (recoverable) x 16m tonnes = 80,000t Cu = \$800m
Ni @ .2% (recoverable) x 16m tonnes = 32,000t Ni = \$1,088m
PGM's 4.5g/t (recoverable) = 2,314,800 oz (assume av \$800/oz) = \$1,855m
Silver?
Zinc?

Total in-situ value (recoverable) = \$3,743m…or… \$3.74 billion

An applied market value of 10%of inground (assuming an economic resource) gives us a market cap of \$374m…or about \$5.67 per share.

Add cash, and other assets and you get about \$6.00 per share.

Now before getting too excited, remember this will not happen overnight, but if drilling continues to confirm the nature of this find, such prices are more than possible.

Remember also, the above numbers assume a depth of just 100m…which has already been confirmed…double this to 200m for similar grade and you get \$12 per share. Importantly, mineralisation to 1km is not uncommon in this part of the woods, although I would be happy with just 500m.

3. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Can you see how a share price goes from 14 cents to 90ish cents, then we have an expert claim its worth \$5.67 then \$6.00 then inflates that to \$12.00

This is utter ramping!

No chart, just wild claims with lots of fluff.

This same person did exactly this on CDU and how many thousands of investors got burnt

4. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Stop_the_clock
Here is an example of what should be banned:

To be conservative, I will assume an average width of just 50m (ranges 0-200m), a depth of just 100m (we have this confirmed already) and a strike of 1km (already confirmed)

Summary: 1000m (strike) x 50m (width) x 100m (depth) = 5,000,000 m3…x 3.2 (sg) = 16,000,000 tonnes

Discounting the high grade results from the transported materials, and paying greater attention to the average grade of all test samples,we come up with the following potential parameters…

Cu @ .5% (recoverable) x 16m tonnes = 80,000t Cu = \$800m
Ni @ .2% (recoverable) x 16m tonnes = 32,000t Ni = \$1,088m
PGM's 4.5g/t (recoverable) = 2,314,800 oz (assume av \$800/oz) = \$1,855m
Silver?
Zinc?

Total in-situ value (recoverable) = \$3,743m…or… \$3.74 billion

An applied market value of 10%of inground (assuming an economic resource) gives us a market cap of \$374m…or about \$5.67 per share.

Add cash, and other assets and you get about \$6.00 per share.

Now before getting too excited, remember this will not happen overnight, but if drilling continues to confirm the nature of this find, such prices are more than possible.

Remember also, the above numbers assume a depth of just 100m…which has already been confirmed…double this to 200m for similar grade and you get \$12 per share. Importantly, mineralisation to 1km is not uncommon in this part of the woods, although I would be happy with just 500m.
Hello STC,

I hate ramping more than most here, blatant rampers should get a warning & then banned i.m.o.

However , I think if somebody goes to the trouble of getting all the figures together as in your post above, then works out for eg.a price based on the pe ratio, I would say that is fine.

We can also give a possible price guide using Fib no's etc.As long as the sums and even better, a chart posted that is also ok i.m.o.

What isn't ok are posts like you get on Hotcopper like "Screaming buy-cheap as chips" etc.

We have good mods here so I don't think standards will drop too much, however as ASF grows we will undoubtedly attract some of these losers posting here.

5. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Here is an example of a post that qualifies for a price prediction

Yes I did sell out of PEN.

The current breakout is not as you say outstanding.
However after a fairly shallow pullback it appears to be off again making a new high on good volume.

This move in my view has more to go than the last 2 up moves.
I've been trading this and others as day and very short term trades and as such I'm ready to re enter based on my criteria of a new high on good volume with the close at the top of the last days trading

6. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

grr your such a tool kris.. the same poster called the potential of that stock before its run... at that time it had a tiny market cap..Do you think its gone this far purely on day traders? obviously others have also realised the potential here..

7. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Stop_the_clock
If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed. Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.

Care to discuss?
If TA is OK as a predictive tool then why not FA? (eg.figures, earnings). For some people, the latter is more useful than a chart, and also its less subjective.

8. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Stop_the_clock
If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed. Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.

Care to discuss?
The difference I see between the two examples is that the fundy is optimistic and the techy is realistic.

Who would be the first peed off at the stock running to \$6.00 + while still scratching lines on his glorified chart speculation?Phoooey.....if someones opinion isn`t in line with yours then find one that is.

9. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

just quickly porper - i dont recall you doing too badly out of NMS a year or 2 ago - now that was a blatant ramp, but only due to my lack of T/A skills - and have you noticed I'm back on their bandwagon again.....read into it what you will.

10. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

well, I'm predicting that there won't be a total ban on predictions

11. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

I think Joe's policy is that you must back up any share price prediction with analysis, whether FA ot TA.

I think pasting a share price prediction is dangerous and there are perhaps some who are ramping when they do it, but we can all question them and their methodolgies in the end.

There are definately some sp predictions/evaluations that are warranted IMO.

For example, YTs valuations are based on solid analysis of in situ value and when presented we can all analyse it, discuss it, and disagree if we wanted. Most of us actually learn something.

Also, the same with any TA perspective with a chart discribing where the stock is and where it might go backed up with the 'theory' helps. Approximate probable price targets can be given and if anyone does then we can all analyse the theory, research and make our own minds up.

So, although a 'total ban' might be an easy way to solve the problem of blatant ramping, we'll lose some detailed analysis, both TA and FA, if we do that I think. And perhaps we'll be worse for it?

12. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

i agree with kennas

the fundamental analysis can provide us with information such as insitu values etc and compare to similar companies with similar resources ie size and market cap can then be compared to identify undervalued companies.

the fundamental analysis can be combined with technical to show undervalued companies who are demonstrating breakout patterns.

as long as someones price prediction is justified by TA or FA then i think this is fine.

13. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Stop_the_clock
If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed. Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.

Care to discuss?
Probably no need for this thread if the creator wasn't such a good ramper in his past.
Maybe he still is?
No getting away with it?

14. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Most of the TA predictions are laughable in their accuracy to the same extent as the \$6.00 prediction for a 50c share. One should realise that most of the fundamental predictions have no risk discounting which is why they are so optimistic...the TA predictions are only more "realistic" because they are located closer to the current share price but from my emperical observations no better than a random number generator. If one looks back at a posters history or at older posts in current threads we see plenty of price or price action predictions which did not occur.

15. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by son of baglimit
just quickly porper - i dont recall you doing too badly out of NMS a year or 2 ago - now that was a blatant ramp, but only due to my lack of T/A skills - and have you noticed I'm back on their bandwagon again.....read into it what you will.
Yes, I did nicely, and bought some a few weeks ago.Just sold them before their recent surge, but that's life.

Baglimit, just because a share is ramped doesn't mean that it isn't a good bet.Maybe you did ramp, sorry yes, you definitely ramped NMS, but people are fools if they buy because of it.

INL has been ramped to Hell and back but I hold nevertheless because the T.A said buy.I just ignore 90% of the INL posts.

People who blatantly ramp should be banned, end of story.

16. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Stop_the_clock
Here is an example of a post that qualifies for a price prediction

Yes I did sell out of PEN.

The current breakout is not as you say outstanding.
However after a fairly shallow pullback it appears to be off again making a new high on good volume.

This move in my view has more to go than the last 2 up moves.
I've been trading this and others as day and very short term trades and as such I'm ready to re enter based on my criteria of a new high on good volume with the close at the top of the last days trading
That post, based on a chart, seems perfectly reasonable to me. Or have I missed something?

It's no different to looking at a weather chart, applying conventional meteorological knowledge and concluding that it will probably rain tomorrow. Pure commonsense says that there is no guarantee that the forecast of rain will be correct even though it is likely so we all act accordingly. Same with a share price forecast IMO.

17. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Stop_the_clock
If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed. Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.

Care to discuss?
Hi STC

Where is your indomitable spirit? You know, the one where you choose your own thoughts, emotions and responses.

Cheers

18. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by kennas
I think Joe's policy is that you must back up any share price prediction with analysis, whether FA ot TA.

I think pasting a share price prediction is dangerous and there are perhaps some who are ramping when they do it, but we can all question them and their methodolgies in the end.

There are definately some sp predictions/evaluations that are warranted IMO.

For example, YTs valuations are based on solid analysis of in situ value and when presented we can all analyse it, discuss it, and disagree if we wanted. Most of us actually learn something.

Also, the same with any TA perspective with a chart discribing where the stock is and where it might go backed up with the 'theory' helps. Approximate probable price targets can be given and if anyone does then we can all analyse the theory, research and make our own minds up.

So, although a 'total ban' might be an easy way to solve the problem of blatant ramping, we'll lose some detailed analysis, both TA and FA, if we do that I think. And perhaps we'll be worse for it?
What kennas said.

I have no problem with price predictions based on someone's detailed fundamental or technical analysis of a particular stock. But the prediction must be based on something. Price targets pulled out of thin air are not acceptable and will more than likely be deleted by either myself or one of ASF's moderators. If you're going to tell us how much a company's share price is going to be worth then be prepared to tell us WHY it's going to be worth that. If you can justify it then fair enough. If you can't then don't post price predictions. It's that simple.

19. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Joe, do you really live in Prague? How come I never noticed that before
Or is Prague just your fantasy?

20. ## Re: A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions

Originally Posted by Joe Blow
What kennas said.

I have no problem with price predictions based on someone's detailed fundamental or technical analysis of a particular stock. But the prediction must be based on something. Price targets pulled out of thin air are not acceptable and will more than likely be deleted by either myself or one of ASF's moderators. If you're going to tell us how much a company's share price is going to be worth then be prepared to tell us WHY it's going to be worth that. If you can justify it then fair enough. If you can't then don't post price predictions. It's that simple.
If the market turns then bearish predictions by shorters could be far worse than the bullish predictions.

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