AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Kremmen]

I can only hope you AUT scumbags don't get your grubby hands on my EKA shares!

AUT is welcome to my EKA shares, if they pay what they're worth ... which is way more than what they are currently asking. Some big trades are happening well above the 45c level, so obviously the market expects this not to be the final offer.

[Sdajii]

I didn't expect this to be the final offer either, and sure, if they wanted to pay what they were worth it would be fine, but what are they worth? I had a target of something around a dollar. I'd probably sell out now for 70-80c, maybe a bit less, but for less than that I'd prefer to see what EKA can do over the year or two.

It's particularly frustrating to see this offer come when Brioche hasn't been touched yet, and no value is being factored into the share price. AUT probably wouldn't even want it, they'd just sell it off.

I was hoping to see what we're seeing today. AUT's order at 45c hasn't been touched. So far it looks like AUT will at least have to up their offer to something a little bit less ridiculous. I haven't been holding EKA for years to take 45c now.

[poverty]

Good day to be an AUT holder. They're going to pick up EKA cheap, they'll have to pay a bit more than 45c, but not much more IMO.

[Assasin]

AUT "scumbags"???? Wow. Thats not like you!

I think we all need to raise a toast to AUT for finally breathing some life into the EKA sp.
Sdajji, why aren't you as critical against EKA management for failing to at least maintain an sp at least close to where the all time high was let alone let it drop by more than 60%. Lets face it, EKA has been struggling to gain traction and positive sentiment in what is a tough market.
Agree the offer is a bit low but another 10-20% and it will be gone and we all do very nicely.

I have to declare I am a 5 year AUT happy holder.

[Assasin]

This could become very interesting in the next week.
If the SP sneaks into the early 50's over the next few days, will we see a few large holders begin selling off assuming AUT may only need to up their offer 20% (54-55c)?
Not that all holders will be happy with that (I'm ecstatic) but who hasn't started to consider where their huge gains will be re-invested?
Or does everyone hold out and risk AUT walking away? What does that do to the SP in the short term?
Now we've all had time for this to soak in, lets hope something can be sorted out, I guess, as many here do, the advantages of holding both.
Can't say I won't miss those silly comparisons and ratios that were meaningless between both AUT and EKA. I've held both for a long time with AUT being a 12-bagger and EKA a 2-bagger on current prices. The only ratio worth worrying about.
Be great to hear from the more experienced.

By the way, we've all missed the point that AUT has continued to smash out new highs.
Got to be worth a few of these.

[philly]

Good day to be an AUT holder. They're going to pick up EKA cheap, they'll have to pay a bit more than 45c, but not much more IMO.

EKA has rejected the AUT offer of 45 cents as below value.
It says SUGARLOAF is valued at 56 cents per share minimum. Also the current offer does not take into account EKA'S other interests namely Pan de Azucar [675 acres], Black Jack Springs [916 acres] and the Brioche Project [4460 acres] or cash reserves [$5.2 m as at 16/3/12]. It is difficult to factor in any value for its other acreage as at the moment we are dealing with potential. The cash reserves would be woth 2 cents per share. All in all it would seem that AUT will need to bid higher if it wants EKA. IMO it looks like 58 cents would be a starting point.

[Assasin]

My concern Philly, is what happens when AUT simly walks away which could be on the cards.
I wonder how far the SP will retrace, i guess that's why some are selling now.
Cheers.

[philly]

My concern Philly, is what happens when AUT simly walks away which could be on the cards.
I wonder how far the SP will retrace, i guess that's why some are selling now.
Cheers.

If AUT walks away then I would expect the SP to fall back to the low -mid 30 cent range.
The only hope would be that AUT'S takeover bid has exposed EKA to the market and there is some interest in it. The current management is certainly not very good at promoting itself. In fact today's release contained some passsion for once.

[basilio]

I just noticed there seems to be large financial scandal brewing around the operations of Chesapeake as a parent company to the many shale oil operators.

I havn't quite understand what has happened but does anyone in AUT have any better information and does/could it impact on their operations and profitability ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83H0GA20120418

[Kremmen]

Fun to see the war of words between AUT and EKA. There were a few EKA sell-outs at 45c yesterday, but now we're back to 47/47.5c.

Those of us who've been investing in the Sugarloaf companies will remember the takeover of ADI about this time in 2010 by AWE. The initial offer then was increased by a few cents and everyone caved. Back when AUT made their EKA offer, I'd have said they'd need to increase it a lot (60c+), but the general market gloom has probably brought the required level down a bit. They could probably offer 55c and be successful, and it'd still be a good bargain for them.

If AUT holds firm on the 45c offer and don't get control, it's a huge wasted opportunity. Assuming that Sugarloaf performs well, as it has in the past, EKA's value will shoot up this year. (... and proportionately far more than AUT's, with so many rubbish wells outside Sugarloaf.)

[I hold both EKA and AUT]

[trader8888]

Just found this very interesting piece of information on the TRRC submitted by marathon -

Now they state that estimated recoverable GAS reserves from Sienkiewicz 2h, 3h & 6h are 2.7BCF per well which works out to be 450,000 boe, now take into account they are only talking about the gas, so using the gas to condensate ratio for this part of the play which is 274bbls/mmscf we get -

274 bbls x 2,700 mmscf = 739,000 bbls

So adding the Gas and oil we get a per well EUR of -

1,189,800 boe

Which is a long way from our current projected 748,000 EUR for this part of the play.

Also notice the %20 recovery factor, where as AUT's reserves are calculated on a recovery factor of ~7%, adding up the numbers they are assuming these figures on well spacing's of 72 acres so more upside to come with down spacing, which today AUT announced -

"Independent reservoir modelling being carried out – initial results supportive of down spacing from 80 acres."

Also notice how the hilcorp well only has an EUR of 1.6BCF or a total well EUR of -

1.6 * 6 = 266,000 boe

274 x 1600 = 438,000 bbls

Total EUR - 704,400 boe this is close to our current estimated EUR, and this just demonstrates just how committed marathon is to optimising drilling, completion and production processes.

At closer inspection the estimated EUR marathon are reporting for the condensate window 965,000 boe is basically the median figure of the implied EUR from marathon and AUT's estimated EUR

1,189,800 - 748,000 = 441,800

441,800 * 2 = 220,900

748,000 + 220,900 = 968,900

Could be a case of marathon not wanting to sound to bullish, or waiting until they have finished leasing before releasing what they really think.

Either way the EUR of 748,000 used for calculating AUT's reserves is way out of the ball park. Compound this with pilot drilling, Austin chalk production and pad drilling to come and the reserves figures start to multiply.

[golfmos123]

Not much action on the thread of late despite the significant negative price action at the moment with the uncertainty of the EKA takeover. Seems like AUT has been belted for it....

Would like to think it has bottomed out around $3 or so, but wary about getting back in just yet.....

[Flipper]

Does anyone know what happened to condog? I've been missing his insights around these forums lately.

[howmanyru]

Does anyone know what happened to condog? I've been missing his insights around these forums lately.

I would imagine he made his millions on AUT and split.

[springhill]

AUT has released their latest company presentation.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2012071...jyknxnxkr0.pdf

[RNI]

AUT has released their latest company presentation.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2012071...jyknxnxkr0.pdf

Flipper

Condog has turned up on HC a bit lately which was great as many, like you and lots of others and myself have missed his fabulous input. He was a BIG personality and yes, very missed. Pity. Still hope he comes back.

[Flipper]

Flipper

Condog has turned up on HC a bit lately which was great as many, like you and lots of others and myself have missed his fabulous input. He was a BIG personality and yes, very missed. Pity. Still hope he comes back.

RNI I've been away for a few months & am just seeing this now. Hotcopper you say? Does he still post under the same name? I'd love to buy that bloke afew beers! Heck i probably owe him a few slabs!

[berbouy]

gday flipper-condog was posting a while ao as oilgoldgas on the other site- say one thing about condog, he was always happy to share his knowledge of the industry, and especially the world of aut-hope he did make his millions!he was always worth reading, and knew aut inside out,should have listened to him, instead of locking in to samson- thems the breaks as they say.
have a good weekend.
howis aut travelling these days, havent followed for a while, any broker targets noted/being met?

[So_Cynical]

I probably shouldn't be saying this on this thread (fanbois and all) but with all the US gas independence talk and production costs close to break even across the US industry.

Is AUT now a mid to long term short??

Thoughts?

[Assasin]

Just curious So_Cynical,

How did you fair with your position?