Quantcast
Potential Breakout Alerts! - Aussie Stock Forums

Page 1 of 113 123451151101 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 2254
  1. #1
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Potential Breakout Alerts!

    Well, it's been suggested a few times under various headings, but I thought I'd start this to see where it goes.

    All those people who have been watching a stock and can see that it might be about to breakout now have a place to put it. Of course, this can not just be an opportunity to ramp your stock, and I suggest there must be some logic and analysis behind your pick. A chart would almost seem essential.

    Obviously, punters who place a stock on this thread, only to find their stock gets smashed and never actually breaks out is going to come under scrutiny. So, be prepared to be analysed yourself!

    I don't actually have a stock to kick it off, but will do some searching and get back to you.

  2. #2
    Administrator Joe Blow's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    ASF
    Posts
    4,845
    Blog Entries
    4

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    I will observe this thread for a few days to a week and if it simply becomes a vehicle for people to ramp up stocks they hold it will be removed and the experiment never repeated.

    As kennas said, a detailed analysis, complete with a chart, must be presented or your post will be removed. Posts of one or two sentences just wont cut it.

    I give this thread a week tops... but I would like to be proven wrong. Lets see.

  3. #3
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Blow
    I will observe this thread for a few days to a week and if it simply becomes a vehicle for people to ramp up stocks they hold it will be removed and the experiment never repeated.

    As kennas said, a detailed analysis, complete with a chart, must be presented or your post will be removed. Posts of one or two sentences just wont cut it.

    I give this thread a week tops... but I would like to be proven wrong. Lets see.
    I'll try and keep track of it Joe and grill punters on their analysis if required to keep it real. If used properly this has great potential. As I said, some people's credibility will be on the line if they just throw up a code.

    Not saying I'm any expert on this either, just want to keep the forum honest.

  4. #4
    Lord of the Ledgers Kipp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Brisbane
    Posts
    385

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Yeah. POTENTIAL is in many ways more useful than CONFIRMED. When you see a chart of a stock that has already rocketed 35% all you think is "if only..."
    Nice thread K
    Advice is a refugee. Everyone wants to give it, no-one wants to take it...

  5. #5

    Cool Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Hey Kennas,

    Great idea. I noticed a few posters got lashed for doing this in the 'outstanding alert' thread, so probably apt to start another..

    I'm not a analyst by any strech of the imagination, so please go a little easy..

    I'm assuming here that we can call a 'short' breakout, so I'll tip IAG at the minute as shareholders have just been offered up to approx 1000 shares at $5.50 after a fairly big insto take up somewhere between $5.10 - 5.50. As the SP is sitting around the $6.10 - 6.20 mark I'm expecting many to sell shares (at least a thousand of them) at these prices and pick them back up at the placement price. This seemed to take place in the T3 placement so I'm simply assuming something similar will occur.

    Then again I've been wrong more times than right, and, despite reading a few of the more basic books, the logic of the market just stuns me sometimes..

    Would appreciate others opinions..

    Cheers,

    Buster

  6. #6
    Administrator Joe Blow's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    ASF
    Posts
    4,845
    Blog Entries
    4

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Further to my previous remarks... if your post suddenly disappears from this thread please do not repost it, as it was removed for a reason (i.e. it didn't cut the mustard!)

  7. #7
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    I suppose for a start, a decent definition of a breakout is required. One from Stockcharts:

    Breakout: Price of a security emerging from a previous trading pattern. The new price "breaks out" above the high (or below the low) trading pattern lines that enclose all other prices for that security in the preceding period. Breakouts are used by technical analysts to predict substantial upside or downside movement.

    Picking when something is about to breakout is obviously pretty difficult as a stock can sit around a breakout point for some time and then, on a announcement, explode, and it's all over. So, maybe we need to be picking points at which a stock would be declared a breakout also. A usual sign that something is about to break up is increased volume at a time when a stock is trading very close to the edge of a trading range. Something to watch, and should be indicated. This would give a 'potential' breakout candidate more credibility.

    I tend to watch trading ranges and patterns to look for when something might be classified as a breakout, and have posted those comments frequently. Will start doing that here too.

    Would be good to hear what other people look for in a potential breakout.

  8. #8
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by Buster
    Hey Kennas,

    Great idea. I noticed a few posters got lashed for doing this in the 'outstanding alert' thread, so probably apt to start another..

    I'm not a analyst by any strech of the imagination, so please go a little easy..

    I'm assuming here that we can call a 'short' breakout, so I'll tip IAG at the minute as shareholders have just been offered up to approx 1000 shares at $5.50 after a fairly big insto take up somewhere between $5.10 - 5.50. As the SP is sitting around the $6.10 - 6.20 mark I'm expecting many to sell shares (at least a thousand of them) at these prices and pick them back up at the placement price. This seemed to take place in the T3 placement so I'm simply assuming something similar will occur.

    Then again I've been wrong more times than right, and, despite reading a few of the more basic books, the logic of the market just stuns me sometimes..

    Would appreciate others opinions..

    Cheers,

    Buster
    So, are you saying the sp will go back to the $5.10-$5.50 mark?

  9. #9
    Ralph Nelson Elliott Porper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    1,251

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by kennas
    Well, it's been suggested a few times under various headings, but I thought I'd start this to see where it goes.

    All those people who have been watching a stock and can see that it might be about to breakout now have a place to put it. Of course, this can not just be an opportunity to ramp your stock, and I suggest there must be some logic and analysis behind your pick. A chart would almost seem essential.

    Obviously, punters who place a stock on this thread, only to find their stock gets smashed and never actually breaks out is going to come under scrutiny. So, be prepared to be analysed yourself!

    I don't actually have a stock to kick it off, but will do some searching and get back to you.
    Ok, I'll kick us off.

    This could be in the breakout thread really, but as it hasn't surpassed all time highs it should qualify as a potential breakout.

    I've watched TCI for a while now as it has very low volume but can be traded with CFD'S, so it must be a top 300 company.

    I don't hold because the wave count suggests another leg down before rising strongly.

    The perfect type of stock if we could set a guaranteed stop loss, otherwise too risky for me.
    Attached Images
    My posts are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice in any way.

  10. #10
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by kennas
    So, are you saying the sp will go back to the $5.10-$5.50 mark?
    Funny, even if you are, there is a potential breakout there if you ignore the SPP thingy.

    The blue circles indicate where I see the potential breakout. Could have been one just below the $6.00 mark as well, where there was a resistance point and there was massive volume. I don't think this could have been forecast though.

    So, perhaps potential breakout through $6.25.....Looks like it's had a pretty hard run, so maybe your $5.50 is more likely.....interesting.
    Attached Images

  11. #11
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by Porper
    Ok, I'll kick us off.

    This could be in the breakout thread really, but as it hasn't surpassed all time highs it should qualify as a potential breakout.

    I've watched TCI for a while now as it has very low volume but can be traded with CFD'S, so it must be a top 300 company.

    I don't hold because the wave count suggests another leg down before rising strongly.

    The perfect type of stock if we could set a guaranteed stop loss, otherwise too risky for me.
    Yes, has broken out perhaps, maybe at $1.40, but can also make another break through $1.50 perhaps. Had a few very good days. Can it be sustained?
    Attached Images

  12. #12
    Ralph Nelson Elliott Porper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    1,251

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by kennas
    Yes, has broken out perhaps, maybe at $1.40, but can also make another break through $1.50 perhaps. Had a few very good days. Can it be sustained?
    I would say it broke out today as it broke the recent high, which goes back to March, although you are correct, it hasn't closed above 1.50 yet.

    The wave count is good and if all goes to plan this could easily get to new all time highs of 1.75 fairly quickly as there doesn't seem to be many shares around to buy.

    I will be watching and if we get the slight retrace then a move up on good volume I will be in.
    My posts are for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice in any way.

  13. #13

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by kennas
    So, are you saying the sp will go back to the $5.10-$5.50 mark?
    Ahhh.. Yes.. It seems I forgot to mention the important part.. I'm thinking it will dip to the 5.80 - 5.60 mark as they sell out to take advantage of the placement offer..

    Never said I was smart..

    Seems that I have not a clue what a breakout is either, after reviewing Porpers post and the replies.. Sorry, will watch some more before jumping in..

    Cheers,

    Buster

  14. #14
    Administrator Joe Blow's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    ASF
    Posts
    4,845
    Blog Entries
    4

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Just removed a post that didn't quite meet the required standards.

    I'm not quite sure people are understanding the level of analysis posting in this thread requires. One or two sentences about about how a stock is looking good and should perform well in the near term just won't cut it. Please include a chart and back up your point of view with some detailed technical analysis.

    If you can't, then please avoid posting in this thread as your post will more than likely be removed.

  15. #15
    hoarding tinned food kennas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    By the river
    Posts
    13,146
    Blog Entries
    172

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by Buster
    Ahhh.. Yes.. It seems I forgot to mention the important part.. I'm thinking it will dip to the 5.80 - 5.60 mark as they sell out to take advantage of the placement offer..

    Never said I was smart..

    Seems that I have not a clue what a breakout is either, after reviewing Porpers post and the replies.. Sorry, will watch some more before jumping in..

    Cheers,

    Buster
    Buster, I posted this first chart on Telstra on 14 December at a point where I thought it was a 'potential' breakout. Others may claim it's a breakout, but we all have different opinions. The second chart is from this morning to see where it's gone.

    I also posted a chart on 9 Dec identifying this about to occur that you might be interested in. If you look at those charts and compare to today you see where the ‘potential’ is derived from and should give you an idea of some of the things to look for.

    The overall pattern is a large rounded bottom, (possibly forming a cup) starting from about Jul 05. This pattern would sometimes indicate that the stock is going to gently climb up the other side of the cup. Bullish.

    There seems to be a definite bottom to have been found.

    The stock was going down since Jul 05 as can be seen by the lower highs all the way down indicated by the sloping red line. Once the stock broke out of this downward trend and started making higher lows, then this is a sign it is going to or has broke up, or broken out.

    MACD was gently climbing up, and was just about to cross the signal line on 9-14 Dec. Bullish.

    The reason why I didn't think this had officially broken out on 14 Dec is that there is significant resistance at $4.00 which has been a sticking point for the past few months. Until it overcame this point, it would not be a breakout to me. SOme T/As claim that a breakout needs to hold for 3 days for it to be a 'breakout'.

    On the day I posted this it had only JUST held over $4.00. Hardly a OUTSTANDING Breakout. Once it held above this level, then I would have called it a breakout.

    Hope this helps a bit.

    Note:

    TA is only ever probabilities. This pattern could break down at any time at which point you need to re evaluate the position. Sh!t happens.

    I'm definitely no expert on this. Just been picking things up over the past few years. I have no formal education in technical analysis. Happy to be corrected by any more experienced people.

    PS, this will definitely fail now that I have posted this up. LOL
    Attached Images

  16. #16
    Formerly known as 'Tekmann' SevenFX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Sunny Melbourne
    Posts
    1,202

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe Blow
    Just removed a post that didn't quite meet the required standards.

    I'm not quite sure people are understanding the level of analysis posting in this thread requires. One or two sentences about about how a stock is looking good and should perform well in the near term just won't cut it. Please include a chart and back up your point of view with some detailed technical analysis.

    If you can't, then please avoid posting in this thread as your post will more than likely be removed.
    Hi Joe,

    Rather than removing them ertirely, leaving no trace for other Newcomers to learn from, may I suggest removing the content, and replace it with something like

    "Post Content Removed, Not Substaniated By Indications on Chart or Detailed Technical Analysis"

    Maybe this could be a rubber stamp somewhere for mods to cut n paste....and newcomers could get the mininum requirement quicker.

    This could also apply to the "Outstanding Breakouts" thread to keep that tidy 2.

    The only downside is not as many will take the time to insert a chart, but the one(s) that do will be Quality Posts, and hopefully others will follow.

    Cheers
    SevenFX
    Last edited by SevenFX; 20th-December-2006 at 10:10 AM.

  17. #17

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Sorry, i'll have another go at this. I honestly wasn't trying to ramp esg. I'll be the first to admit i don't have the same high ta knowledge as someone like kennas but i'm not a ramper. Esg are in a steady uptrend, have been consolidating for the past few days and to me looks like it could break out of a symmetrical triangle. I've attached a chart for those interested (well tried too but it was too large). Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thankyou

  18. #18
    Formerly known as 'Tekmann' SevenFX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Sunny Melbourne
    Posts
    1,202

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by roxy
    Sorry, i'll have another go at this. I honestly wasn't trying to ramp esg. I'll be the first to admit i don't have the same high ta knowledge as someone like kennas but i'm not a ramper.

    I've attached a chart for those interested (well tried too but it was too large). Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thankyou

    Hi & Welcome to ASF Roxy,

    I agree it's knowledge and experience that gives you confidence to post charts examples of a potential breakout, and that comes with time reading and asking questions on ASF.

    Depending on what application your charting with will depend on how to reduce the chart size.

    You could PM me, or enter the chat part of asf (top right) and I could try to help... let me know if you need some help.... so we keep this thread on track.

    Cheers
    SevenFX

  19. #19

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Ok i've tried to attach a chart of esg so hope it works ok. Looks to be forming an ascending triangle, any thoughts would be very much appreciated. Thanks
    Attached Images

  20. #20
    Administrator Joe Blow's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    ASF
    Posts
    4,845
    Blog Entries
    4

    Default Re: POTENTIAL BREAKOUT Alerts

    Quote Originally Posted by SevenFX
    Hi Joe,

    Rather than removing them ertirely, leaving no trace for other Newcomers to learn from, may I suggest removing the content, and replace it with something like

    "Post Content Removed, Not Substaniated By Indications on Chart or Detailed Technical Analysis"

    Maybe this could be a rubber stamp somewhere for mods to cut n paste....and newcomers could get the mininum requirement quicker.

    This could also apply to the "Outstanding Breakouts" thread to keep that tidy 2.

    The only downside is not as many will take the time to insert a chart, but the one(s) that do will be Quality Posts, and hopefully others will follow.

    Cheers
    SevenFX
    Hi SevenFX

    I will leave posts in the thread as long as there is a real attempt at some kind of analysis. Otherwise I think it is best to remove them.

    I have suspected from the outset that this thread would end up become a haven for ramping and I'm still not convinced that it wont. So to get things going on the right foot, I think its important to encourage a certain level of content to set some kind of standard.

    I am happy for this thread to stay if it proves useful but what I think its important for everyone to understand is that in order for their post to be useful to others they have to try and explain why they think the stock is going to break out. So to achieve that there is going to have to be a certain amount of technical analysis involved. Perhaps those who aren't familiar with t/a should watch from the sidelines until they feel comfortable enough to attempt their own analysis?



Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 258
    Last Post: 8th-May-2016, 01:53 PM
  2. Outstanding Breakout Alerts!
    By tech/a in forum ASX Stock Chat
    Replies: 2387
    Last Post: 29th-December-2015, 09:29 PM
  3. Potential Breakdown Alerts
    By chops_a_must in forum ASX Stock Chat
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 10th-March-2008, 07:18 PM
  4. ASX 200 breakout alerts
    By legs in forum ASX Stock Chat
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 4th-July-2007, 01:46 PM
  5. Overseas Stocks - BREAKOUT Alerts!!
    By excalibur in forum International Markets
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 1st-August-2005, 12:48 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Aussie Stock Forums