CAB - Cabcharge Australia

[Kauri]

CAB with GP's AIM dll for AB

[RichKid]

Hi Kauri

Interesting chart, looking at recent price and volume this one looks like it's being sold off by big sellers, but it still has some momentum left. Note the selling spikes and high volume. Those retracements you show look very probably now, perhaps the gap wont be filled completely...will be best for the bulls if the higher of those lower major trendlines holds.

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri

Interesting chart, looking at recent price and volume this one looks like it's being sold off by big sellers, but it still has some momentum left. Note the selling spikes and high volume. Those retracements you show look very probably now, perhaps the gap wont be filled completely...will be best for the bulls if the higher of those lower major trendlines holds.

Hi GP..
Yes, the vol seems to be telling a story. Have set a stop for all of remaining holding at $8.17, either the market will take me out or not. Will watch for possible re-entries around the T/L's if it happens.
Cheers
Kauri

[Kauri]

Cab just keeps boxing on....

[Bluebeard]

Anyone still following cabcharge (cab). I like the business model, looked at the website, seems like they have plans for outside Australia. Whats people opinions on this stock going forward. The only thing for me that is holding me back is the pe.

[dj_420]

I took position today, will post up a chart later, I like them for a good long term play, good write up in Smart Investor this month also. They have been sold off very heavily after sub-prime meltdown and as yet have not recovered.

Lately I have been investing in that Buffet style, buy a good company when chips are down or sentiment is negative, and wait for it to turn.

[jkool]

Cabcharge Australia is pretty impressive business indeed. They have been constantly returning over 20%pa on their equity, hold close to monopoly on taxi and public transport fare charging systems and do not have much debt to speak off (ie. could perhaps cover all their debt with one years' profits or thereabouts).

Its a strong looking dominant player in its industry with only one major problem from where i stand: for me its share price is still quite high to jump in.

As always once again I looked at their last year financial results in more detail here http://www.soundofgold.com/2007/12/0...ults-analysis/ so have a read if interested.

Cheers

jkool

[jersey10]

whats going on today? down 5% have traded this support and resistance channel over the last few weeks and today a drop of 5%? any info?

J10

[oldblue]

Looks like a normal day's trading to me in this bear market.
CAB SP still above its 12 month low, although admittedly fairly close to it, volumes not abnormal, P/E still above 20 so by no means a steal.
Plenty of good stocks being treated like this at present.

[prawn_86]

Dropped 13% on Friday when news was released that the ACCC is pursuing them in court over use of their (near) monopoly powers.

Court cases are never good for a company, and tend to drag on, so further price weakness may occur as things play out

[ROE]

Dropped 13% on Friday when news was released that the ACCC is pursuing them in court over use of their (near) monopoly powers.

Court cases are never good for a company, and tend to drag on, so further price weakness may occur as things play out

Please Mr Market punish this baby and make it go lower
This is a bad boy abusing its monopoly power, and doesn't every monopoly or market power abuse their powerful status any how?

hello Woolworths, Telstra and I already know the outcome

The thought of $100 Million penalty scare most people maybe they cut and run next week
I bet if cabcharge spend $100 Mil fighting the battle with ACCC, ACCC may run out of money well before then :-)

and now ACCC is busy with this case maybe time for Woolworths and Telstra to start abusing their power again :-)

[prawn_86]

Yeh i just caught the knife at $5.12. Watching very closely, but seems to be an over-reaction from the market. (Hopefully )

[So_Cynical]

Yeh i just caught the knife at $5.12. Watching very closely, but seems to be an over-reaction from the market. (Hopefully )

Wow got as low as 4.71...still nice catching Prawn, its hard to know how low to go
sometimes im sure u will do well outa this, as ive been cleaning up lately
buying similar, over sold stocks....im gona lowball something tomorrow.

[prawn_86]

Wow got as low as 4.71...

Yeh i woulda loved to get it under $5, but it was bought up quickly, i wasnt paying full attention, and my broker webpage had some problems

Oh well, im happy with it at the level i got it

[skc]

Yeh i just caught the knife at $5.12. Watching very closely, but seems to be an over-reaction from the market. (Hopefully )

Brave move. Is this a punt or calculated move?

To fully understand the impact of the court case, I would have done the following:

- Look at the market cap prior to the news
- Look at the potential max fine
- Look at the potential impact on future earnings
- Apply some discount factor on the chance that ACCC doesn't win
- Apply some factor on the way market will dis-like the stock for sometime until this is cleared up

And if there is still lots of margin of safety compare to the current price, then it would have been a good punt. Personally I didn't think the upside was there. It has only dropped 20%...

A great over-reaction story comes to mind was a HK company called Mengniu (HKSE 2315). It is a milk producer and when it was revealed it had products containing melamine, the share price plunged.... 70%. The SP has pretty much all recovered now in 6 months.

[prawn_86]

They have been on my watchlist recently SKC, so i have been wanting to pick them up.

They are in a near monopoly position and managed to increase their EPS during the last year, while other firms were decimated. Payout ration of circa 60%, if this is maintained (and i see no reason why not) or even cut slightly (to fund court costs) it is yielding >5% pa on my purchase price. Plus the management seems fairly on the ball.

So not a punt, but one to watch closely. However im trying to accumulate solid business that have been oversold, same as i have done this year with AMP and FLT.

EDIT - And personally i think the ACCC is a toothless tiger that has never done anything except slap people on the wrist occasionally.

[skc]

They have been on my watchlist recently SKC, so i have been wanting to pick them up.

They are in a near monopoly position and managed to increase their EPS during the last year, while other firms were decimated. Payout ration of circa 60%, if this is maintained (and i see no reason why not) or even cut slightly (to fund court costs) it is yielding >5% pa on my purchase price. Plus the management seems fairly on the ball.

So not a punt, but one to watch closely. However im trying to accumulate solid business that have been oversold, same as i have done this year with AMP and FLT.

EDIT - And personally i think the ACCC is a toothless tiger that has never done anything except slap people on the wrist occasionally.

It has been on my watch list as well as the chart was developing into a good ABC retracement. But the news send it straight through the zone so no trigger was pulled.

The candle yesterday doesn't look half bad with good close and high volume.

Good luck with the trade.

[prawn_86]

Well over the last couple weeks Lazard has slowly being upping their stake, now stands at about 8.4% up from around 6% when they started buying.

You can see them coming in everytime the price drops down around the $5.15 area.

Makes me feel more comfortable with my purchase. Hopefully CAB can maintain their div amount from last year whcich would get me about 4% for each div (8% for the year)

[ROE]

when you are in for a long time, a drop of 10%-15%
make no differences after you purchase the stock.

the trouble is everyone have the hind insight to say you should wait, but no one can time the market with any degree of accuracy...it 50-50 hit and miss....as long as it meet your value and criteria then it's a good time to buy..

[prawn_86]

Results out today.

EPS of 51c, up slightly. Dividend maintained at 17c, for a total dividend of 34c for the year.

All looking good to me...