SDL - Sundance Resources

[Jewels]

Hi Muffin Man,
Well the latest 3B really has me worried. UBS are out now, so I'm fully expecting Hanlong to post a notice saying that they can't get the finance. Looks like the Hanlong Bid is doomed. Why else would UBS be selling out 2 weeks before the announcement from the NDRC?
We know that Sundance leaks like Brendon Fevola, after a binge.
Maybe a buying opportunity is about to present itself, sub 20 cents maybe?
Any thoughts anyone?

[prawn_86]

One of the former Hanlong execs has just pleased guilty to insider trading of SDL, amongst other stocks... PErhaps it was just a pump and dump after all?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-3...rading/4166594

[FreshTrader]

What are we thinking SDL is going to announce on Aug 9th?

[CarbonSteel]

Why are we talking about the "acquisition price"? I thought it was already set at 57 measley cents.

[Jewels]

It would appear the Gig is up. With Hanlong holding a blocking stake, no other bid is likely to succeed. At the last AGM George stated that the Cameroon Government was "very comfortable" dealing with China. I imagine quite a few palms have been greased since.I have been told that major shareholders have been approached already to find out what price they would be prepared to vote yes too, and we had Paul DiNardi at the last AGM state that the board had already noticed a re weighting of the share register towards hedge funds looking to cash in on the takeover.
The one and only question that we need to know the answer to is what is the likely hood that the Government of Cameroon will not issue the permits to Sundance if the Hanlong bid is not successful? Going on Georges' comment at the last AGM I'd say highly likely!
So it would appear that we have been out smarted at every turn, and that ever since the 19th of June 2010, the Chinese have had an in fallible game plan.
Makes you wonder if the plane crash was really an accident, doesn't it?

[CarbonSteel]

It would appear the Gig is up. With Hanlong holding a blocking stake, no other bid is likely to succeed. At the last AGM George stated that the Cameroon Government was "very comfortable" dealing with China. I imagine quite a few palms have been greased since.I have been told that major shareholders have been approached already to find out what price they would be prepared to vote yes too, and we had Paul DiNardi at the last AGM state that the board had already noticed a re weighting of the share register towards hedge funds looking to cash in on the takeover.
The one and only question that we need to know the answer to is what is the likely hood that the Government of Cameroon will not issue the permits to Sundance if the Hanlong bid is not successful? Going on Georges' comment at the last AGM I'd say highly likely!
So it would appear that we have been out smarted at every turn, and that ever since the 19th of June 2010, the Chinese have had an in fallible game plan.
Makes you wonder if the plane crash was really an accident, doesn't it?

Yes indeedy, these directors must now hang their heads in shame.
SKY BUSINESS NEWS REPORTED TONIGHT (07/08/12) THAT HANLONG HAS NOW REDUCED ITS OFFER TO $0.40! To think of the money these directors have stolen from investors through cheap options makes me sick and disgusted. Just go away guys. Hope your respective reputations and careers have died along with the forlorn hope of those you duped.

[Jewels]

I have had enough of Hanlong now, and frankly if they returned to their original 57c offer I would now vote NO! I simply do not want to be involved with a company that has such a dishonorable ethos. Remembering that the opportunistic Hanlong purchased the Talbot stake (some 16 odd %) I believe with borrowed funds that will need to be paid back, so for Hanlong, this takeover being rejected will be just as painful.

Is a plan B in place? Well only the board know that for sure:

If it were me, this is how I would proceed.
This project is simply to important to the government and the people of Cameroon to let it wallow in the squalor of sino-anglo relationships.
What most people have to come to grips with is that this is not a mining project. It is infact an infrastructure project. There are many mines in the area that require the infrastructure to be in place, before one sod of dirt can be turned over.
So the infra structure that needs to be in place is the rail and the port. I'd set up a company with a non discretionary trustee. This company would be equally funded by say five of the major miners in the area, Sundance, Core etc, a float on the London exchange should then provide additional funds to get this project up and running. I'm envisaging a BOOT operation, where as after 25 years the infrastructure is then returned to the Government of Cameroon, where it can either run the whole project, lease it back to the entity on a right of first refusal, or on lease to somebody else. Obviously the original mining companies who stumped up the cash would have very beneficial cartage contracts.
Once this occurs the Cappex for all the mining projects in the are is reduced considerably.
This would allow Mbalam and Nabeeba to effectively be funded on a good off take agreement, maybe a Posco or a Tata may be interested.
The pay back to the infrastructure company would come by charging a fee per tonne, say $10.00 per tonne on a hundred million tonnes P.A. A billion dollar a year cash flow for 25 years?
This would also lead to a more stable Iron ore province. At the moment the first mover advantage is simply too great. By the time you are receiving your first cash flows, other "juniors" will be needing to negotiate rail agreements, the place would become the world headquarters for legal firms specializing in M&A's!
So If I was on the board I'd be showing Hanlong the bird, and putting plan B in action.
I understand the short term pain, but I have held this stock too long, believing that it is a game changer for Cameroon, to see it Bastardized by Hanlong.
Now this is just my point of view, my plan B;
So what are your thoughts?
I'm just tired of all the speculation and rehashed media being "leaked" by whoever, thought I'd try and get a constructive thought process goig.
Ciao

[FreshTrader]

I just want out. When will the circus end?

[CarbonSteel]

Agree 100% Jewels. There is nothing to add except possibly making it company policy TO NOT DEAL WITH DISHONOURABLE CHINESE.
Can only hope plan B is effected and that the Hang-on longtime grubs are out of pocket with nothing to show for it but debt. The bigger the better.

[Joules MM1]

...making it company policy TO NOT DEAL WITH DISHONOURABLE CHINESE.....

not deal with before theyre dishonourable or after theyre dishonourable? cos if it's before, well, you know what youre saying, don't you......and if it's afterward, well, a wasted excercise.....

your comment.....it's tad off key, dont ya think?

[CarbonSteel]

not deal with before theyre dishonourable or after theyre dishonourable? cos if it's before, well, you know what youre saying, don't you......and if it's afterward, well, a wasted excercise.....

your comment.....it's tad off key, dont ya think?

Thanks mate. That's what we need right now, personal attacks. Try to concentrate on some input instead. We all need commiseration right now, not this rubbish

[CarbonSteel]

And still we have a bunch of "directors" who found it impossible to nail down a date in December. Unbelievable. Good luck with your next job application. For SDL it's been "fail" & then "fail and then "fail" again.
Totally destroyed the spirit of those who gave their lives.
VOTE NO TO THIS DEAL. REPLACE THE ENTIRE "BOARD".
What a bunch of losers.

[Crom]

As a holder I understand your frutration Carbon but don't know what else they could do.

They have said they can't develop the project by themselves and need either a partner or takeover.

SDL now have a floor price with penalties if broken. Exclusivity with Hanlong is now off so SDL is free to seek other bidders.

Quite frankly though Carbon, if there are no other bidders then this project is a dead duck without Hanlong. Meaning SDL could not walk away from the table without a deal. Yes it's dissapointing but that was the reality for SDL.

I would like to think that given the quality and size of the resource, and that many of the approvals with involved Gov'ts have and are being gainned, that SDL must be looking very attractive to some of the big players.

In fact I find it very interesting that BHP in particular have put a hold on Olympic dam and sold uranium assts, freeing up capital. Very interesting indeed!

CROM

[prawn_86]

In fact I find it very interesting that BHP in particular have put a hold on Olympic dam and sold uranium assts, freeing up capital. Very interesting indeed!

CROM

If you are trying to imply that BHP would look at a project like this then you are way off the mark imo. BHP have heaps of better IO assets, more developed, in countries that carry a lot less sovereign risk.

SDL has always been a problem stock due to its project location and the fact that it needs such a big CAPEX to get the project off the ground.

All imo

[CarbonSteel]

As a holder I understand your frutration Carbon but don't know what else they could do.

They have said they can't develop the project by themselves and need either a partner or takeover.

SDL now have a floor price with penalties if broken. Exclusivity with Hanlong is now off so SDL is free to seek other bidders.

Quite frankly though Carbon, if there are no other bidders then this project is a dead duck without Hanlong. Meaning SDL could not walk away from the table without a deal. Yes it's dissapointing but that was the reality for SDL.

I would like to think that given the quality and size of the resource, and that many of the approvals with involved Gov'ts have and are being gainned, that SDL must be looking very attractive to some of the big players.

In fact I find it very interesting that BHP in particular have put a hold on Olympic dam and sold uranium assts, freeing up capital. Very interesting indeed!

CROM

I think that these "directors" have taken their nice cheap options, made thousands, if not millions and never had any intention of trying to find financiers for this project. $4.3b is not a lot in the scheme of things and the projected returns even on today's IO price are nothing short of astronomical. Of course, to just sacrifice the SH's and sell the company to Chinese grubs is easy and profitable FOR THE DIRECTORS only. Do you think it is impossible to finance & mine this project as SDL?
I do not agree that these directors have "done their best" for their shareholders. Rather, they don't like working for their money.
I really feel that effort seeking finance for the project would have been a better option & I have said that from the getgo.
Too lazy for the harder option. To easy to make money from "performance" options. I will never again invest in any company in which these individuals are involved. Casello was sold as having a lot of experience in dealing with Chinese grubs. They have made him look like a rank amateur.

[prawn_86]

Do you think it is impossible to finance & mine this project as SDL?

Yes.

SDL have no history and the management do not have the credentials to pull of a project of this scale. All in an environment where companies are focusing on reducing CAPEX and it is getting harder to obtain financing. It is impossible for SDL to get a loan of this size or investment to raise anywhere near $4b.

Even co's like BHP are divesting assets and putting off high CAPEX projects as they do not think it is worthwhile developing certain things in the near term.

Even if this project were in Aus I highly doubt they would be able to get the required funding, let alone with the added sovereign risk their project carries. It's just too high a risk for any lenders

[notting]

BHP have heaps of better IO assets, more developed, in countries that carry a lot less sovereign risk.
SDL has always been a problem stock due to its project location and the fact that it needs such a big CAPEX to get the project off the ground.

BHP or one of the other two big ones woud be interested in the sense that it will be quite a low cost producer and is a large find, not something they would want to compete against. Like Gina pointed out $2 a day for labor is hard to beat with a high au $. and au labor costs.
How much more the shipping adds to it is significant I believe though the new supertankers may help with that.
The problem is the 20% holding that Hanlog managed to extract out of the family before letting the world know of it's intentions. That's big enough to block other take overs, I am told.
Even putting another bid on the table would make it harder however.
They should.
What you may see is the Chinese fake a walk away, then come back with an agressive offer to share holders at about 30c after the price tanks to about 12c and people have stopped even thinking about it.
That's what they did with RCI, check out how all that went down. After the Chinese bid off an alternate bidder. I suggested this would happen at the start of all this action when the offer first came through, so far it has apart from the fact that this board accepted the bid where as RCI rejected the return aggressive bid that was pitched directly to beaten up shareholders.


Those that held all the way through the RCI rubbish, ended up getting their bacon! 45c is probably as good as it will get unless one of the others comes in to make it harder, they should, but let's face it they haven't taken out WPL and that should of been done.

Iron ore at $100 takes out about 20 to 30% of producers around the world including the Chinese! The Chinese are deliberatly downing the price but using up existing stock piles (the consume %60 or the worlds Iron Ore.) It's not nearly as bad as people are thinking. This is how they try to run the world and at the moment have a bit of an effect just look at what they did with rare earths and are still getting away with it.
Let's hope they don't get too much more!

[prawn_86]

Hanlong deadline extended to Jan 11th. This one is certainly dragging out for holders...

[notting]

Just up to the share holders now!!

[Jewels]

Hi Westcott,
Could you please email me at [email protected].
I am looking at taking legal action to prevent the scheme vote occurring before the granting of the permits/mining convention.
Would like to gauge the level of support.
Thanks Jewels