SDL - Sundance Resources

[mr. jeff]

Interesting activities with this stock today. There was some high volume spikes going through around lunch time.
Buying.
Then later in the afternoon Bloomberg breaks this global story about how SDL is trading at less than half the offer price and how the premium is the biggest since god knows when and pumping up the tyres like you wouldn't believe.

Hmmm. Market manipulation whilst everyone is drunk and on holiday hoping everyone will come rushing in on wednesday moring whilst they sell into it!?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...-real-m-a.html

Bloomberg has been running this kind of thing on SDL for more than 2 months intermittently so at least they are consistent.
It is a great deal, buying with the promise of the returns to come.

But obviously a lot of smart people think the deal won't go through. A lack of information doesn't help the situation but so far so good ( no news being good news with SDL is how they play it...)

Good luck.

[LRG]

Update, March 20, 2012, SDL is still dead in the water and going no where fast.

[CarbonSteel]

Update, March 20, 2012, SDL is still dead in the water and going no where fast.

Is it all on track for settlement in May?
Will there be a last minute mystery buyer?
Have they settled all conditions imposed by Cameroon govt?
Has Cameroon govt completed all that it necessarily must complete?
Quarterly report will hopefully have all this info but it's 6 weeks away.

[CarbonSteel]

Update, March 20, 2012, SDL is still dead in the water and going no where fast.

I note that the presentation released yesterday says that Hanlongs takeover will occur "later in the year". Does that mean a May settlement is no longer a possibility?

[Jewels]

I note that the presentation released yesterday says that Hanlongs takeover will occur "later in the year". Does that mean a May settlement is no longer a possibility?

With the addition of a new government committee to deal with I would be surprised if the Mbalam convention goes through according to the original timeline. That will necessitate an extension to the take over date.
There are a lot of rumors flying around about an unsolicited take over, however I keep harking back to a comment that GJ made at the last AGM, and that was that the "Cameroonian Government is very comfortable dealing with the Chinese." To me this would almost preclude an offer from any of the big 3.
In the absence of a better offer, the instos and hedge funds will accept .57 for sure, even though it would be bargain basement pricing. As much as I would love to vote no, what would happen to SDL if the Hanlong offer is rejected? Another offer from another Chinese investment bank at a lower price? Interesting to see how this plays out. Ciao

[FreshTrader]

Slump of 2.22% today, what is going on with SDL? No news... I hate being left in the dark, although it seems SDL is not very interested in keeping its shareholders up to date with current details in relation to takeover bid

[skc]

Slump of 2.22% today, what is going on with SDL? No news... I hate being left in the dark, although it seems SDL is not very interested in keeping its shareholders up to date with current details in relation to takeover bid

That is about the best performing iron ore stock.

FMG -5.1%
AGO -5.3%
MGX -6.9%
GBG -5.3%
GRR - 3.3%

Pretty good day for SDL I'd say.

[CarbonSteel]

Well that's bloody beautiful isn't it?
We get to wait another 6 months for the same price.
The Chinese have all the power in this deal & $1.6b interest free for 6 months.
I still do not think the directors have the interests of the SH's at heart
& they have also not spruiked it to the right people. My opinion.... Trash the deal & wait. We're going to wait anyway. Tell Hang-on longtime it might be there in November but if you want to guarantee it, up your offer to reflect the interest component.
Just a thought.

[Jewels]

It will be very interesting to see what the independant experts report values Sundance at. I cant help but feel that towards the end of the report the words "in the absence of a higher offer" will somehow be used to justify the 57 cent offer.
Now whilst I never believed that we would be seeing our money in May I was a bit shocked that it (the SIA) has been put back six months. We keep on drilling however, keep increasing the JORC, keep making it worth more and more, but not for the current shareholders benefit, for the future shareholders benefit.
I know the game was over when we lost the board in the plane crash, but please stop prolonging the agony for the long term shareholders

[FreshTrader]

Revised scheme - implementation date: November 16

Does this mean that's the day they intend for shareholders to get their payout, or is there more waiting after that??

Cheers.

[CarbonSteel]

Another good thing for Hangon longtime is that they get to pick off SH's at $0.41 or so, which is obviously a bargain if they already agreed to $0.57.
Shame on these "directors". They won't be getting a "well done" from me. I note their names & will never invest if they are involved.
Maybe what they are doing is legal, but they fall way short when it comes to being smart.
We live & learn.

[golfmos123]

Surprised to see no-one has commented yet on today's happenings.........

What do people think of the funds raising exercise conducted at 34.5c (significantly below market price of 40c when it was done)???

* board being prudent in raising funds just in case Hanlong has further delays?
* board worried about T/O not going through any more?

It does provoke some thought, that's for sure. Other thoughts anyone??

[pixel]

Surprised to see no-one has commented yet on today's happenings.........
Other thoughts anyone??

What if some (or most) of the "sophisticated investors" were close to certain decision makers...
Could that speed up the processing of some necessary permits?

just a cynical thought...

in any case: my chart suggests to stay away for now.

SDL 13-06-12.gif

[Jewels]

RIP directors of Sundance.
It is a shame that the current board are not capable of seeing your dream come to fruition.
You will not be forgotten by longterm shareholders who shared the dream with you.
You are all greatly missed.

[Jewels]

For those who are interested:

ShareThis

CHICAGO (CN) - A plane crash that killed 11 people in the Republic of Congo, including six Australian mining executives, was caused by the plane's defective Garmin GPS unit, 25 relatives of the victims claim in Federal Court.
Hong Cassley and 24 co-plaintiffs sued Garmin International, Sundance Resources, Cam Iron, Aero Service SARL, and Raymond Griesbaum, for the June 19, 2010 crash.
The plaintiffs, citizens of China, the United Kingdom and Australia, sued individually and as representatives of their late relatives' estate.
"On June 19, 2010, plaintiffs' decedents were passengers onboard a Casa 212 aircraft performing a charter flight from Yaoundé, Cameroon to Yangadou, Republic of Congo," the complaint states.
"On a date prior to June 19, 2010, defendant Garmin designed, manufactured, assembled, and sold the Map 496 Global Positioning System unit installed onboard the accident aircraft.
"At the time the GPS unit left the custody and control of defendant Garmin, it was defective and unreasonably dangerous in one or more of the following respects, among other defects:
"a. The GPS unit installed on the accident aircraft failed to provide relevant and/or accurate information regarding the aircraft's position,
"b. The terrain avoidance functionality of the GPS unit failed to provide timely alerts of approaching and hazardous terrain, and
"c. The GPS unit did not contain any warning of these or other defects.
"As the direct and proximate result of one or more of the aforesaid defective and unreasonably dangerous conditions, the accident aircraft failed to avoid mountainous terrain while in flight and violently crashed into the ground near Avima, Republic of Congo.
"As the direct and proximate result of the aforesaid crash, plaintiffs' decedents were killed."
The English newspaper The Telegraph reported that 11 people were onboard the plane, including the director of Sundance Resources, Ken Talbot, one of Australia's richest men. Talbot's relatives are not a party to this case.
The plane was chartered by Sundance to take members of its board of directors on a tour of the Mbalam iron ore fields owned by Cam Iron in northwest Congo-Brazzaville, which are worth billions of dollars, according to The Telegraph.
Cassley says his relative, James Cassley, worked for GMP Securities Europe and "was required to travel to specific locations at specific times, and in the manner determined by defendants Sundance and Cam Iron."
"At all times relevant hereto, Defendants Sundance and Cam Iron owed plaintiffs and plaintiffs' decedents a duty to use reasonable care in selecting a charter flight operator so as to not cause injury to, or the deaths of, plaintiffs' decedents," Cassley says.
"Plaintiffs and the other heirs and next of kin of their respective decedents have suffered a loss of support, loss of net accumulations, loss of household and other services, loss of care, comfort, companionship, guidance and society and mental anguish, sorrow and grief as the result of the deaths of plaintiffs' decedents," the complaint states.
The plaintiffs demand damages for negligence and seven other counts which are not precisely explicated in the complaint.
They are represented by Floyd Wisner.

From Court House News.
Ciao

[CarbonSteel]

Thankfully the problem now belongs (or soon will belong) to Hangon longtime. Good luck to the families when they sue a Chinese company. Would they have been better off NOT destroying the share value for themselves & us and waiting till Hangon longtime owns the company outright? The end result won't be any different. I fully support the view that the original boards' deaths have shown the new board to be relatively inept. No, The new board cannot begin to claim that they are a legitimate replacement for those great men

[Jewels]

Can anybody post the report by Macquarrie private wealth that states that I.O. infrastructure projects in West Africa to be the biggest loosers in the current capital squeeze?
Thanks Jewels

[Jewels]

The following is a possible reason for the slump in SDL's share price recently.
Article from MiningNews.net, you can get a free trial subscription at the moment.

West African iron ore at back of queue

Wednesday, 4 July 2012
Kristie Batten

MACQUARIE Private Wealth believes the fledgling west African iron ore industry will be most at risk as companies pull back capital expenditure.

Simandou. Courtesy of Rio Tinto

Markets remain volatile and majors including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have expressed concerns over high costs.

Macquarie said pressure on producers to pullback capital expenditure was highly typical in the third year of a cycle where cashflows were strong.

“This, coupled with a pullback in near-term commodity prices, has made higher capex allocation extremely difficult to justify,” analysts said.

“While the high output base and depletion of existing assets means capex is set to remain above trend, and projects are likely to be phased or deferred rather than cancelled, some it seems inevitable that certain areas will feel the pressure, particularly in regions with little in the way of existing assets,” Macquarie said.

West Africa – in particular its iron ore industry – is one area expected to suffer.

“Iron ore has always been a market where future price expectations are lower than the current prices, the result of which has been insufficient international market supply growth and poor project execution over recent years,” Macquarie said.

“Furthermore, with new projects generally lower in-situ grades and in more remote areas, they are also extremely capital hungry.”

There are known iron ore deposits in Guinea, Liberia, Mauritania and Sierra Leone.

“These are the projects we use to set our long run incentive price, and not only is infrastructure a major challenge, this is also overlaid with greater geopolitical risk,” Macquarie said.

“With doubts remaining about future Chinese growth rates, we believe further delays to project approval are likely.”

Macquarie believes the approval last week of an environmental license for Vale’s 90 million tonne per annum S11D project in Brazil – the largest project in the company’s history – will see the Brazilian mining giant focusing its capital there rather than on its Simandou project in Guinea.

And while Rio Tinto last month announced a $US1 billion ($A971 million) investment for further infrastructure at its own Simandou project next door, Macquarie believes its ambitious Pilbara iron ore expansion will take precedent.

“Meanwhile, many other projects are not yet fully committed such that further delays to execution are likely,” Macquarie said.

“The same issue has been seen for Australia’s Mid West region over that past decade, with many projects on the table in 2006 having essentially not progressed since this point.”
Macquarie doesn’t expect any slowdown in copper capital expenditure, but zinc and greenfields nickel developments were also expected to be in the firing line.

“The well-known issue for zinc is that some of the largest global mines – Century in Australia, Brunswick in Canada and Lisheen in Ireland – are coming to the end of life while others are depleting,” Macquarie said.

“With the zinc market looking markedly oversupplied in 2012, and the ongoing strength of Chinese mine output taking the market by surprise, there is certainly a risk that spend could be deferred.”

Similarly, Macquarie said nickel was in ample supply this year.

“Furthermore, many new greenfield projects are currently in ramp-up phase,” analysts said.

“These projects can be characterised by dramatic capital overspend and extremely late delivery, while the technical risk associated with nickel projects drives even greater uncertainty.”

Macquarie said that companies were unlikely to fast-track nickel developments and many would be placed in the too-hard basket.

Other areas likely to suffer would be the Australian thermal coal market, due to price falls and capital intensive projects, and China’s Xinjiang province, as coal and aluminium markets remain weak and China slows its infrastructure spend in the remote region.

[Iggy_Pop]

8% drop today, not looking good. Will the take over happen? At this point I will hold on to the NDRC provisional approval at the end of July. Time for the brave

[The Muffin Man]

Jewels, it's a good article that one. SDL has been a victim of circumstance. First there was the fact the company went looking for funds and partners around the GFC 1 stage, then there was the plane crash, now the company / Hanlong is still looking for funds in this current climate of tight lending. I sold out of SDL a few months ago and moved the funds elsewhere, to IO entities that aren't going to struggle with financing. A quite risky hold at the moment, the upcoming NDRC decision is huge.