I am planning on playing the ASX sharemarket game when it starts after the current one and have a couple of questions about it.
There are 100 stocks in the game that you are allowed to trade using a hypothetical $50000 and you are forced to diversify by having no more than 25% of your capital in one stock.
According to the games data, the top 4 stocks for the period are:
Stock...Day 1...Now.....Change since start
I calculated that if you bought these 4 shares at the start of the game with 25% of $50000 each, today you would have, minus $150 brokerage - $83696
The current winner "Optimum Portfolio" has $83,752.26 today so it is obvious that he picked these 4 stocks at the start of the game and has done nothing since. Its the same with the other leaders.
2. no_idea QLD $83,116.01
3. ian dickason VIC $82,256.35
4. milkbottle NSW $82,235.45
5. The Astute Investor NSW $82,002.92
I figured that out of the 20000 players in this game, it is likely that 4 or 5 of them would pick these 4 stocks at the start so that the winners just got lucky and there is no skill to trading this game. Out of the 100 stocks that are used, only 12 of them have went down in price so any players with less than $50000 are just unlucky.
Do you think the winners of this game chose these 4 stocks by luck or was there analysis involved? Surely you couldn't pick all 4 out of 100 by anything other than blind luck so my odds of winning the next game are 4 out of 100 just like the 20000 other players.
Thanks for any thoughts on this.