Please make sure posts are on topic and not low content. Any further low content or non sensical posts will be removed
AUD/USD gone through parity for first time this year. RBA likley to cut further.
China tentative to stimulate for fear of bubbles, overheating property market. Euro situation/political instability undermining confidence in global risk assets. Commodity prices falling.
Not a great backdrop for AUD. How much lower is it going to go? Thoughts? Downside targets?
I think AUD still has a way to fall, just wait for unemployment to reach a critical mass. . Australia was protected with the mining boom and FOB grants, not any more.
I agree -
The Gov no longer has the capacity to throw away enormous amounts of money on Ridiculous stimulatory projects - they are razor axing soooo much stuff at all levels of Government, the writing is on the wall -
Then time will roll by and eventually they will inflate the world economy again , probably even over inflate - and so the cycle may very well repeat .....
May Peace Be With You
I havent been at work for a few months so missing my usual analysis, but if we are finally entering a recession in Aus, then interest rates will keep heading down, meaning the AUD yield is no longer as attractive which will also continue to put pressure on the AUD
AUD Monthly and Weekly cycles
The rot in the Aussie dollar started as price hit the April 50% level and then the cut in
interest rates on the 1st of MAY leading to a break of support (2nd Quarter 50% level)
Trend bias is down in the Quarterly levels around the mid .94's, as part of the
break and extend pattern from the MAY lows into the June lows.
However, there is 1 week to go in MAY, and often price can rotate upwards into
the following monthly 50% level...
and then once again rejected down into the June lows, completing the break
and extend pattern :- SUPPORT
The Weekly level @ .9818 will define whether the last week of the month
continues down or rotates upwards into the June 50% level.
Double top forming on the hourly chart?
With better than expected GDP figures yesterday gave the AUD a real boost, but personally i cant see it being above parity before the Greek elections. A short here with a stop just above parity probably wouldn't be a bad trade...
a lot of short covering overnight...
resistance around 1.0235 and 1.0247... QE rhetoric fueled break could take us to 1.037..
There is only one way that's possible, the big end of town knows there won't be any QE3 and they weren't in that rally...it was the little end of town pushes prices up and covering.
Crappy little rally on light volume! Lookout below...
Bam that was exciting... Who'se still long? I'm getting worried that we're not going to break last weeks high - just keep banging our heads against resistance at .0410
With the trending nature of AUD/USD it looks like the big picture of AUD is a huge bull flag.
Here's my piece, see how it plays out.
A push up to the median line approx 1.052 ish, retrace then up to the 1.068 1.070 mark before bear'ing up again. How much the retrace will be be before the last push up will depend on % bulls vs bears in this recent weeks burst in volume easily seen in the vol bars.
It broke through the recent resistance, mostly thanks to Draghi's hot air comment with a little verbal german support. I placed a short there but that will be taken out with my stop, no big deal, but will be averaging in my shorts over the next few cents climb.
Will be interesting to see if the flag plays out or it turns into a roll over.
Anyone else care to make a call?
AUD Big Picture.pngAUD Daily.png
I've earned some decent swap holding my longs on this pair over the past couple weeks
Ok, now it's delving more and more into overbought with little retracement, but the aussie is well known for it.
Just broke trend line resistance dating back to June 20, I've entered again, lets see what happens
Still pushing 75 on the 4 hour RSI, I hope I haven't jumped the gun... either way my euro shorts should cover me
Added a few more shorts, seems a little too early as it still may see 1.06 yet before a convincing roll, either way it's running out of puff and some sellers are coming in.
Will be interesting to see what the QE chat on Thursday has on it, appears to be so much factored in already.
The AUD is one of the only good setups at the moment, most of the rest are pure sh!t, but great for market makers.
In the long term you'd have to think the AUDUSD will come off a bit. Our good run economically will slow eventually. Plus US elections coming up - that usually strengthens the USD too.