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  1. #1

    Default Long Term Stock Ideas

    I'm on the hunt for some more candidates to research for a looong term portfolio.

    Anybody want to share some prospects they like? Price doesn't have to be right at the moment - I can wait for that to occur, but the quality of the management and business economics needs to be already obvious to warrant doing more research.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by craft View Post
    I'm on the hunt for some more candidates to research for a looong term portfolio.

    Anybody want to share some prospects they like? Price doesn't have to be right at the moment - I can wait for that to occur, but the quality of the management and business economics needs to be already obvious to warrant doing more research.
    AJA

    Normally I would not go near property but its trading at a 30-50% discount to NTA. You get a nice currency hedge and the Olympics should support the property market.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by craft View Post
    I'm on the hunt for some more candidates to research for a looong term portfolio.
    Anybody want to share some prospects they like?
    Hey craft, any market cap or liquidity preferences?

  4. #4

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by ThirtysixD View Post
    AJA

    Normally I would not go near property but its trading at a 30-50% discount to NTA. You get a nice currency hedge and the Olympics should support the property market.
    Hi 36D

    Thanks for the suggestion.

    I’m sure the attributes you mention will make it a good candidate for some However I have dismissed it at first pass (the stage I make my greatest mistakes of omission) as a very long term candidate. Doesn’t have the earnings stability I desire and I don’t particularly know much about Japanese Property to be the smartest guy in the room on that front.

    But like I say I make the biggest mistakes in my first pass – so if you want to elaborate some more – please do. It’s normally when something or somebody inspires me to take a second look that the rough diamonds are found.

  5. #5

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by systematic View Post
    Hey craft, any market cap or liquidity preferences?
    No.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Well I'd say CAT, but I'm sure you're after companies that are already profitable.
    Donkeys live a long time. None of you has ever seen a dead donkey

  7. #7
    Beyond Good and Evil
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    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by McLovin View Post
    Well I'd say CAT, but I'm sure you're after companies that are already profitable.
    CAT is basically already profitable, they're just footing their growth requirements through the P & L.

    How profitable it will be in 10 years and whether the market cap justifies such a thing, well that's where I'm currently stuck.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by McLovin View Post
    Well I'd say CAT, but I'm sure you're after companies that are already profitable.
    Reasonably clear pathway to profitable with very little (preferably no) further requirements for external capital to stay alive (external capital for additional growth is O.K)

    CAT seems to fit the bill and I have started looking but haven't got far on it yet.

  9. #9
    skc's Avatar
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    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    APX, ELX, PPS, LAA, PGC, PRO.

    Don't have time to run through each name now...but perhaps posting in their respective threads will generate more discussion.

  10. #10
    Beyond Good and Evil
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    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    NAN

    Recurring revenue
    Bugger all (visible) competition
    Almost self-funded
    Global market
    Disruptive technology
    Medical hygiene device & also sells the consumables and does the maintenance
    Fairly sure there are reams of clinical studies endorsing its effectiveness compared to alternatives

    Fairly sure they raised a big chunk of capital to help them grow earlier in the year and there was around $45m left.

    I had a spread sheet model for this done up 18 months ago and worked out a lot of the cost structure (most likely out of date I'd say) when it was trading at about 60-70 cents. Never did pull the trigger.

  11. #11

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by skc View Post
    APX, ELX, PPS, LAA, PGC, PRO.

    Don't have time to run through each name now...but perhaps posting in their respective threads will generate more discussion.
    Unless I've got this wrong.... Every one of the above stocks went up today [along with AJA and NAN] in a down market....

    ??
    "The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away." Marcus Aurelius

  12. #12

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    I'm also interested in this topic, I think I've been screening every week with different ideas for 2 years!

    More into the proven history sort of stocks. I've been keen on ANZ, WOW and TLS once their rebasing occurs at the cycle bottom.

    ANZ will hit a bad debt peak at some stage (similar to 74, 82, 91, 08 - every decade has had a crisis that sees it go through the roof)
    WOW is rebasing their margins to achieve sustainable growth (-30% Margin / Profit for H1, but it's a 3 year strategy that could go lower)
    TLS is low growth, high yield so is more tied into a cyclical valuation drop via a macro downturn, but a company specific opporunity is possible like 2011 too (competitive threads led to reducing margins by about 10%).

    I've also been wanting to get onto the Health and Agriculture macros but haven't found a specific company with the right characteristics in terms of quality and price, so open to any suggestions.

    I've looked at the IPOs- MGC had me interested, but decided against it due to dairy price volatility and some animal welfare concerns. SunRice is coming up next year, but it's exposed to weather. Health IPOs seem to be expensively priced due to the perceived macro.

    If nothing presents, I'm happy to wait for the next 20-30% market drawdown and gradually buy a bit of everything.
    Last edited by shouldaindex; 5th-December-2015 at 12:40 AM.

  13. #13
    The Contrarian Averager So_Cynical's Avatar
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    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    At the Micro end of the scale.

    • HZR - Hazer, has blue sky technology commercialising Iron + NG to Graphite & Hydrogen.
    • CTT - Food Revolution, Health drinks targeting the Chinese market.
    • NRR - Alcidion Corporation, Patient/hospital management software.


    All 3 just starting their journeys, CTT & NRR have cash flow, all 3 zero debt and some potential, i hold.
    Statistics: 172 Closed Trades since July 07, Trades: Winners 135 - Losers 37, Expectancy/$1 Risked: $0.78

  14. #14

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Lots of interesting suggestions coming up, quite a few that had escaped my radar!
    "I started with nothing, and I still have most of it"
    if you choose to take this post as advice its free, and you have been overcharged.

  15. #15

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    BAL

    Yes it's gone up 1300% already since float, but try to find a reason that selling baby formula to rich chinese won't continue to work out.

    The only issues are getting supply to make enough of their product. Management seems strong, and it's an easy one to chart. It just.... goes up.
    Down days are never that bad, and up days are amazing.


    I hold, traded in and out since about $6. Not selling again until my shares are worth an apartment deposit or an outright Tesla purchase


    If it isn't $20 by the end of next year, I'll be very surprised. Look at Blackmores which is mostly pseudoscience products that don't benefit the people who buy them at all.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    I hold and trade DUB. Boring stock, just call recording in the cloud, but I like boring as it keeps the punters away.

  17. #17
    Klogg's Avatar
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    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Pro-Medicus (PME)

    Business itself is impressive - not so sure about the price.

  18. #18

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Adslot (ADJ)

    Global digital publishing platform for advertising. Just about to become profitable based on trend of sales. But not anticipated to become profitable ~2017 due to ongoing expansion of the business throughout various countries.

    Risks - other than the obvious one of running out of money - being beaten in this space by another competitor;
    or if successful, being bought out before the upside is fully realised.

    One to take a punt on.



    Disclosure - holding via FAC purchase.

  19. #19

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    As always; no story - just running numbers.

    Caveat: Completely ignoring price. I'm going for 'quality' here. I base that on your comment that the price does not have to be right. Therefore I wouldn't (necessarily) be investing in these, as of course just like yourself - the price has to be right (amongst other things)

    Anyway...on quality alone:

    Vita Group
    Navitas
    Cochlear
    JB Hi-Fi
    Blackmores


    Saunders International
    Nick Scali
    Oz Forex
    DWS
    AMA Group

  20. #20

    Default Re: Long Term Stock Ideas

    Quote Originally Posted by systematic View Post
    As always; no story - just running numbers.

    Caveat: Completely ignoring price. I'm going for 'quality' here. I base that on your comment that the price does not have to be right. Therefore I wouldn't (necessarily) be investing in these, as of course just like yourself - the price has to be right (amongst other things)

    Anyway...on quality alone:

    Vita Group
    Navitas
    Cochlear
    JB Hi-Fi
    Blackmores


    Saunders International
    Nick Scali
    Oz Forex
    DWS
    AMA Group
    I like your top group apart from NVT which I consider has seen the best of its days. Other comments on that thread.
    "The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away." Marcus Aurelius



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