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  1. #1

    Default A modest futures trading log

    I am another ASF member to make the move to Futures, I will be focusing all my attention on the ES. I have a LIVE Account however for the next one or two months I will be trading Live data but in demo mode.

    I hope experienced members can add their 2 cents where ever possible. I am currently trying to get a handle of volume analysis.

    First trade was a LOSS of -4 ticks. I entered this trade long because I noticed a spike in volume combined with the fact that the bar was bullish. I would have expected with that amount of volume that it should have driven price down even further if the bears were still in control but it did not go down further on higher volume so I went long. I got smoked. Maybe next time look for similar setup on an important level...

    Second trade

    Price was at the trend line and the level held at the 30min mark. Waited for confirmation in the way of two bullish bars and went long. Aggressively trailed the stop behind the price to the point where I got stopped out at +8 ticks.


  2. #2

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Can you indicate the bars you entered and exited on.
    That way I can see exactly what you were looking at

  3. #3

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by tech/a View Post
    Can you indicate the bars you entered and exited on.
    That way I can see exactly what you were looking at
    Hey mate I have colour coded Trade 1 in Green and Trade 2 in Blue. I appreciate you lending your expertise in advance.


  4. #4

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Firstly in my opinion---you need to be able to identify volume that needs to be considered.
    An increase in volume --- on itself means nothing.

    You need to be looking for a number of things that put a story together.
    A picture will form in front of you and you need to be able to interpret it.

    I've marked on the chart the volume which means something on this chart.

    NOW
    Note that straight after extreme volume price often (In every case here) turns
    and goes the other way.(That's a fade trade).

    DURING
    That trade you need to be considering volume and range to give you a guide
    as to what is likely to occur.

    (1) Keep going opposite to the Volume bar.
    OR
    (2) Return to the trend
    OR
    (3) Consolidate.

    This then helps for the decision to close the trade and swing it or leave it open!

    Ill leave you to look at the chart in hind site and see if you can spot the clues.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  5. #5

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Thank you tech\a - I will be paying more attention to volume spikes around support and resistance now. How did you learn to read volume in the way you do? Are there any particular authors I should be looking up re: volume?


    It looks like I was trailing my stop a little to aggressively on this trade.

    I entered this trade because I was watching the trend lines. Soon as it broke the trend line at (time) 18:08 I was looking to go long. At the same time I was switching over to the 5m chart and noticing a lot of buying pressure pushing into the 97.00 level (high closes, less bear bars etc).


  6. #6
    ....everything has an art Joules MM1's Avatar
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    Default Re: A modest ES trading log






    Quote Originally Posted by Modest
    It looks like I was trailing my stop a little to aggressively on this trade.

    I entered this trade because I was watching the trend lines. Soon as it broke the trend line at (time) 18:08 I was looking to go long. At the same time I was switching over to the 5m chart and noticing a lot of buying pressure pushing into the 97.00 level (high closes, less bear bars etc).
    to keep the convo diplomatic, let's place the trade in the first person

    in the chart above this one I'd blank out each bar going back the the tallest volume bar, then I would pose a wot-happens-next question, I would take off all the psuedo trendlines (m/a's) and take off the actual straight lines and rethink what is best operational indicia at hand if any, then i would ask to break down the time frame into smaller bars and look for a balance within the volume, where is there more transacting at the offer, in which bars, is the transacting a sign of pros selling into strength in a subtle way while theyre allowing momo to run, until the value zone becomes so stretched that all the accounts get what they can? what are the signs other than large bars opening and closing, bars closing at the high looks bullish but the more you break down the bars the more you see the real picture, tik volume might make a difference.....my main point here is that any derivative of the price as it unfurls is only mirroring the best of what the derivative can, well derive as its past tense data filtered......there's nothing wrong with that if you have already spent the time observing the nuances and characteristics of the indicia versus the actual price, but, even then you, yourself, become the filter and you react to your own filtering, so, reacting in even less time than to the actual price itself

    in this chart of 1 min, frankly, I'd take off the trendlines and leave them off
    the m/a's can be handy if you are prepared to do back testing on something like this: if you think you see a swing low where new buy bars overlap sell bars, say, for arguments sake 3 bars up versus previous 3 bars down, the volume has lifted so we know the interest in that level is lifted even if it is balanced (sells=buys) let's say your 2 m/a's are set to something like 9/27 you have a 1:3 setting, let's say the m/a's coss back over AND you see a smaller swing high bet broken, then, in that instance you can use the m/a's as a trigger to go long and use you most recent swing low as the stop.....that's to get you in the door.

    basically, if youre going to tell a story of how price is unfolding WITH the volume story getting rid of the distraction is going to allow you to clearly focus, a what-if, if you are restricted, what could you achieve kinda-thing

    given that it's a hindsight observation, blanking out the bars makes you tell the story differently, at least your brain engages differently, your focus is better.....keep in mind that even if your summation comes out the odds are still high that the story does not match the play but is coincidental to the play...by that I mean, tell the story and tell the technique so that if the story is incorrect you have a basis for posing the idea that even tho the trade may work in your favour you are alerted to an alternate play in hand yet to come and with that in mind you can rescue being trapped.....if you are constantly trying to narrate a play you'll often miss a simple play that fits well within the trigger-to-target technique....

    the less clutter on the screen the less clutter in your head, what exactly is telling the story, your logic or the after-effect of price or the unproven trendlines?

    magenta and blue m/a's are offering you an effective trigger, combined with bars passing previous swing highs and lows, giving you stop levels the target is yours to find

    place the whole road-trip into a single bar in the larger time frame, then tell that story too

    a slightly diff narration in this chart :
    Click image for larger version. 

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    the rsi is probably going to offer a great many false positives and adds to distraction as your eye is constantly engaged in recognition

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Marcus
    ....and everything you'll ever need to know exists in the price bars.
    just ideas
    ...practice perfectly, to make what you do, a perfect expression of yourself.

  7. #7
    ....everything has an art Joules MM1's Avatar
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    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    i should add that in the instance of the two sell levels the first stop can be dragged below the STO level so you are in the black (with or without scaling)

    that there was a bidders gap 'n go below and once all the fuel was used that gap looked attractive to a lot of players .....there are several other stories in there, as different groups interract, different sizes of liquidity come in and engage to get their business done, so not all the parts have anything to do with trend, thus, again, the trendline thing can become a ruse or a distraction......probably both

    again, just ideas
    ...practice perfectly, to make what you do, a perfect expression of yourself.

  8. #8

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Joules MM1 View Post


    where is there more transacting at the offer, in which bars, is the transacting a sign of pros selling into strength in a subtle way while theyre allowing momo to run
    How can I see this, is this something I can visually see in the candle or do I need to look at the DOM? Sorry don't quite understand fully as yet..

    Quote Originally Posted by Joules MM1 View Post

    the less clutter on the screen the less clutter in your head, what exactly is telling the story, your logic or the after-effect of price or the unproven trendlines?

    magenta and blue m/a's are offering you an effective trigger, combined with bars passing previous swing highs and lows, giving you stop levels the target is yours to find
    Thanks mate I have gone ahead and removed the RSI and dropped the 50, and 200 MA. I have left the Magenta T-Line and the 21 SMA.


    Thanks for the pointers and the chart, you guys rock!

  9. #9
    ....everything has an art Joules MM1's Avatar
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    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Modest View Post
    How can I see this, is this something I can visually see in the candle or do I need to look at the DOM? Sorry don't quite understand fully as yet..



    Thanks mate I have gone ahead and removed the RSI and dropped the 50, and 200 MA. I have left the Magenta T-Line and the 21 SMA.


    Thanks for the pointers and the chart, you guys rock!
    without plugging someones gear, talk to Canoz about jigsawtrading.com .....pretty sure ninja could give you what you need to get basic volume profiling.....or footprints/marketdelta.com stuff

    keep concentrating on price everything beyond price tends to lead traders toward majic bullet theorem blah

    wait til the venerable TH joins in .......I rate this thread 5 stars
    ...practice perfectly, to make what you do, a perfect expression of yourself.

  10. #10

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Joules MM1 View Post
    without plugging someones gear, talk to Canoz about jigsawtrading.com .....pretty sure ninja could give you what you need to get basic volume profiling.....or footprints/marketdelta.com stuff

    keep concentrating on price everything beyond price tends to lead traders toward majic bullet theorem blah

    wait til the venerable TH joins in .......I rate this thread 5 stars
    Awesome! I'll be sure to check that out tonight. I appreciate your help and the chart is definitely easier to read (chart below), I think I just kept all those MA's from my Spot FX days.

    Last trade for the night before a couple of hours researching



    I entered this trade (in blue) because of two main reasons. 1) On the 5m at 20:55 and 21:00 a very nice reversal pattern 2) the signal was at an important level 2096.50.

    I was actually trying to enter 2 bars back but price moved away from me so I had to trail my limit order for a tick pull back.

    Looks like I trailed my stop aggressively once again as there was more up move but that is ok, that is one bad habit I can live with, for now.

    Thanks all for your support and advice I am very grateful.

  11. #11

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    I noticed my platform has an interesting feature called TFlow. Is this worth looking into or even using? Seems pretty good but, what is the catch?

    This video covers bid and ask volumes, aggregated TFlow bars, and smoothing aggregation.

    Here is a video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxsyraUxQws

    I have started reading Master The Markets by Tom Williams, probably get it printed out and bound me thinks.

  12. #12

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Modest View Post
    I noticed my platform has an interesting feature called TFlow. Is this worth looking into or even using? Seems pretty good but, what is the catch?

    This video covers bid and ask volumes, aggregated TFlow bars, and smoothing aggregation.

    Here is a video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxsyraUxQws

    I have started reading Master The Markets by Tom Williams, probably get it printed out and bound me thinks.
    No catch, just another format to read a chart in that shows the volume in the bar, wider, brighter = more volume etc. Have checked it out before, it's really down to personal taste, and stick with that, whatever you prefer really, some like bars, some candles, some P&F, some TFlow.
    "Long before the tree falls, the trunk has weakened." - Brett Steenbarger

  13. #13
    ....everything has an art Joules MM1's Avatar
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    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaFVYXHsw9E

    watch minutes 7 thru 29

    John Grady (NoBSTrading.com) talks about size in the que, yet to print, support and cascading

    dont think of the scalping side

    see if you can see an edge for yourself in running chart and dom
    not necessarily this particular platform

    the diff between old printed (re)presented volume and unprinted volume is a wide chasm
    youre still narrating, the difference is when you get data not just how you get data

    commend watching it a cupla times

    ideas
    ...practice perfectly, to make what you do, a perfect expression of yourself.

  14. #14
    Can be found on the bid Trembling Hand's Avatar
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    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Personally think the dom on the es is far too thick and full of algos to get get much from it nowadays.

    Modest seems like you are trading live and in the space of a few nights already changed your tools and techniques? Or at least you seem to not have an approach nailed down.

    If you are live it would suggest you maybe shouldn't be??(sorry if I have that wrong).

    EDIT. Just re-read the first post. Sorry carry on.
    "Those who do not move, do not notice their chains."

  15. #15

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Trembling Hand View Post
    Personally think the dom on the es is far too thick and full of algos to get get much from it nowadays.

    Modest seems like you are trading live and in the space of a few nights already changed your tools and techniques? Or at least you seem to not have an approach nailed down.

    If you are live it would suggest you maybe shouldn't be??(sorry if I have that wrong).

    EDIT. Just re-read the first post. Sorry carry on.
    Thanks for posting TH!

    Volume is new to me and I am trying to figure out a way to incorporate it into my discretionary trading. That act alone is kind of throwing me off quite a bit as I try to figure out how and where to incorporate volume in my strategy. I think this will hopefully fall into place with more screen time and studying VSA.

    I guess it appears I am changing techniques in a whim but I want to be as malleable as possible. At the heart of my discretionary strategy I have always (and still do) base all my trades on:

    Price
    Support and Resistance
    Pivots/Swings
    Trend Lines
    A handful of patterns
    Candlesticks (at important levels)

    AND Volume (when I figure out how to properly incorporate it!)

    Last night trading was especially bad as I was trying to implement some of the things I learned about Volume during the day into my trading - wiped my gains and some.


    Thanks for all your replies!

  16. #16
    Can be found on the bid Trembling Hand's Avatar
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    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Modest View Post
    Volume is new to me and I am trying to figure out a way to incorporate it into my discretionary trading.
    I would be careful of taking on anything new, including peoples suggestions. You should use tools to make sense of the market that you see. Not take on what others are seeing. It's a recipe for flipping & flopping from one thing to the next.
    "Those who do not move, do not notice their chains."

  17. #17

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by Trembling Hand View Post
    I would be careful of taking on anything new, including peoples suggestions. You should use tools to make sense of the market that you see. Not take on what others are seeing. It's a recipe for flipping & flopping from one thing to the next.
    So simple but so true. You're right, it makes a lot of sense.

    I have reverted back to my previous chart setup to include the additional SMA's and RSI. It is hard to explain but I feel much more comfortable with all my tools back on the screen. I think I underestimated how much I actually use those tools sub/consciously.

  18. #18

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Tom Williams book on Volume (Undeclared Secrets of the Stock Market) has been phenomenal in helping me get a tiny grip on VSA. I am half way through the book at the moment and it is by far the best trading book I have read thus far.

    I love how Tom summarises the key concepts of Volume Analysis:

    "All strength appears on down bars
    and
    Weakness appears on up bars"

    Here is one of my trades I took this evening and my noobie interpretation of volume.


  19. #19

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Just be careful with your new found knowledge.

    VSA is a concept not a panacea
    There is much to VSA well beyond that which
    Gavin Holmes ( Tom Williams ) espouse.

    It's real benifit comes when you know what precedes
    Good lower risk setups.
    If you took every signal in isolation you'd be in the
    Poor house very quickly.

    In your example the high volume bars before the turn
    Are the real VSA signals. It's a story which un folds.

  20. #20

    Default Re: A modest ES trading log

    Quote Originally Posted by tech/a View Post
    Just be careful with your new found knowledge.

    VSA is a concept not a panacea
    There is much to VSA well beyond that which
    Gavin Holmes ( Tom Williams ) espouse.

    It's real benifit comes when you know what precedes
    Good lower risk setups.
    If you took every signal in isolation you'd be in the
    Poor house very quickly.

    In your example the high volume bars before the turn
    Are the real VSA signals. It's a story which un folds.
    I am excited about being a VSA practitioner, it has changed the way I view and interpret the market story that unfolds bar by bar. I knew I was onto something bloody good when VSA got me out of a trade that would have turned against me had I not known what to look for.

    I am going to the source of VSA and by reading "The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks." this weekend. I will also keep Tom William's book "Undeclared Secrets of the Stock Market" close by at all times.
    Last edited by Modest; 8th-August-2015 at 12:16 PM.



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