INP - Innamincka Petroleum

[lioness]

Looks like that gap at 45 cents wants to be filled sooner than later.

It may hit that in the coming weeks.

[anth]

Quote: Originally Posted by lioness Looks like that gap at 45 cents wants to be filled sooner than later. It may hit that in the coming weeks.

[long$$]

Today's rating of INP by Comsec:
20/03/08
Last Traded: $0.645 Market Cap: $103m Sector: Energy
BUY / OUT PERFORM Valuation: $1.98
Summary of report dated
20/03/08
Analysis
INP is focussing on production to generate cash flow and CommSec projects that by the end of CY08 INP will:
* still have over $10m in cash on its balance sheet
* daily production of 1000 barrels, generating over $1m a month from operations
INP is trading at a discount to reserves
The present INP share price is a discount to the NPV of its presently reported reserves, which CommSec estimates to be over 80c. This gives no value to:
* an expected increase in reserves in the Flax field as the Flax 5 and Flax 6 appraisal wells intersected larger oil pay zones than reflected in the existing Oil In Place
(OIP) and hence reserves estimates,
* the nearly 100m barrels of oil in place (OIP) that are not considered in the reserve
estimates, for which CommSec expects a reserve announcement in the middle of
2009, and
* INP’s upside potential.
Outlook
INP is currently drilling the Yarrow North 1 exploration well, testing for an oil
accumulation north of the Yarrow 1 gas discovery. If oil is found, then INP’s OIP resources will be increased; if it is gas, then the well will be completed to produce gas for injection in the Flax field.
Valuation and recommendation
CommSec retains BUY / OUT PERFORM. In CommSec’s view, INP offered good
value at the $1.17 equity raising, it now offers even better value, with very little risk in operations or commodity pricing, and it still has HUGE upside. CommSec’s base case net present value is $1.98

[BenH]

Hi all im new to this so any advice is greatly appreciated. INP at one stage was up 10%, closed up 5.5 % hmmm i bought in at 70c, hoping like hell it is turning around, i can't see it dropping too much more, but im usually wrong lol. According to Comm Sec, its all good news in the long run, but since theri reports were released its dropped 30% so what can you all tell me?

[Wysiwyg]

Quote: Originally Posted by BenH Hi all im new to this so any advice is greatly appreciated. INP at one stage was up 10%, closed up 5.5 % hmmm i bought in at 70c, hoping like hell it is turning around, i can't see it dropping too much more, but im usually wrong lol. According to Comm Sec, its all good news in the long run, but since theri reports were released its dropped 30% so what can you all tell me?

[EasternGrey1]

Quote: Originally Posted by Wysiwyg Small to mid-caps have been cold to freezing irrespective of good to excellent results.

[BenH]

I think i do have a copy somewhere, there is a link on the INP website http://www.innapet.com.au however this is the December report. I recall them releasing another one as well, i have it in PDF somewhere but im not sure how to post it here. Lets see what it all does today

[kennas]

Quote: Originally Posted by BenH I recall them releasing another one as well, i have it in PDF somewhere but im not sure how to post it here.

[BenH]

Ok, there is a rundown in here somewhere, hope it helps, its a little bit like double dutch to me, im new to all of this, but having fun.

[long$$]

EasternGrey1 - BenH has provided the pdf file from which my post was copied from a Comsec research insight on 20/3.

There is a more in depth Comsec article posted on the INP web site (referred to earlier in this thread).

The report on the INP site has predictions of the effect of various variables such as oil price. It should be possible for someone with the appropriate spreadsheet skills to develop an algorithm that predicts INP price from the variables considered. I would guess that the price given in the 20/3 Comsec research insight has used such an algorithm.

[BenH]

Well here is hoping they are right, in that case its a bargain at the on average 80c a share I've paid for it. As I see it the main issue seems to be getting the stuff out of the ground. Where do we stand if they keep finding gas instead of oil? Or is this a good thing, meaning oil may be lower? Excuse my ignorance, I've been doing this for a whole 3 months lol, and currently 12% down over all. I guess I may have jumped in at the wrong time.

[EasternGrey1]

Thx for the link. If you're only down 12% over 3mths, you are doing well. You won't know till it's too late whether you jumped in at the right time!

[BenH]

Well thats reassuring lol, im looking at PSA as well, does anyone know anything about this one, Com Sec has a buy recommendation on that one too, however like INP, its going backwards. Any suggestions?

[BenH]

This chat has gone quiet, any news anyone? It seems to have stalled and is hovering at the moment, which way next?

[EasternGrey1]

Flax 7 drilling has stalled for a couple of days, doesn't seem to have helped. But who knows what the market ever thinks (does it actually THINK???) .....

[BenH]

Who knows, i was thinking about selling out, im down 28% but then part of me thinks, hmm i don't need the money, and there is a bit going on so maybe i wait for some good news.
What does everyone think about this strategy, ie hold it long term and see where it goes?

[EasternGrey1]

WTH - why not hang in there. Comsec value it at 1.98. 0.60 isn't exactly demanding. All they've got to do is unstick their drill bit, puncture a few more holes in the reservoir, and collect the stuff as it runs out. 1k bbls/day just about justifies the whole share price, and they should end up producing stacks more than that. I've never understood why the market does what it does, I just look for value in the shares I buy and then hang on to them for as long as they still look good value. Usually it works, sometimes it doesn't. I'm certainly not selling INP yet.

[BenH]

INP up 16.67% today, close at 70c whats the go with that? Im almost back to where i started, will it get to 80c ?

[EasternGrey1]

0.80? Try 1.80. See long$$'s post on 21 March: "CommSec retains BUY / OUT PERFORM. In CommSec’s view, INP offered good value at the $1.17 equity raising, it now offers even better value, with very little risk in operations or commodity pricing, and it still has HUGE upside. CommSec’s base case net present value is $1.98.".

The latest hole is now near full depth, and "Elevated gas readings and oil fluorescence were reported through the overlying Permian section. These shows are comparable to those encountered in the nearby wells in the Flax field.". (Yesterday's ann.).

Just finding what they hoped to find should be enough to push the share price up nicely. I rather like HUGE upside in my shares!!

[BenH]

Another great day or INP, back to 75c, or 17 %, what gives, why such a jump all of a sudden? Lets keep it moving