INP - Innamincka Petroleum

[EasternGrey1]

I invest on fundamental value not charts (that's not to say charts are no good, just that they don't suit me). I have owned INP for a while, and what a pleasure it has been.

Following their Flax East find, I recalculated my value for INP, based on such info as was available, and let's just say that it came out worth way way more than the then share price of around 1.40.

Commentary in the industry, I believe, has been that INP's fields will be difficult to develop, hence industry insiders haven't been buying. My take is that peak oil is here or not far away, oil prices won't stay down for any extended period, and therefore the oil price will pay for the difficulty. ie, INP will do well.

[lioness]

Quote: Originally Posted by EasternGrey1 I invest on fundamental value not charts (that's not to say charts are no good, just that they don't suit me). I have owned INP for a while, and what a pleasure it has been. Following their Flax East find, I recalculated my value for INP, based on such info as was available, and let's just say that it came out worth way way more than the then share price of around 1.40. Commentary in the industry, I believe, has been that INP's fields will be difficult to develop, hence industry insiders haven't been buying. My take is that peak oil is here or not far away, oil prices won't stay down for any extended period, and therefore the oil price will pay for the difficulty. ie, INP will do well.

[EasternGrey1]

At this early stage, you can't really evaluate INP by the usual methods of deriving an NPV from future earnings. There are too many unknowns.

But I believe you can get a good idea using some more basic methods.

You can realistically put a net today value of around $8 per inground recoverable barrel of oil, before development starts. If INP in 75%-owned Flax-Juniper has 120m boe recoverable, then it is worth about 75% * $8 * 120m ~= $750m. INP's current market cap is $224m.

You can take it on from there, using your own figures, and bringing in all INP's other oil & gas fields.

[lioness]

Can anyone help me in relation to the current charting pattern of INP.

After a large move last week, it now looks like a flag pattern has played out in the last 5 days and is readying itself for another move in the next 1-2 weeks. Obviously the moving averages(MACD) have just crossed over and volume indicates accumulation is occuring, the ADX and DMI is also looking positive.

DJ420 would you care to have a go and what might be the next move??

Or anyone else willing to comment.

Many thanks, I am trying to learn like anyone else. To me it looks like another sharp move may occur soon.

[lioness]

Gee, I thought this was a good forum for helping others but it looks like no-one cares on here except for themselves.

Very disappointing.

[EasternGrey1]

Hi, lioness, it's not that I'm not wanting to be helpful. it's just that I don't do charting. Pity no-one else came in on that.

On fundamentals, I'm very keen on INP. It has bucketloads of the stuff in the ground, and good prospects of (a) producing a lot of it and (b) finding more. The share price nowhere near reflects their true prospects.

The main point of caution is that they clearly have fields that are difficult to develop. Santos has coped well with fields like that for years, so it isn't an overriding concern - just make sure you don't pay too an enthusiastic price now. I am convinced that the oil price - although it will fluctuate enough to test everyone's mettle - will remain strong for the next many years, and that that will be sufficient to enable INP to develop its fields successfully. (At a high oil price, more expensive methods are viable).

Good luck with the charting, though. Sorry it's not my scene.

[lioness]

Many thanks Eastern Grey, but I think fundamentals alone once proven that the Flax and Juniper fields are just one large field will make this worth a lot more than the current price.

The drilling starts on 5/1/08 and by the time the independent report comes out end of Jan, we should see blue sky here.

Very low trading volume recently and what I can see happening is good accumulation happening.

Cheers and where are the chartists??

[jet328]

Quote: Originally Posted by EasternGrey1 You can realistically put a net today value of around $8 per inground recoverable barrel of oil, before development starts. If INP in 75%-owned Flax-Juniper has 120m boe recoverable, then it is worth about 75% * $8 * 120m ~= $750m. INP's current market cap is $224m.

[lioness]

Quote: Originally Posted by jet328 Is the 120m recoverable? I think its more like 120m in place. Recovery 10-30%. So more like 12-36m recoverable. It is really dependant on the recovery rate which is very hard to judge at this stage. Some of the opinion it will be extremely hard to extract and others confident in fraccing and modern recovery techniques.

[EasternGrey1]

You're right, I used OGIP instead of recoverable.

Their reports indicate that they are generally expecting to get recovery of 30% or more. They will be injecting CO2 to achieve that recovery rate, it's costed and funded, and it seems credible.

Valuing the Flax Juniper 120mbbls in place at 30% recoverable, an arbitrary $US8/bbl, exchange rate 0.88 say, INP interest 75%, I get a value of 120*30%*8*(1/0.88)*75% = $A245m. This on its own is a bit more than INP's market cap (not sure if latest share issue is included).

So you're getting OK value on Flax Juniper, with all of Yarrow, Crocus, Gingko and other prospects in PEL103, PEL101 and ATP542 thrown in for free. If I add in all the figures they give for these, using 1bcf = 0.18mboe, I get a value for INP just over 200% of current market cap.

Even allowing for some NPV discounting, it still looks like a pretty good deal to me, so I'm holding onto my INP shares at least for now.

Given that they're targetting 1000bopd this year, they are going to have to raise production much higher to justify their share price, so there is still likely to be plenty of opportunity over the next year or two to buy in - but with the risk that new positive announcements (v likely IMHO) could push it up further.

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

INP ..... Top 20 report, showing they own only 38% and 5,8oo + other
holders owning 114m shares.

Looking ahead, with some astroanalysis, time cycles suggest INP will be
mostly negative, until July 2008:

18012008 ..... minor and positive light on INP

22012008 ..... minor, but long-term changes (finance-related???)

15022008 ..... minor and positive, but flat trading expected here

18022008 ..... 2 cycles focus negative spotlight on INP

22-26022008 ..... minor and negative cycle here

10-13032008 ..... 3 significant cycles ... negative news expected here

17-18032008 ..... positive spotlight on INP ...

01042008 ..... significant and positive news expected here

04042008 ..... positive cycle ... finance-related ???

16-17043008 ..... 2 difficult cycles = pullback ???

28042008 ..... minor and negative cycle

01052008 ..... significant and negative news expected here

05052008 ..... significant and positive cycle

16-19052008 ..... negative spotlight on INP

22-23052008 ..... significant and negative ... finance-related???

..... INP should start its next round of positive cycles, about 10072008
and in late-December 2008, INP should be rallying strongly.

More later .....

have a great day

paul

[lioness]

Paul,

Many thanks for your reponse. Much appreciated.

Keep up the great work and all the best for 2008

[Whitsy]

Hi guys,

Noticed that this thread has been quiet for some time and i'm struggling to source any new real information on INP (besides announcments on drilling progress).

Having been a long term holder of INP i'm stunned at the current falling sp. Am i missing something here ??? We all know that there is bucket loads of stuff in the ground and with a recoverable rate of around 30% costed and funded i'm a bit confused.

Any thoughts....

Cheers

[dj_420]

Quote: Originally Posted by lioness Gee, I thought this was a good forum for helping others but it looks like no-one cares on here except for themselves. Very disappointing.

[Whitsy]

For anyone that is interested COMSEC have released their independant review/evaluation on INP.

Just follow the link from latest news on their website www.innapet.com.au

Don't know why it wasn't released earlier after seeing when it was dated but oh well.

cheers

[lioness]

Can someone do a chart please.

Huge move today and may have broken downtrend.

Are we seeing a trendshift here??

Great news, they have more oil.

[lioness]

No-one willing to help with a chart?

What type of forum is this?

Can anyone help me please.

[EasternGrey1]

In this crazy market, is a chart really going to help?

Plenty of oil in the ground, development wells in progress, oil back up around $100, just buy up and sit tight till production starts.

It seems the market isn't prepared to pay a single cent for any future production. For those with a bit of time on their hands for research, plus cash and patience, this looks like a market for making a lot of money by selling out of just about everything except energy and resources (actually you should have sold out a while ago) and buying into companies that are nearing production or a production ramp-up. ie, it's the "second half" of an energy and resources cycle - in the "first half" you can buy anything. My money's already in INP (and one or two others) but if anyone's got any other good energy and resources ideas I'm listening.

Lioness, forgive me for saying it but I like your new pic - I have to confess I thought the ears weren't exactly crash-hot in the old one.....

[dj_420]

INP still in downtrend IMO. Has been trading inside that downward channel for the past 5 months. Had a downward false break of the channel and has returned twice to trend back inside the channel.

I dont know where it will turnaround but there is a BIG gap at 45 cents. MACD converging and looking to cross on the downside.

[Joe Blow]

Quote: Originally Posted by lioness No-one willing to help with a chart? What type of forum is this? Can anyone help me please.