Tasmanian Election - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Default Tasmanian Election

    This post is intended for info rather than to start a political debate... I've tried to be as unbiased as possible with my comments. Info is from the ABC coverage up to 8:30pm tonight.

    Counting so far strongly suggests that:

    Labor to retain majority government with at least 13 (of 25) seats and potentially up to 15 seats. The previous Deputy Premier has announced that he will not recontest the position though no word on who will. Paul Lennon is expected to remain as Premier.

    Liberals proabably 7 seats and no more than 8. Liberal train wreck number 3 with the leader having only 0.8 of a quota (though will likely be elected on prferences). The deputy leader has polled significantly higher than the leader with widespread speculation (this has been going on for some time) that he will become leader.

    Greens vote has dropped but still sufficient to be a legit "major" party in Tasmania. They will not gain their hoped-for role in a minority government however. The Greens are blaming pro-Labor advertising by business groups etc for their loss. It's worth noting that the Liberals were also, albeit indirectly, promoting a majority Labor government (as opposed to a minority with the Greens) via their campaigning since the Liberals were never expected to gain a majority themselves.

    So no major change in the Tas government it seems. In terms of the actual voting, Labor and Greens both down slightly, Liberals up slightly but the losses / gains have been in the right seats to keep Labor in government.

    This has implications for GNS in the near term (since the Greens absolutely oppose their activities and would likely have pushed this very strongly in the event of a Labor-Green government - it was the primary basis of their campaign) and in the longer term ZFX (since the Greens have a policy of driving up electricity prices, especially to the likes of ZFX which would render their Hobart operations unviable).

    Most significant points of the outcome IMO are the Greens' loss of support despite having a major campaign issue with the Gunns pulp mill proposal and that Labor has received as many votes as it has despite various blunders from the Premier and the hospitals issue being a dominant feature of the campaign. Nothing surprising IMO about the Liberal result as even the party itself didn't seem to seriously expect to form government.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Tasmanian Election

    Victory in SA also-get rid of the fat finger pointer (Beazley)

  3. #3

    Default Re: Tasmanian Election

    Election result. Labor has won majority government. Liberals have conceeded defeat. Greens declined to conceed defeat but Labor has majority. Details are posted in the GNS thread since it's very relevant to that stock.

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