I'm Brian Eastlake, new to the forums.
I was talking with a friend of mine a few weeks ago about trading. He doesn’t think that future price action can be assigned a probability based upon past price action. ie, he doesn’t believe in technical analysis whatsoever, and is somewhat suspicious of fundamental analysis too. Basically, he thinks price action is random.
I disagreed. I think both fundamental and technical analysis have their place - fundamental forces drive the higher timeframes, and I can clearly see technical patterns in price action, I’m just not always right about which pattern is dominating at any particular point in time.
My friend - Will - and I are both also interested in psychology, and we’ve previously discussed the phenomenon of how crowd aggregated predictions tend to be better than the predictions made by individuals (even experts).
You may have heard about the jellybeans-in-a-jar contest, where you have to guess the number of beans and the person with the closest guess wins the jar. If so, you may also have heard that the average of all the guesses is remarkably accurate, and consistently so.
Will pointed out that if price action wasn’t random, and future price action could be assigned a probability based upon past price action and/or fundamental analysis, that crowds should be able to consistently predict future price action better than most individuals.
So, we created a site to find out, and we’re now looking for participants in our experiment.
To be clear: we're not providing investment advice or selling a service, we're just trying to settle this question.
Participants in the experiment will make weekly predictions on EURUSD movements, which we will then average and compare to the actual market. If it works, we may get an idea of whether the market is likely to go up or down during the following week, as well as the likely size of the move. Initially the experiment will run for eight weeks, and we will of course be sharing the weekly predictions with whoever participates.
If you want to join us, all the details can be found on the website: https://www.marketcrowdwise.com/details. Or just ask me any questions you have here and I’ll do my best to answer them.