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  1. #1

    Default Is this a bear flag?

    Just looking at the CCL daily 6 month. Is this a bear flag?


  2. #2

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    It is a potential flag, you wont know for sure until it confirms. The next considerations are IF it confirms, and IF it behaves as it should, what is the projected target and where does that sit in terms of support and resistance. The target sits nicely at support, but it has to get past the support at $12 first. The major tops are lower, the MA is down and the gap is not a dividend gap, so something might be going on.

    CCL.JPG

    BUT

    The daily swing bottoms are making higher bottoms and higher tops, so it may be the beginnning of a new upward move off of the $12 support. Time will tell.

    CCL2.JPG


    Thanks for the heads up, one to watch for sure. Now added to the watch list.
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  3. #3

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Thanks for your insights How do you calculate the target?

  4. #4

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by jdenhaan View Post
    Thanks for your insights How do you calculate the target?
    Its the height of the flag pole, the easiest way is to just copy the line you drew and place it at the end of the flag. You place it at the opposite side. So your flag pole ends at the bottom left of the flag, so the copied lines starts at the top right and projects down. Other way round for bullish flags. You can see how I drew them in the images in the post above but exact placement will depend on when the break out happens.
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  5. #5

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Now it's getting interesting. There is often criticism about hindsight trading on this forum, but they also say to not give advice, so I'll just say my entry, stop and profit orders are in, but the trade hadsnt triggered yet. See what happens next week.



    CCL3.JPG
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  6. #6
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    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by beachlife View Post
    Now it's getting interesting. There is often criticism about hindsight trading on this forum, but they also say to not give advice, so I'll just say my entry, stop and profit orders are in, but the trade hadsnt triggered yet. See what happens next week.
    If I was to take this trade I'd take it now rather then wait for a conventional "trigger". Much better RR on offer (marked red vs blue).

    The situation with CCL is that it is in a earnings downgrade cycle. The last update was 4 Nov and there's no report until Feb. There's unlikely any catalyst for an impulsive up move, and leaves plenty of time for your target to be reached.

    Not saying I will trade this or that I'd be right... just saying I'd take a different approach.

    Capture.JPG

  7. #7

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Seems an ok short set up to me also and agree with skc that now is better for maximizing the return for risk. If you zoom out there's a trendline that was crossed on 7/11.

  8. #8

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    I'm not trading it as a flag so the assumptions about my entry point, stop and target (and risk/reward) are a bit off. If the trade goes live I will disclose all once its over, win or lose, doesnt matter. If the OP hadnt raised my curiosity I wouldnt be looking at it, but if it goes like I think, my scan would most likely pick it up on Monday.

    Interesting to hear about the fundamentals, I have no idea, I just follow the crowd, often in stocks that I dont even know who they are or what they do. All I know about ccl is that its something to do with Coke - I think.

    I cant see the trend line, but probably because I dont use them. I just use a moving averages, swings, ATR and fib/gann ratios.

    I'm not trading it as a flag - I dont use patterns either - but am curious to see if it behaves like one. Putting some money on it just makes it a bit more interesting.

    At the end, for the OP it will be interesting to see how it would have played if traded as a flag, and compare the differences in approaches.

    It didnt trigger but I will leave the orders on for Monday morning.
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  9. #9
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    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by beachlife View Post
    I'm not trading it as a flag so the assumptions about my entry point, stop and target (and risk/reward) are a bit off. If the trade goes live I will disclose all once its over, win or lose, doesnt matter. If the OP hadnt raised my curiosity I wouldnt be looking at it, but if it goes like I think, my scan would most likely pick it up on Monday.
    Sure. Please update us if you do put on the trade.

    Quote Originally Posted by beachlife View Post
    Interesting to hear about the fundamentals, I have no idea, I just follow the crowd, often in stocks that I dont even know who they are or what they do. All I know about ccl is that its something to do with Coke - I think.
    I think knowing a bit about the fundamentals in this case support a more assertive entry... but each to their own and it may or may not matter.

  10. #10

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    I think its safe to say the flag failed.

    My trade is still possible and supported by the MMA (for now) so orders are still in.


    cclmma.JPG
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  11. #11

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    I just wouldn't invest since softdrink is bad for you lol.

    That sounds stupid but I think a simple qualitative statement can give you some idea. Softdrink is bad for you, things that are bad for you are not as popular as they used to be and they are trending downwards as people aim to be healthier and therefore it's not a good investment. Further, why support products that make people unhealthy and kill them in the long run?

    By the way, pretending you see patterns in charts without understanding what qualitative and quanatiative aspects drive the market is just silly. All you are doing is playing astrology since you don't understand the company. CCL is about the easiest company to understand. They sell lines of primarily beverages such as Coke, Fanta, Sprite, and Mount Franklin Water and are also involved in a number of alcoholic beverages (such as in the case of jim beam, their cola is used as a mixer in the pre mixes) and have interests in some food brands which are also bad for you across the board.

  12. #12

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    I suppose all their expenditure into eco-friendly plastics and similar is worth nothing when it comes to being 'ethical'. Thinking blowfill and crush bottles, efficient use of water and fridges, McGrath Breast Cancer foundation (Mount Franklin), Coca Cola Australia (and Indonesia) Foundation, donating to disaster zones and upgrading to PET bottles in to reduce carbon footprint. - But then again, this doesn't count because Coca Cola and everything they sell is 'sugary and fat' - I suppose getting off the couch is just too hard these days!

  13. #13

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by DJG View Post
    I suppose all their expenditure into eco-friendly plastics and similar is worth nothing when it comes to being 'ethical'. Thinking blowfill and crush bottles, efficient use of water and fridges, McGrath Breast Cancer foundation (Mount Franklin), Coca Cola Australia (and Indonesia) Foundation, donating to disaster zones and upgrading to PET bottles in to reduce carbon footprint. - But then again, this doesn't count because Coca Cola and everything they sell is 'sugary and fat' - I suppose getting off the couch is just too hard these days!
    If Hitler planted some trees it wouldn't make killing jews less undesirable

    Haha sorry, that was irresistible.

  14. #14

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valued View Post
    If Hitler planted some trees it wouldn't make killing jews less undesirable

    Haha sorry, that was irresistible.
    I get your humour but planting tree's and killing Jews isn't related.
    Perhaps I just don't care about ethical investing...? Each to their own of course.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Folks, we're getting off topic. Back to the CCL technical analysis please.

    If someone wants to start a separate thread on ethical investing, please feel free to do so.

  16. #16

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by Valued View Post
    I just wouldn't invest since softdrink is bad for you lol.

    That sounds stupid but I think a simple qualitative statement can give you some idea. Softdrink is bad for you, things that are bad for you are not as popular as they used to be and they are trending downwards as people aim to be healthier and therefore it's not a good investment. Further, why support products that make people unhealthy and kill them in the long run?
    CCL is well diversified beyond unhealthy products. As for the stock, it seems to be testing resistance at 12.00. A break through here can see it going back down to about 11.40, which is where the enxt point of resistance seems to be.

  17. #17

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Entry was triggered today so here's the details and thought process.

    1. I am short the spi so only looking for short trades.
    2. MMA is down and compressed suggesting a fast move down is likely.
    3. Support at $12 has been tested 5 times so expected to fail soon.

    So decision is to look for short entry.

    Looking at a 1 day swing chart, the entry was set below the swing bottom at $12.04, with stop above swing top at $12.40. That gives 36c risk so need 72c move for 2:1 reward/risk.

    ccl 1 day swing.JPG

    Now check 2 day swing chart to see if 72c move is likely. The chart shows 3 down moves of around $1 in 8-9 days, so move of 72c is possible. It will also be at old resistance which is ok. If it was past resistance it would have been a deal breaker.

    ccl 2 day swing.JPG

    So order was placed. sell on stop at $12.04, if done buy on stop at $12.40, buy at limit $11.32, OCO.

    If the swing high was taken out, order would have been cancelled. It wasnt so order stayed in market and was triggered this morning. (the buyers on the 3rd gave it a good try but didnt push it far enough). Their stops are probably just below $12 so tomorrow will be interesting.

    Trailing stop based on 1 day swings and ATR will be used.

    40% of my trades lose money, so usual disclaimers apply.

    (Interesting observation, not criticism, but the trade suggested by skc would have been stopped out on the 3rd - a good example of how using swing charts and ranges to set triggers and stops can help avoid the whipsaw.)

    Also interesting is that if someone had on entered on 29th based on flag break then they would still be in if the stop was based on the high of the 19th - anyone take that entry ?
    Last edited by beachlife; 5th-December-2013 at 05:11 PM.
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  18. #18

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Your target of $11.32 lies below historical (dec 2011) support levels of around $11.45. What makes you think the stock can sink through that? Or are you going to tighten your stops around that area?

  19. #19

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    The target is only 4c past the support line I drew at 11.36 which is based on the swing charts. You can see that 11.45 doesnt really fit in with any of the swings. The target is also above the intra day spike that went through at that time. I think it might bounce around at that level for a while, not touch it and reverse, so at this stage dont plan to do anything special with the stop. If it gets to near that point my stop will be around 1:1 by then so there will be some profit to be made. It's got to stay under $12 first.

    ccl target.JPG

    ccl support.JPG
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  20. #20

    Default Re: CCL: Is this a bear flag?

    Looks like $12 support is gone, stop moved to $12.28.
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