Consensus stock recommendations on Commsec - Aussie Stock Forums

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  1. #1

    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Wynyard, Tasmania

    Default Consensus stock recommendations on Commsec

    Can anyone comment on how useful they find the consensus recommendations (based on 3 independent analysts apparently ) at https://research.comsec.com.au/TradingIdeas ?

  2. #2
    Off into the sunset Country Lad's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Fulltime travelling

    Default Re: Consensus stock recommendations on Commsec

    Steve, as well as the internet trading, I also use a full service broker who has helped me make a lot of money, particularly with IPOs and book builds. Also much of the research is helpfull.

    However, these services and the recommendations his firms makes on various companies are not related.

    In answer to your question, motorbikes and ashtrays comes to mind.

    Country Lad
    2013 - celebrating 30 years trading and just about getting the hang of it.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Consensus stock recommendations on Commsec

    Thanks for your observations. I'm assuming you mean ashtrays are useless on motorbikes ? I can see that!

    Do you think they are useful at all if combined with DYO research? Or do you think they are priming their own pumps?
    I would have thought that the analysts were independent of COmmsec?

    Here's a bit more detail on the 3 analysts
    CBA Methodology:
    CBA Institutional Equities investment recommendations are determined by the covering analyst and reflect the analystís assessment of a stockís expected total shareholder return (TSR). Stock expected TSR is calculated as the difference between the analystís 12-month price target and the current share price plus the forecast dividend yield.

    Morningstar Methodology:
    Morningstar believes that buying shares of superior businesses and allowing them to compound over time is the surest way to create wealth in the stock market. The long term fundamentals of businesses, such as cash flow, competition, economic cycles, and stewardship, are Morningstar's primary focus because history has shown that market sentiment is fleeting, momentum can quickly reverse, and the herd is sometimes a dangerous crowd. Occasionally, this approach causes our recommendations to appear out of step, but willingness to be contrarian is an important source of outperformance and a benefit of Morningstarís independence. Extensive methodology documents are available on Morningstar's website.

    Consensus Methodology:
    Consensus recommendation include the number of recommendations in each band; and consensus recommendation revisions over the last 90 days. No detail on the individual analyst estimates or recommendations are published by Morningstar sites or redistributed to Morningstar clients.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Consensus stock recommendations on Commsec

    Quote Originally Posted by Rem Koolhaas
    The areas of consensus shift unbelievably fast; the bubbles of certainty are constantly exploding.
    I'd thoroughly recommend an examination of the past performance of these analysts previous recommendations prior to making any decision regarding suitability and efficacy (or lack thereof).
    i.e. what have been their consensus recommendations over the past 3-5 years and how did those recommendations fare?

    Also ask yourself these questions:

    From whence do these analysts derive their primary income?

    If they're so in tune with the financial markets, why do they need to work for somebody else?

    If any banks believe that this analysis is so good, why are they always so eager to lend money out at single digit annual percentage rates?

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