So far as I can tell, nobody outside US political circles seems to be taking the current US Government partial shutdown seriously. Everyone seems to be just assuming that a solution will be found and that a default will not occur.
The overall situation with US government finances seems to be akin to a machine etc that is wearing out. First it works perfectly. Then it gets hard to start, but after a couple of tries the engine springs to life. Slowly but surely it gets harder and harder. Then the day comes when it just won't go no matter what you do.
US finances seem to be heading that way. Each crisis seems a bit harder to resolve than the last one, and these "debt ceilings" are about as pointless as you can get given how often they are raised. The notion that they have an actual self-imposed limit is a bit like saying you're only drinking one beer. Then you go back to the bar each time the glass is empty. You only ever bought one beer at a time, but that doesn't stop you from getting drunk. Much the same with the US debt - they may "only" be adding a trillion $ here and there, but they add more as soon as the limit is reached which makes the notion of restraint misleading at best.
My thoughts are that nobody seems to be taking this seriously and the markets are an indication of just that. But when things aren't taken seriously, that's when big surprises often occur. If not this time, then sooner or later there's going to be a problem - just like the machine eventually breaks and stops working if you ignore the warning signs.