Do you think it would be useful to study the total return to shareholders over a period of 10 years - data taken from Commsec (Morningstar) - basically look back at what information was available 10 years ago and what companies would you have bought, and what would have been your 10 year return?
And then, if it was possible to learn anything from such a study, one would apply these lessons to choices made now?
Main question - if this has been discussed or done in the past, does anyone have a link?
If it hasn't been done, is it worth having a go?
All sorts of complications with share splits, takeovers and obviously missing the younger companies etc etc - but would one learn anything do you think?
So far I've downloaded the 10 year total returns and separated into industry groups
If the market was efficient for people holding for 10 years then you would think that the total return from different shares bought 10 years ago wouldn't vary all that much - but obviously there is enormous variation - does prove that the market is very inefficient for this time frame?
e.gs Bluescope -9% Steamships Trading +43%
NAB +4% CBA +15%
Hills Holdings -6% Adelaide Brighton +17%
FKP Property -11% United Overseas +41%
I would be using Commsec/Morningstar info only going back to 2003 - probably need info going back much further so that one could study what the different stocks would have looked like back then.
Are there so many variables that people think it's just not worth trying to do such a study?