Technical Analysts - can you explain this 18% rise with charts?

[Steve C]

Still strapped for time.

I hope these 3 charts are helpful.
Would like to spend more time on commentary but have to fly.
If you read in CONJUNCTION with Joules chart it should be a little clearer

Attachment 49022
Attachment 49023
Attachment 49021

Thanks Tech /A and everyone else who contributed - greatly appreciated.

Steve

[CanOz]

So Steve, what do you think? Can you tell for certain if an issue will move, the night before on an EOD chart?

CanOz

[barney]

it's the money management that's separates the really profitable ones over time.

Can you tell the night before.
In some setups yes you can --- generally continuation moves

But in THIS case no only anticipate.

Just highlighted a couple of points worth noting, particularly in this stocks case

NB. The stock is GRY ... not GIR ........ just to save any confusion


Just as an example of the difficulty of getting the above or any trade correct at the right hand edge of the chart, I've added 3 charts .......... and I defy anyone to know where they will head ahead of time ............. The only way to play these situations is to take a position as close to either the bottom or top of the range as you can (depending on your own directional bias) ...... and then do as Canoz says, and manage the risk ......... Taking a trade in the opposite direction of its short term direction is easier said than done of course


I cropped between a couple and a few bars off each chart ........ Two of the charts break out of their range in the days following, and one is still range bound .......... interesting exercise trying to pick which ones did what based on the current charts

[Steve C]

So Steve, what do you think? Can you tell for certain if an issue will move, the night before on an EOD chart?

CanOz

To be honest CanOz I don't have an adequete level of knowledge in relation to technical analysis to properly answer your question, as I said I have literally just begun learning T/A but to answer, no IMO you can never tell for "certain." I have to say at times after reading other threads it's easy to point out a breakout after it has happened but I haven't seen to many examples before it does which is what will make Barneys exercise above very interesting.

Cheers

Steve

[tech/a]

Barney
From what I see I'd say the last chart remains range bound.

[tech/a]

I'm presuming a breakout is above the Bollinger bands not simply a move
Within that containment.

[CanOz]

To be honest CanOz I don't have an adequete level of knowledge in relation to technical analysis to properly answer your question, as I said I have literally just begun learning T/A but to answer, no IMO you can never tell for "certain." I have to say at times after reading other threads it's easy to point out a breakout after it has happened but I haven't seen to many examples before it does which is what will make Barneys exercise above very interesting.

Cheers

Steve

Yup, I agree. The analysis trains your eye and gives you the confidence to trade the setups as they appear at the hard right edge. Well said Barney, by the way!

You don't need to be certain to be profitable though...You will have many losing trades.

CanOz

[barney]

Barney
From what I see I'd say the last chart remains range bound.

Well picked ........

Yup, I agree. The analysis trains your eye and gives you the confidence to trade the setups as they appear at the hard right edge. Well said Barney, by the way!

You don't need to be certain to be profitable though...You will have many losing trades.

CanOz

Cheers M8.


The right hand edges of each chart are currently as follows ........

NB. The middle chart is actually of GRY without the "break out bars" included ........ It seemed a good example of how difficult these things can be to see "before" the event.

Results ......
Chart one .... initially broke down out of its range
Chart two (GRY) as we now know, broke up out of its range
Chart three, as Tech noted, is still range bound, and to the naked eye looks weak to me, but who knows

[tech/a]

GRY going ahead nicely I note

[Joules MM1]

some interesting ideas in here.....the thread has morfed from answering the question explaining a simple rise in price to how to frame trend and consolidation etc......

live prices, a kinda what-happened is a good idea to continue as i'm sure there are many mouthless eyes viewing

while we keep an eye on the OP GRY price, to the point: who has the next chart?

[barney]

some interesting ideas in here.....the thread has morfed from answering the question explaining a simple rise in price to how to frame trend and consolidation etc......

live prices, a kinda what-happened is a good idea to continue as i'm sure there are many mouthless eyes viewing

while we keep an eye on the OP GRY price, to the point: who has the next chart?

Howdy Joules .... I'll go again There are a couple of these I've been keeping an eye on lately.


This one has a News aspect to it as well, and throws up some more interesting stuff to watch/be careful of

I've again taken the last 5 days of trading off the chart .............. Who would even consider trading the chart from 5 days ago!!

[barney]

Day after on the above chart .............. That was easy to see coming

Some boats are leakier than others


NB Company called a Trading Halt at the end of that spike ............ (Directors getting nervous ............ part of their announcement states .....

A number of assays have been received from some of the holes drilled, however the complete set and the necessary interpretation is not yet available. The directors believe that the information to be released has limited share price sensitivity.

Interesting ......... If they already know the results are not particularly sensitive, why have they not been released?

[barney]

So management place a Trading Halt ..... then announce to the market while the Trading Halt is in place, that the results look pretty average ....... Oh dear

Chart next day after initial assay results are announced ............... Lots of traders crucified on the open with more Stops being hit than a City train ....

Hang on ...... price starts rising again ............ closes on its high of the day ..... interesting.

[barney]

Price continues up ........ starting to get smellier by the minute

[tech/a]

Price continues up ........ starting to get smellier by the minute

Lets take out the conspiracy theories and look at price.

For it to rise we need to see an exhaustion of supply.
The very high volume large range day got rid of a lot of supply.
Price gapped down and has continued to rise from the low of the impulse bar.

The question is
Has supply exhausted---as it gets closer to the High we will see whats left.
So its pretty simple to trade.
Buy at the low end of the impulse bar and wait for the train
OR
Buy on a lower than impulse buy bar clearence of the high of that bar
Particularly if it gaps through the high.
Stop at the low of the bar for a wait and see
OR At the bottom of the gap for a break out.

If massive volume then look for retracements as supply will still be dominant.
Have no idea which stock it is keep us up to date.

[barney]

Lets take out the conspiracy theories and look at price.

For it to rise we need to see an exhaustion of supply.
The very high volume large range day got rid of a lot of supply.
Price gapped down and has continued to rise from the low of the impulse bar.

The question is
Has supply exhausted---as it gets closer to the High we will see whats left.
So its pretty simple to trade.
Buy at the low end of the impulse bar and wait for the train
OR
Buy on a lower than impulse buy bar clearence of the high of that bar
Particularly if it gaps through the high.
Stop at the low of the bar for a wait and see
OR At the bottom of the gap for a break out.

If massive volume then look for retracements as supply will still be dominant.
Have no idea which stock it is keep us up to date.

Tech ... The stock is a Spec (THR)...... I'm more than happy for you to disect the price action and agree with what you say, but don't discount the possibility of a little conspiracy

Knowledge is powerful, and when knowledge involves money, it becomes corruptible, on all levels. If you can explain the spike on my first chart with price action alone, I'll be very surprised (It looked more like a Short than a Long)

All that aside, my main reason for posting was to give Steve an example of News (or lack of news), giving an alternative outcome to a given scenario.

Cheers,


Last chart as of todays close ....


More news ...... Assay results now appear quite good

Traders push it higher on open, milk it, and leave the late buyers holding the Baby ...... closing on the Lows. (Thats the Conspiracy version ...)

The stock may well continue higher after the dust settles, but my main point is ..... who knew to Pump the stock up 50% two days before a News release ...... and a news release which was apparently "not price sensitive" according to Management?? ............... Make of it what you will, but it is interesting.

[tinhat]

some interesting ideas in here..... i'm sure there are many mouthless eyes viewing

Yes, it has been a very educational discussion. Thank you to the contributors. Will read tonight's contributions later on.

[tech/a]

Tech ... The stock is a Spec (THR)...... I'm more than happy for you to disect the price action and agree with what you say, but don't discount the possibility of a little conspiracy

Knowledge is powerful, and when knowledge involves money, it becomes corruptible, on all levels. If you can explain the spike on my first chart with price action alone, I'll be very surprised (It looked more like a Short than a Long)

All that aside, my main reason for posting was to give Steve an example of News (or lack of news), giving an alternative outcome to a given scenario.

Cheers,


Last chart as of todays close ....


More news ...... Assay results now appear quite good

Traders push it higher on open, milk it, and leave the late buyers holding the Baby ...... closing on the Lows. (Thats the Conspiracy version ...)

The stock may well continue higher after the dust settles, but my main point is ..... who knew to Pump the stock up 50% two days before a News release ...... and a news release which was apparently "not price sensitive" according to Management?? ............... Make of it what you will, but it is interesting.

But your missing completely whats going on here.
While Supply is filling any buyers that step up to the plate price is rising and has risen out of immediate consolidation.
This supply will either be defeated as in bought out.
OR it will continue to enter at higher prices
OR it will stop being placed in the market.

It is NOW that the astute trader will be analysing the right side of the chart.
If this supply dries up then there will be another strong move up.

[CanOz]

But your missing completely whats going on here.
While Supply is filling any buyers that step up to the plate price is rising and has risen out of immediate consolidation.
This supply will either be defeated as in bought out.
OR it will continue to enter at higher prices
OR it will stop being placed in the market.

It is NOW that the astute trader will be analysing the right side of the chart.
If this supply dries up then there will be another strong move up.

Yeah, I agree with tech here. Why was there supply? There was a gap, a point to take some profit. The price comes back to fill the gap and if there is demand from those that missed out on the first impulse, can they overcome supply?

Barney, you may be right about manipulation, but don't let it cloud your judgement on what the price action can tell you.

CanOz

[barney]

But your missing completely whats going on here.
While Supply is filling any buyers that step up to the plate price is rising and has risen out of immediate consolidation.
This supply will either be defeated as in bought out.
OR it will continue to enter at higher prices
OR it will stop being placed in the market.

It is NOW that the astute trader will be analysing the right side of the chart.
If this supply dries up then there will be another strong move up.

No your missing my point Tech. Steves original question involved "Can we see these Spikes coming and take advantage of them" before the fact

I think we all agree that mostly its pretty difficult to see without the use of hindight.

My ramblings on about the "conspiracy" of whether this stock was subject to a little insider knowledge was purely for a bit of poetic licence in making it into a good story. In this case, I think its pretty obvious "somebody" had early access to information that the general punter didn't.

Now that the price action is "out in the open", of course we can start trading it using "regular" techniques, and happy for you to follow on with that now as it will be a good exercise in how to go about it from here. Hope that clears up any confusion.
Cheers.