The Secret is that there are no Secrets

[tech/a]

In reply to some comments I made on the One Good trade thread of Can Oz.

There are NO SECRETS and here they are!

Firstly ALL analysis "works" in a bull market. Anyone can make a profit in a strongly trending bull market--just ask your local taxi driver.

Its pretty common knowledge and one of the TRUE truisms of trading/investing that the market will trend 30% of the time and either distribute or accumulate in consolidations during the other times--70 %.

Its also true that there will be trends in sometime frame at any one time--during consolidations.

So if we are going to trade/invest profitably we best be able to recognise that we need to find a trend 2 bars or more--in a time frame so we can profit.

Our analysis---at best--- points us to set-ups which give us the ability to anticipate price action both--- Fundamental and Technical. At best its a 50/50 result over very long periods but by identifying where we are in a move (Consolidation or Trend) in a time frame we can be better prepared to trade or invest in the time frame chosen.

We should be constantly looking for set-ups which point to a trend --- be it within a lower time-frame in a consolidation or a breakout in any time frame.

Most trends last longer than expected and most consolidations resist breaking out in either direction longer than expected.
In the short term we can identify time periods which are likely to trend in a direction for a number of bars ( Trend or Counter trend trades).This can swing the odds in our favour---giving us one string to the bow of profit---anticipation.

Radge once said that " It doesn't matter if your wrong---only how long you stay wrong "

So the best way to minimise loss through being wrong too long is to have either a stop loss---OR a mechanism in your analysis which tells you that your analysis is wrong---quick enough to mitigate risk.

"Let your winners run"
The next string to the bow. You need to have either an anticipated target OR a mechanism to determine the end of your trading trend in your time frame which maximises your time in a trade in your chosen direction.

You see there are ONLY 3 ways (Other than Arbitrage) That you can profit from your Trading/Investing.

More aggregate wining profitable trades than aggregate losing trades.
OR
Bigger aggregate Winning trades to Aggregate losing trades.
OR
A combination of both.

So in that thread I mentioned that it doesn't matter if you find your analysis doesn't pan out or you read it wrong.
The reason.

If you know the above and you've put those understandings in place you'll be trading time frames and set-ups that in the long run will deliver you positive expectancy through your trade management and the understanding that there are NO SECRETS.

The traders trap is to constantly buy that new book or try that new trading technique
in the hope that it will find and give an EDGE.

That edge is staring you in the face
REGARDLESS OF METHOD USED.

[wayneL]

The secret is to sell secrets... that aren't.

[tech/a]

Exactly, that's the 'hedge' that even good traders use to generate income when their systems don't.

CanOz

Dont know why i waste my time.

[tech/a]

My time is done here.
An apt thread to leave on.

Oh if you wish to learn Steidlmayer go to CBOT
Site and download his work.
Maybe you will learn something that you think you need to know.

[Timmy]

My time is done here.
An apt thread to leave on.

Oh if you wish to learn Steidlmayer go to CBOT
Site and download his work.
Maybe you will learn something that you think you need to know.

tech - you contactable via twitter ? Or you going to stay active on the chartist?
PM if you prefer

Cheers

[craft]

To show I'm not in disagreement with Tech on his thesis, only his demeaning and at times ignorant behavior...here is an article saying the same thing...

Cheers,


CanOz

There’s nothing of permanent value that is secret. To be successful we need to take the big picture stuff – discipline, patience, general knowledge, maths of probability and positive expectancy, risk management blah blah blah and apply it.

Applying it allows us to find temporary pockets of value to exploit and to be adaptive to find new opportunities as old ones dry up. In investing most temporary value is kept secret because it is eroded by sharing and it is normally more valuable to exploit it then sell it.

Regardless of your approach the permanent values of investing are the same and you need to find your own temporary value to exploit. The tools for finding the temporary value can be vastly different. 100’s of different approaches and they will all work or fail depending on how well you apply them in accordance with the universal non-secret big picture foundation of successful investing.

Not sure why the duck takes the approach he does against people who use different tools – It’s a shame.

[tech/a]

Not sure why the duck takes the approach he does against people who use different tools – It’s a shame.

That edge is staring you in the face
REGARDLESS OF METHOD USED .

What approach is that?

You and others dont READ what I post you PRESUME my stance is

against people who use different tools

Which leads me to

Dont know why I waste my time.

Im blunt,obnoxious and dont suffer fools.
But you will get a straight answer even though some think the answers are riddles!!
And I dont charge.
But after 12000 posts------

[burglar]

...
But you will get a straight answer even though some think the answers are riddles!!
And I dont charge.
But after 12000 posts------

Some of us here on the sidelines are listening and learning.

[Junior]

Great post Tech. Don't leave.

[Knobby22]

Not this little black duck!!

From Samantha Dickinson: Where does the phrase not this little black duck originate? It’s used quite extensively in Australia.

A I had no idea, so I asked subscribers. Lots of people responded. Several Americans wrote to say that it is by no means unknown in the US, though to judge from the number of replies, much less common than in Australia, where some subscribers have confirmed it is often heard.

It is used as an indication that the speaker is not so stupid as he is being taken to be, or that he or she is too wise to the ways of the world to be taken in by something or to agree to doing something that is against his or her best interests.

The consensus is that it does come from the Warner Bros Daffy Duck cartoons, Daffy, of course, being a small black duck who used it as his catchphrase. Quite why Australians took this particular character to their hearts is a topic for some sociologist in need of a thesis.

I would hesitate to suggest that Australians found something of themselves in Daffy — even the Warner Bros’ site says of him: “As his personality gained depth at the hands of Warner Bros cartoons’ directors, the little black duck became more self-analytical, competitive, peevish, paranoid, and neurotic”. But it goes on more positively: “Daffy, like the Greek hero Sisyphus, is a victim of injustice who continuously protests. And it’s his refusal to surrender his will to the whims of the conspiring universe that makes him heroic”.

From http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-duc1.htm

[Boggo]

Some of us here on the sidelines are listening and learning.

+ 1

[5oclock]

Some of us here on the sidelines are listening and learning.

+ 1

[Steve C]

+ 1

+2

I really enjoy tech's insights - as a new member here, is tech a well known figure in the stock broking market?

[tech/a]

Still waiting...

The reply is in the post

Our analysis---at best--- points us to set-ups which give us the ability to anticipate price action both--- Fundamental and Technical. At best its a 50/50 result over very long periods but by identifying where we are in a move (Consolidation or Trend) in a time frame we can be better prepared to trade or invest in the time frame chosen.

VSA and my own findings related to it are my chosen tool.
It doesnt matter what tool you use. Read the content of the post above and one day the light will switch on.

Until it does youll be looking at every form of analysis known and written about AS I DID,and many here still do or are doing.

It applies to FUNDAMENTAL traders as well.
It applies to MEAN REVERSION traders as well.
It applies to every single Trader/Investor.

[Boggo]

+2

... is tech a well known figure in the stock broking market?

No he isn't Steve C but he could certainly teach a few of them a thing or two.
He seems to have a fairly sensitive bullsh!t detector, gets to the point, approaches the market as a business rather than a hobby and tells it how it is which ruffles a few feathers.

He had the runs on the board nearly 10 years ago, read the posts on here...
http://www.compuvision.com.au/vBulle...hread.php?t=19

[Vesupria]

The reply is in the post



VSA and my own findings related to it are my chosen tool.
It doesnt matter what tool you use. Read the content of the post above and one day the light will switch on.

Until it does youll be looking at every form of analysis known and written about AS I DID,and many here still do or are doing.

It applies to FUNDAMENTAL traders as well.
It applies to MEAN REVERSION traders as well.
It applies to every single Trader/Investor.

Couldn't agree more with this, and the sentiment / message that was in the original post in this thread (for those that looked and found it). Well said all round, Tech/A.

[skc]

Until it does youll be looking at every form of analysis known and written about AS I DID,and many here still do or are doing.

I must admit it was a lightbulb moment for me, going to a 2-hr free seminar by Nick Radge 3 years ago and hearing about expectancy fo the first time. All newbies fluffing around with various tools and fancy charts should learn that first without a doubt.

BUT

Understanding expectancy is only a necessary but not sufficient condition for trading success. Having a good grasp on expectancy alone doesn't make you money. You still need a trading methodology that works. Otherwise, random entries coupled with 2% risk management rule and some trailling stop to let profit run would work for everyone. I am open to that being the case (probably true in a bull market) but have yet to see the proof.

It appears CanOz is looking to refine his methodology (whatever that is), but you keep telling him to understand expectancy (which I doubt that he doesn't know it already)... it just seems like you are talking pass each other.

It applies to MEAN REVERSION traders as well.

Except they probably don't let profit run...

[notting]

In this market you almost go long or short anything and just wait for the profit, forget the stop!
And, whilst sitting at home on your little computer reading a billion reports and trying to add it all up.
In the numbers game are the odds with or against you?
It's a bit tough to compete with this
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47990825
Which is kind of how and why tech analysis was born!
Just seeing that all the moves have been made before you even get the report/news.
All you can do is hitch hike and make sure you can open the door from the inside when you get a ride!

[sinner]

Thanks for the link to the compuvision forum, Boggo. I've been looking for techs older material for my notes for a while, and never managed to find a working link.

Your link was no exception, but it did contain URLs from which I used archive.org to get copies:

http://web.archive.org/web/20051028174702/http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000091.html
http://web.archive.org/web/20041217101051/http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000155.html

[tech/a]

but you keep telling him to understand expectancy (which I doubt that he doesn't know it already)...

Ive had a look back over One Good Trade and this thread and cant see me even mentioning this to Can oz

While it is mentioned though 90% of the world have a wrong view of expectancy.
Most think its the expectation that price will move from X-Y while risking Z in a trade.
Infact its the Cumulative X and Ys and Zds that give a result after a meaningful number of trades.
Positive or negative expectancy of the way you trade.

Can Oz I doubt would know his as I would doubt 99% here know theirs.
T/H would be an exception.

Except they probably don't let profit run...

If they know what they are doing they will know how long that is.