U.S. stock market on verge of collapse?

[Joules MM1]

http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.co...es_-_Full_Site

A billion-dollar daily shot in the arm for the American economy
August 17, 2012 | Posted by Ken Cohen

excerpt

The story notes that Merrill Lynch claims raw gains from domestic energy supplies were $900 million per day in April – a 1,300 percent increase from $70 million per day in January 2010. By the end of 2012, Merrill Lynch expects the daily gains from domestic supplies to be over $1 billion.

Unfortunately the report is not online, which is too bad because the authors provide valuable detail about what they see as the great economic contribution of the current energy revolution. They peg that contribution at 2.2 percent of U.S. gross domestic product – an astounding figure in a $15 trillion economy.

[CanOz]

http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.co...es_-_Full_Site

A billion-dollar daily shot in the arm for the American economy
August 17, 2012 | Posted by Ken Cohen

excerpt

More great stuff from you mate, well done...great link!

CanOz

[white_goodman]

What are we talking about - the participation rate or Not in labour Force figures?? My charts refer to NiLF......?

not in labour force as a stock means nothing...that graph basically just shows the population increase over that time.. the dip recently in the participation rate which actually shows the real effects of those not in the labour force.. show any western world country (thats had population increase) over the last 50 years and you will get the exact same graph, the analysis is in unemployment rates and participation rates.. this is very basic economics

[Joules MM1]

oh, you Baby Doomers are going to enjoy getting your cynical teeth into this one......

http://www.businessinsider.com/an-ec...aign=moneygame

The Economy May Be Going Into A Phase That's A Complete Reversal Of The Last 3 Years



Joe Weisenthal|Oct. 23, 2012, 9:01 AM


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/an-ec...#ixzz2A8BXxROv

[Uncle Festivus]

It was fun while it lasted.......



Just need the 3pm Benny Bump........

]

[Porper]

Funny how the doom and gloom brigade appear when the market heads lower by more than 1.0%.

We may well be in for a retracement... but it would actually be positive after the massive rise. Markets don't head higher in a straight line movement. Looking at the attached chart shows clearly that the uptrend is still very strong and showing no signs of a major top.

Theoretically the DOW could head down to 9200 and still be in a bull phase.

No need to panic yet, not by a long way i.m.o. Dips continue to be bought into so until this changes the bullish case remains.

[white_goodman]

Funny how the doom and gloom brigade appear when the market heads lower by more than 1.0%.

We may well be in for a retracement... but it would actually be positive after the massive rise. Markets don't head higher in a straight line movement. Looking at the attached chart shows clearly that the uptrend is still very strong and showing no signs of a major top.

Theoretically the DOW could head down to 9200 and still be in a bull phase.

No need to panic yet, not by a long way i.m.o. Dips continue to be bought into so until this changes the bullish case remains.

im one of the most cynical people here, and its blatantly obvious that we are in a firm uptrend and we are going higher, dont argue with the Fed and the will of every world institution to inflate their way out of this.

[MrBurns]

im one of the most cynical people here, and its blatantly obvious that we are in a firm uptrend and we are going higher, dont argue with the Fed and the will of every world institution to inflate their way out of this.

Probably right......

[white_goodman]

Probably right......

all you can play is the playbook theyve put in front of this, as a classical liberal im totally against it, but it is what it is...

[Uncle Festivus]

Funny how the doom and gloom brigade appear when the market heads lower by more than 1.0%.

We may well be in for a retracement... but it would actually be positive after the massive rise. Markets don't head higher in a straight line movement. Looking at the attached chart shows clearly that the uptrend is still very strong and showing no signs of a major top.

Theoretically the DOW could head down to 9200 and still be in a bull phase.

No need to panic yet, not by a long way i.m.o. Dips continue to be bought into so until this changes the bullish case remains.

Hi Porper, welcome back!

'Funny how the doom and gloom brigade appear when the market heads lower by more than 1.0%.' - no, I've been here at every market top

'No need to panic yet, not by a long way i.m.o.' - where have I heard that before -

“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.”
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

'Dips continue to be bought into so until this changes the bullish case remains.' - How can you tell this? Didn't get any bounce out of that little sell off, which by the way was caused by some annoying little thing called 'Earnings' being worse-than-expected. Refer to earnings chart above.



Where's the bounce? Forward earnings guidance was the killer though...........

[Uncle Festivus]

im one of the most cynical people here, and its blatantly obvious that we are in a firm uptrend and we are going higher, dont argue with the Fed and the will of every world institution to inflate their way out of this.

Yes, that's the popular thinking, but where has the $100BILLION (so far....) or so in Fed QE3 gone? the Dow is down 500 pts during this period? Don't fight the Fed but what if it's not working? What if they are already in recession and earnings have peaked and heading lower? It's an earnings led correction.....not much headroom left?



Where's the volume?

Is it any co-incidence that we get several days of 100 plus plunges and we see news that the Fed is going to bolster QE3?? They are clearly worried about something.........the FOMC meeting will probably be good for about 100 pts or so?

[notting]

What the market does after the QE3 announcments is not the way to measure the effects of QE.
What the market does leading up to the announcment is more to the point.

[Uncle Festivus]

What the market does after the QE3 announcments is not the way to measure the effects of QE.
What the market does leading up to the announcment is more to the point.

Well it's clearly been totally ineffective at keeping stock prices up?

[notting]

I think the idea is that it is supposed to be a social policy ie get unemployment down from close to 10% to now around %7.8 and falling as well as housing going which is a big driver. Housing is also showing green shoots and even seedlings! QE is achieving those headlines for the moment.

[Porper]

Well it's clearly been totally ineffective at keeping stock prices up?

Not quite sure how you can say the U.S indices are weak? Take a look at my chart above Uncle. Looks pretty strong to me, even if we do see a downturn for a few weeks...still positive . As for QE3...everybody and their dog new it was coming so was built into the prior rise.

All I would say is that if you firmly belive we have reached a major top then short like hell!! Very dangerous i.m.o at this early stage.

[white_goodman]

Yes, that's the popular thinking, but where has the $100BILLION (so far....) or so in Fed QE3 gone? the Dow is down 500 pts during this period? Don't fight the Fed but what if it's not working? What if they are already in recession and earnings have peaked and heading lower? It's an earnings led correction.....not much headroom left?



Where's the volume?

Is it any co-incidence that we get several days of 100 plus plunges and we see news that the Fed is going to bolster QE3?? They are clearly worried about something.........the FOMC meeting will probably be good for about 100 pts or so?

if you are so convicted you should be short, no?

you may not realise this but you arent a contrarian, as much as that pains you, the retail crowd have largely missed the whole run up

[Uncle Festivus]

if you are so convicted you should be short, no?

you may not realise this but you arent a contrarian, as much as that pains you, the retail crowd have largely missed the whole run up

Conversely, you have been buying,yes?

It doesn't 'pain' me at all.

BOSTON (AP) -- Even as stock prices rose again in September, investors withdrew money from stock mutual funds at the fastest pace of the year, marking the seventh straight month that withdrawals have exceeded deposits.

Who's buying then? Insiders are selling....

[Porper]

Conversely, you have been buying,yes?

It doesn't 'pain' me at all.


Who's buying then? Insiders are selling....

I am fully invested right now and will continue to be until the trend reverses.

As for the "smart money" selling...well all I can say is that this has supposedly been the case throughout the whole of this bull market so far. Volume has been light I agree but the fact that strength continues is a fact that can't be disputed. I just don't see any reason to be looking for a major sell-off here....sorry to disappoint those that crave such a move.

[white_goodman]

Conversely, you have been buying,yes?

It doesn't 'pain' me at all.


Who's buying then? Insiders are selling....

ive been buying for about a year, its been good...

mutual funds are insiders? interesting..

[Uncle Festivus]

ive been buying for about a year, its been good...

mutual funds are insiders? interesting..

Have you bought this 'dip'? If you've been buying at any time since September 14th then you will be out of the money?

Who said mutual funds are insiders?